Berli Jucker PCL

Ms. Thapanee Techajareonvikul, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (BJC), revealed that Vietnam's overall economy is growing strongly, with the latest GDP at approximately 8.19% – 8.2%. This has driven MM Mega Market Vietnam's sales to grow 8.9% in dong terms, or approximately 5.9% in baht terms. Meanwhile, SSSG remains positive, and the profit margin expanded to 18.1%. After closing the deal on May 15, the company recorded a profit of 145 million baht, but recognized only 97 million baht on a time-proportionate basis. After deducting interest expenses of 32 million baht, the incremental net profit exceeded 60 million baht. In the third quarter, the company will begin recognizing 100% of the profit for the full quarter, which will be higher than in the second quarter. The company plans to increase Vietnam's business share to 50% of the total portfolio by 2040, up from the current 15%, and has plans to list Big C on the stock exchange within 3-5 years. Meanwhile, Thailand's retail business has passed its lowest point, with SSSG turning positive in August after a -3.5% decline in the second quarter. The company is also expanding its larger-format Mini Big C stores of 300 square meters to 120 branches by year-end, from the current 18 branches, and plans to increase production capacity by 30% over the next two years, with a total investment budget of 5,438 million baht.

BJC Group Public Company Limited (BJC) expects revenue in the second half of 2026 to continue growing from the first half, which saw total revenue of over 96.3 billion baht. This is supported by its glass and can packaging manufacturing business, which has orders booked through the end of the year, and it has locked in raw material prices until mid-2027. Meanwhile, Big C's same-store sales growth (SSSG) turned positive in August and is expected to improve further towards the end of the year. MM Mega Market Vietnam (MMVN) will recognize a full quarter of revenue in Q3 2026, with SSSG growing in double digits. The company maintains its plan to list Big C on a foreign stock exchange within 3-5 years and is seeking a strategic partner. At the same time, it is in negotiations to sell its Big C business in Cambodia to a Vietnamese partner.

A survey of second-quarter 2026 earnings among companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand found that 71 firms recorded net profit growth of more than 100% compared with the same period last year. TMT Steel Public Company Limited, or TMT, led the pack with net profit of 299.87 million baht, up 910.23% from 29.68 million baht. Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, followed with net profit of 326.31 million baht, up 838.35%, and Susco Public Company Limited, or SUSCO, posted net profit of 120.59 million baht, up 797.01%. Among large-cap stocks with profit growth above 100%, True Corporation reported net profit of 6.55 billion baht, up 222.68%; Berli Jucker Public Company Limited posted net profit of 2.88 billion baht, up 191.07%; PTT reported net profit of 52.52 billion baht, up 143.93%; SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.30 billion baht, up 128.15%; and PTT Exploration and Production reported net profit of 27.20 billion baht, up 101.23%.

Berli Jucker Public Company Limited reported second-quarter 2026 net profit surged 191.1% year-on-year to 2.882 billion baht, supported by improved underlying operating performance and gains from the sale of unused assets. Normalised net profit from operations rose 12.8% to 1.228 billion baht. Total revenue came in at 49.021 billion baht, up 6.8%, with the packaging group the standout performer, posting revenue of 7.452 billion baht, up 29.7%, and earnings before interest and tax up 32.3% to 1.257 billion baht. The modern retail group recorded total revenue of 32.241 billion baht, down 1.0%, with same-store sales down 2.1%, but the Town Center business recovered with an occupancy rate of 92.4%. The company is confident the second half will recover in line with improving consumer confidence seen in June.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported that gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter but above the market forecast of 1.7%. The main support came from private investment, which grew strongly in line with investment promotion applications, while private consumption slowed to 1.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter amid higher domestic energy prices, and government spending was weak because disbursement had already been accelerated earlier. Yuanta Securities expects consumption to recover clearly in the third quarter from the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures, and government spending to accelerate toward the end of the fiscal year. It maintains a positive view on construction contractors, power plants, industrial estates, retail, and food and beverage, citing stocks CK, STECON, GUNKUL, GULF, FORTH, SAMART, EPG, BJC, CPALL and CBG. The planning agency also raised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.0 to 2.5% from 1.5 to 2.5%, and lowered its inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.0% from 2.0 to 3.0%, which helps ease pressure on monetary policy tightening.

