Summary · why it matters
Krungsri Securities notes that Tesla is entering a historic turning point, transitioning from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a full-fledged AI and physical infrastructure platform. The company is using its existing automotive business as a key foundation in terms of capital, manufacturing plants, customer base, and large data repositories to pave the way for growth in the next decade. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, revenue from the automotive segment accounted for 88.9% of total revenue, while the energy storage business accounted for 11.1%. The United States market remained the main revenue source at 46.8%, followed by China at 16.6% and other regions at 36.7%. Three new growth engines include Robotaxi, which shifts the business model toward recurring revenue from autonomous ride-hailing services; the Optimus humanoid robot, which shares technology with the existing automotive business; and energy storage systems such as Megapack and Powerwall, which benefit from renewable energy and the expansion of data centers for AI. In the second quarter of 2026, Tesla posted revenue of 28.2 billion US dollars, growing 25.5% year on year and exceeding market expectations by 2% to 7%. Vehicle deliveries reached a record high of 480,126 units, up 25%, driving automotive revenue to 20.5 billion US dollars. The energy generation and storage business recorded revenue of 3.14 billion US dollars, up 13%, supported by installations of 13.5 gigawatt-hours, an increase of 41%. The services and other segment grew 50% to 4.6 billion US dollars. However, gross margin declined to 16.8%, below the market expectation of 19.5%, as operating expenses surged 47% to 4.35 billion US dollars due to accelerated investment in AI, Robotaxi, and Optimus. This caused the operating margin to fall to just 1.4%, and GAAP net income came in at 1.11 billion US dollars, down 5%. The market expects Tesla's total revenue in 2026 to be around 105.8 billion US dollars, growing 11.6%, but near-term profit remains under pressure from massive investment. Tesla projects capital expenditure in 2026 to exceed 25 billion US dollars, more than triple the level in 2025, to support AI compute systems, Cybercab, Optimus, and new production capacity expansion. As a result, profit and GAAP earnings per share in 2026 may contract slightly by 0.2% to 1.08 US dollars per share. Key risk factors include intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market, especially from Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers; operational risks for Robotaxi and Full Self-Driving related to technology, safety, and regulation; uncertainty surrounding Optimus, which is still in its early stages; pressure on cash flow from high investment; and a stock valuation that reflects high expectations, with a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 200 times. The Bloomberg consensus base-case target price for Tesla shares in 2026 is 389 US dollars, implying 19% upside, while the positive case is 600 US dollars, implying 83% upside. For investors with high risk tolerance, the investment strategy is to consider entering on technical support levels, with catalysts from vehicle delivery news, regulatory approval for Robotaxi in various states, or energy storage capacity expansion. From a technical perspective, if the price breaks above resistance at 350 US dollars, it has a chance to rise and test the level where a gap down previously opened at 365 US dollars. Short-term speculative trading is recommended, with a profit-taking level at 365 US dollars, support at 330 and 315 US dollars, and a stop-loss if the price falls below 310 US dollars. Thai investors can gain exposure through a depositary receipt named TSLA80 or invest directly in the underlying TSLA shares through Krungsri iGlobal.
Tesla Inc