Shell Flags Stronger Trading Despite Middle East Impact on Q2 Gas Output

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Shell said its integrated gas trading and optimization business is expected to perform significantly better than in the first quarter, helping offset lower production caused by the Middle East conflict. The company forecast integrated gas production of 610,000 to 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down sharply from 909,000 barrels in the first quarter, citing the impact of the conflict on Qatari volumes. LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to total 7.4 to 7.8 million tonnes, versus 7.9 million tonnes in the prior quarter. Upstream production is projected at 1.75 million to 1.85 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, broadly in line with the previous quarter, while marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be similar to the first quarter. In its chemicals and products business, Shell raised its indicative refining margin outlook to about 20 dollars per barrel from 17 dollars per barrel, and indicative chemicals margins are expected to improve to around 240 dollars per tonne from 139 dollars per tonne, though actual realized margins remain below benchmark margins due to market dislocations. Cash flow from operations will benefit from a 1 billion to 6 billion dollar working capital inflow, reflecting unprecedented commodity price volatility, with tax payments expected to total 2.6 billion to 3.4 billion dollars and financial derivative movements projected to range from a 1 billion dollar loss to a 4 billion dollar gain. Shell is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 30.

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Stronger trading in integrated gas and improved refining/chemicals margins boost earnings outlook.

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