Barclays PLCBarclays reversed its forecast to call for consecutive 25bp hikes, a rate-path call that is only context for the Fed-hike story.

Prediction market Polymarket now prices an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15 to 16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium and about 50% before the August CPI release. The move follows a hotter-than-expected August core CPI print of 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and Barclays reversed its forecast on August 31, 2026 to call for consecutive 25 basis point hikes. A hike on September 16 would be the first since 2023, ending a run in which Chair Kevin Warsh's Fed has held rates at five straight meetings with the federal funds upper bound at 3.75% since December 2025. Bitcoin trades at $77,293.66 and XRP at $1.37 as of September 12, 2026, with Bitcoin's correlation to rate-sensitive assets at a record high and XRP historically swinging harder on Fed decision days. Because the hike is already priced in, a delivered quarter-point move would likely draw only a modest reaction, while the 18% hold scenario carries the biggest surprise potential for both coins.
Barclays PLCBarclays reversed its forecast to call for consecutive 25bp hikes, a rate-path call that is only context for the Fed-hike story.