Tisco expects government to extend Thai Chai Thai Plus by 1-2 months, pressuring retail stocks

MacroAnalystCommodity
โดย ทันหุ้น·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Tisco Securities said Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced on Friday that the government wants to extend the Thai Chai Thai Plus programme, which was originally scheduled to end in late September, using remaining budget funds. The research team expects the government may top it up with unused money from other measures under the original 200 billion baht budget ceiling, which should be enough to extend the programme by about one month, or 25 billion baht, or at most two months. Tisco's research team views the programme as negative for the commerce sector, especially retail businesses, because it prolongs the pressures the sector already faces. Same-store sales growth in July was negative across almost the entire group, with the exception of CPALL, which was supported by the tourism recovery even though its growth rate was only 1-2%. CPAXT, whose Makro was down 1% and Lotus's down 4%, and BJC, down 1%, continued to report negative same-store sales growth, and the research team expects those figures may remain weak in August as well. If the programme is extended through October or November, the weakness in same-store sales growth could carry over into fourth-quarter 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose to 100 US dollars a barrel for the first time since 23 July, and higher energy prices may be one of the key reasons the prime minister wants to extend the spending support programme. For retail operators already facing weak same-store sales growth, this factor will add pressure on margins through higher logistics, transport and utility costs, reinforcing the research team's view that 2026 remains a challenging year for the commerce group. It also believes high energy prices may lead the market to expect the Bank of Thailand to raise its policy rate sooner than anticipated. Under such a scenario, investment flows may rotate out of the economic recovery theme, which includes the commerce group as well as tourism, transport and healthcare, and into energy and banking stocks.

Impact on stocks 3

Consumer Staples▼ · 2 stocks
Berli Jucker PCL
BJC
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

BJC's same-store sales fell 1% and the Thai Chai Thai Plus extension prolongs weak retail demand, with high energy costs further pressuring margins.

CP Axtra Public Company Limited
CPAXT
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

CPAXT's Makro same-store sales fell 1% and Lotus's fell 4%, and the Thai Chai Thai Plus extension prolongs the retail weakness into Q4 2026.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▼ · 1 stocks
CP ALL Public Company Limited
CPALL
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

CPALL's same-store sales growth was only 1-2% and the programme extension prolongs retail-sector pressure, with higher energy costs adding margin pressure.

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