Thai Oil points to volatile crude prices from Middle East factors and demand

CommodityGeopolitics
โดย ทันหุ้น·IRSA·Read original
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Thai Oil Public Company Limited notes that crude oil prices remain volatile amid positive signals in negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz, while risks persist in the Red Sea. A committee of Iran's parliament is considering a draft law that would ban vessels from the United States, Israel, and any country that causes harm to Iran from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Violators could face fines of up to 20 percent of the cargo value. Iran wants to collect shipping fees of around 5 to 7 percent, while Oman has proposed a 3 percent levy. Crude oil and condensate exports from major producers in the Arabian Gulf are starting to recover. Kpler data shows that combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran in July 2026 rose 2 percent month-on-month to 10.7 million barrels per day, but remain about 40 percent below pre-war levels. However, Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Energy Aspects reports that Saudi crude exports from the Yanbu terminal on July 20, 2026, fell by 0.8 million barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day, down from an average of 3.8 million barrels per day during April to June 2026, reflecting ongoing security risks. In addition, the Kulevi refinery owned by Black Sea Petroleum in Georgia has been sanctioned by the European Union after importing a total of 4.8 million barrels of Russian crude across six shipments from October 2025 to May 2026, which could temporarily reduce crude import demand.

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