Polymarket Prices 83% Odds of September 16 Fed Rate Hike

MacroDigital FinanceDigital Finance
โดย 24/7 Wall St.·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Prediction market Polymarket now prices an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15 to 16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium and about 50% before the August CPI release. The move follows a hotter-than-expected August core CPI print of 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and Barclays reversed its forecast on August 31, 2026 to call for consecutive 25 basis point hikes. A hike on September 16 would be the first since 2023, ending a run in which Chair Kevin Warsh's Fed has held rates at five straight meetings with the federal funds upper bound at 3.75% since December 2025. Bitcoin trades at $77,293.66 and XRP at $1.37 as of September 12, 2026, with Bitcoin's correlation to rate-sensitive assets at a record high and XRP historically swinging harder on Fed decision days. Because the hike is already priced in, a delivered quarter-point move would likely draw only a modest reaction, while the 18% hold scenario carries the biggest surprise potential for both coins.

Impact on stocks 3

Financials · 1 stocks
Barclays PLC
BARC
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Barclays reversed its forecast to call for consecutive 25bp hikes, a rate-path call that is only context for the Fed-hike story.

Theme Impact 3

Off-coverage companies 1

PolymarketPrivate± Mixed
relevance

Related news

2

Evernorth Raises $30 Million from NH Investment & Securities to Buy XRP

Evernorth has secured $30 million in financing through a convertible bond from South Korea's NH Investment & Securities to fund XRP purchases and ecosystem-related activities. According to a Form 8-K filed with the SEC, the company issued $30 million of 4% convertible senior PIK notes maturing in 2031, in an agreement with NH Investment & Securities, which serves as trustee for Kyobo AIM Corporate Finance General Private Investment Trust No. 3. The financing is contingent on the completion of Evernorth's business combination with Armada Acquisition Corp. II, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, after which the company plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol XRPN. Evernorth already holds approximately 346.28 million XRP, and the tracked publicly listed companies hold a combined total of about 346.4 million XRP, worth roughly $489 million at current prices. Meanwhile, seven XRP ETFs hold about 1.1286 billion XRP, with weekly net inflows of roughly 6.34 million XRP, or about $8.99 million.
NADA NEWS·2hRead more →
2

Bitcoin Tops $81,000 as Short Squeeze Offsets Rate and Regulatory Pressure

Bitcoin surged above $81,000 on Saturday as a wave of short liquidations and renewed spot demand helped the cryptocurrency rebound from losses triggered by higher interest rates and a setback for U.S. crypto legislation. Bitcoin climbed as high as $81,702 on Sept. 18 after trading near $76,400 a day earlier, marking its first move above $80,000 since Sept. 7, and was trading at $81,309.4 as of 22:50 ET, up 5.62% for the day. The rebound followed a difficult week in which the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and the Bank of Japan followed with a quarter-point increase to 1.25%, its highest policy rate in 31 years, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $159 million of inflows on Sept. 17. A sharp short squeeze then accelerated Friday's rally, with roughly $192 million of leveraged crypto positions liquidated within one hour, including more than $183 million in shorts, of which Bitcoin shorts accounted for about $119 million. Regulatory uncertainty remains in focus after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act this week, though the CFTC has submitted a separate crypto market proposal to the White House Office of Management and Budget and the SEC introduced an innovation exemption giving qualifying platforms a five-year route to offer onchain trading in certain tokenized stocks without registering as securities exchanges.
Investing.com·6hRead more →

CleanSpark Prices $2.276B Senior Secured Notes Due 2031

CleanSpark said on Friday it priced $2.276B of 7.875% senior secured notes due 2031 at 98.5% of the principal amount. The offering is expected to close on September 25. Net proceeds will fund the remaining buildout costs of the Sandersville facility, reimburse certain prior equity contributions, and fund debt service reserves. The notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by CSRE Properties Sandersville, a wholly owned subsidiary of the issuer, and the company will provide a completion guarantee and fund any shortfall needed to complete the Sandersville facility. Shares rose 8.39%.
Seeking Alpha·12hRead more →