The Tisco Economic and Strategic Analysis Center estimates that Thailand's economic growth in the fourth quarter will come in at only 1.2%, the lowest of the year. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at Tisco ESU, said that although total exports in the second quarter expanded by 20%, actual manufacturing output grew by only 0.1%, reflecting that goods produced for domestic consumption are being displaced by cheap Chinese products entering through e-commerce platforms. Meanwhile, the share of imported goods and components in Thailand has jumped from 48% in 2018 to about 70% today, and the manufacturing index for the computer and electronics group stands at only 71, or 30% below its base year. Tisco believes the Thai economy is entering a prolonged Japanification-style slump, with the share of the population aged 65 and over reaching 14%, matching Japan, and Thailand's per capita income at about 20,700 US dollars compared with roughly 37,000 US dollars in Japan. It expects it will take more than 10 years to restore growth potential above 3%, and has revised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.1%. Komsorn Prakobphol, head of the Tisco Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, assesses that the 10-year US Treasury yield has passed its peak and will hold steady at 5% through the end of the year. If bond yields stay in line with expectations, the S&P 500 index could rise to 7,800-8,000 points by year-end, and he sees investment in artificial intelligence technology as not yet at the stage of a bursting bubble, since large technology companies have debt ratios below 2 times, compared with the 2008 subprime crisis when they reached as high as 30-40 times.