Krungsri Securities said BJC reported second-quarter 2026 core profit of 1.18 billion baht, up 5 percent from a year earlier and 24 percent from the previous quarter, close to analyst expectations. Total sales rose 13 percent from a year earlier to 43.7 billion baht, supported by the consolidation of MM Vietnam and the packaging business, where sales grew a strong 30 percent from a year earlier. Big C Thailand remained weak, with sales down 3 percent from a year earlier as same-store sales fell 3 percent amid soft purchasing power for non-food items and the impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus programme. Consolidated gross margin was stable at 20.2 percent from a year earlier, improving in almost every business thanks to economies of scale and a better product mix, while selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales declined to 20.3 percent from 20.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 due to the MM Vietnam consolidation. Including after-tax special gains from asset sales and foreign exchange gains totalling 1.70 billion baht, net profit was 2.88 billion baht, up 191 percent from a year earlier and 173 percent from the previous quarter. BJC announced a first-half 2026 dividend of 0.17 baht per share, representing a yield of 1.1 percent, with the ex-dividend date on 27 August. The analyst maintained a buy rating and a 2027 target price of 17.20 baht, viewing BJC as a value stock whose core earnings are beginning to recover from the MM Vietnam consolidation and efficiency improvements in Thailand. Core profit is expected to rise 6 percent and 7 percent from a year earlier in 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the stock trades at 2026 and 2027 price-to-earnings ratios of only 14.1 times and 13.2 times. The one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is about one standard deviation below its three-year average, suggesting concerns are already largely priced in, and the analyst sees this as an accumulation opportunity.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Dao Securities expects BJC's normalised profit for the second quarter of 2026 at 1.3 billion baht, up 13% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue is projected to increase 11% year-on-year to 43 billion baht, driven by the first full quarter of booking MM Mega Market Vietnam revenue and continued strong growth in the packaging business, even though Big C same-store sales remain down about 3% year-on-year. Net profit also gets a boost from higher other income from land sales. The broker maintains its 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts at 4.4 billion baht and 4.6 billion baht respectively, keeps a buy rating, but raises the target price to 18.50 baht from 17.00 baht, based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 times.

Several brokers view MOSHI as the standout in the retail sector. Maybank Securities forecasts second-quarter 2026 profit at 154 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3.5%, the highest in the group. KGI Securities and DBS Vickers Securities emphasize recovering consumer confidence and ongoing branch expansion plans. In the hotel sector, ERW is expected to post a 25% year-on-year profit increase in the second quarter of 2026, supported by short-haul tourists and HOP INN. CENTEL is projected to earn 120 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, and is benefiting from positive sentiment around year-end domestic events. For large-cap stocks, PTT is seen as having its core business returning to a recovery cycle. Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit in 2026 to grow 66%, with the stock trading at a low price-to-book value of just 0.95 times. TRUE is forecast to achieve a new record high for second-quarter 2026 profit, reaching 6.8 billion baht, a 232% year-on-year surge, driven by higher margins and reduced competition. In logistics, SJWD is expected to report normalized second-quarter 2026 profit of 337 million baht, up 18% year-on-year, the highest in five quarters. UOB Kay Hian has upgraded BJC to a buy recommendation, citing an improving utilization outlook for its glass bottle production. Additionally, AIRA Securities notes that GANFENG23, which references Ganfeng Lithium Group, one of the world's largest lithium producers, has a forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 of just 7.8 times, well below its five-year historical average of 14.4 times, with earnings expected to recover as lithium carbonate prices rise to 160,000 yuan per ton.

Berli Jucker Public Company Limited, or BJC, is likely to see normalised profit in the second quarter of 2026 recover by 14% compared to the same period last year, faster than the market had anticipated. Yuanta Securities estimates normalised profit at 1.2 billion baht and total net profit as high as 2.9 billion baht, which includes an extraordinary gain from land sales of about 1.6 billion baht. Core revenue is expected at 43 billion baht, growing 14% from the previous quarter and 13% from a year earlier, supported by the acquisition of a retail business in Vietnam, MMVN, since mid-May. Meanwhile, the packaging business is growing strongly by 30% from last year after competitors reduced production capacity and major customers placed more orders. Gross profit margin is expected to increase by 30 basis points, and the effective tax rate is expected to fall to 18% due to the use of tax incentives. The broker has raised its normalised profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 7 to 10% to 4.8 billion baht and 5.3 billion baht respectively, upgraded its recommendation to buy, and set a new target price of 18.00 baht, noting that the current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 11 to 12 times and below book value.

Asia Plus Securities forecasts that Berli Jucker Public Company Limited, or BJC, will post a net profit in the second quarter of 2026 as high as 2.9 billion baht, surging 189% from the same period last year. The main drivers are an extraordinary gain from the sale of 19 land plots worth 1.64 billion baht and growth in the packaging business, both glass and cans. Normalised profit is expected at 1.22 billion baht, up 9% year-on-year. Although the modern retail business under the Big C brand slowed due to a roughly 3% drop in same-store sales and some store closures, total revenue still expanded 2%, supported by packaging. The gross profit margin is expected to rise to 20.1% from 19.7% in the second quarter of 2025. If in line with expectations, first-half profit would account for 52% of the full-year 2026 profit forecast of 4.5 billion baht. The research team maintains a buy recommendation and a target price of 17.80 baht, viewing the share price as still lagging the commerce sector, while same-store sales in July have started to recover thanks to economic stimulus measures.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Three brokers expect the Thai stock market to move sideways this afternoon in a range of 1,644 to 1,657 points. Asia Plus says the index has limited downside after the market has already priced in a base-case US tariff of 15–20 percent. It is also watching today's cabinet meeting, which may extend the deadline for appealing state welfare card decisions to 20 September 2026 and prepare assistance for those who do not qualify through the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme at 1,000 baht per month from August to September 2026, a slight positive for grassroots retail stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, and CRC. ASL views the morning session as edging higher on buying in large-cap stocks and the parts sector after South Korea reported a 52.3 percent rise in exports, but selling in banking stocks weighed after second-quarter earnings reports. Globlex says the index is consolidating above all EMA lines, supported by buying in energy, construction materials, and ICT, but has yet to break resistance at 1,655 points due to a lack of new catalysts. The index closed the morning session at 1,651.45 points, up 5.45 points or 0.33 percent, with turnover of 53.53 billion baht.