Foreign-exchange news — currency moves, central-bank policy, and FX shifts — and their market impact.
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Richmond Fed President Says Further Rate Hikes Depend on Businesses' Inflation Expectations
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on the 22nd that the U.S. economy is "gaining momentum" and that the Federal Reserve should continue to focus on inflation. In prepared remarks for a speech to the CFA Society Baltimore chapter, Barkin explained that "the risk of inflation exceeds the risk of maximum employment. That is why we raised rates at last week's meeting," and expressed the view that a 25 basis point rate hike would "help" return inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He added that "we will continue to assess in the future whether additional rate hikes are needed, and how many may be required." Barkin noted that companies' inflation outlook for next year will be an important factor as they consider next year's budgets and pricing strategies, and expressed the view that the Fed's rate hikes and expectations of further increases could restrain businesses' inflation expectations and ease upward pressure on prices. He also said that many components of the personal consumption expenditures price index are rising at a pace exceeding 3% year on year, that he senses momentum in areas beyond data centers, that the defense sector is booming, and that optimistic voices are being heard from manufacturing and banking contacts. Barkin does not hold a vote on this year's Federal Open Market Committee.
Goldman Sachs Sees S&P 500 Reaching 8,700 as Treasury Yields Fall
Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb another 13.7% over the next 12 months, reaching 8,700 from roughly 7,651 currently, as Treasury yields retreat. The bank's path is gradual: 8,000 in three months and 8,300 in six months before the 12-month target. Goldman also expects the 10-year Treasury yield to decline from about 5% to 4.8% in three months, 4.7% in six months and 4.5% over the next year, a roughly 50-basis-point drop that could support equity valuations, especially for long-duration growth stocks. Outside the U.S., the bank sees the STOXX Europe 600 rising 9.4%, Japan's Topix gaining 12.4%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index climbing more than 27%. Its commodity outlook is divided: gold is projected to rise 18.1% to $5,140 an ounce, while Brent crude is expected to fall to $78 from roughly $104 and copper is forecast to decline modestly.
New York Fed President Defends Interest Rate Framework, Open to Adjustments as Markets Evolve
New York Fed President Williams on the 22nd defended the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework while indicating that adjustments and fine-tuning are possible in response to changes in financial markets. In prepared opening remarks for a conference on the U.S. Treasury market held at the New York Fed, Williams said the current set of tools for managing short-term interest rates and supplying the financial system with "ample" reserve balances has "proven to be highly effective in managing interest rates and supporting the smooth functioning of core financial markets." Williams did not address the outlook for monetary policy or interest rates in his remarks, and he is not scheduled to take questions after speaking at the conference. Williams noted that while the Fed's interest rate framework has worked well, it is not fixed and can be adapted to changes in market conditions, saying, "As markets evolve over time, we must ensure that our policy tools remain appropriate for fulfilling the functions we need." He also said that under Chair Warsh, the Fed has established multiple task forces to broadly examine its approach to communication, how it evaluates data, and how it handles its still-large balance sheet, adding, "There should be little or no opportunity cost to holding reserves at a central bank."
Boston Fed President Backed Last Week's Rate Hike, Citing Risks of Sticky Inflation
Boston Federal Reserve President Collins said on the 22nd that she supported last week's rate hike, given the risk that future inflation will run above the Fed's 2% target. In a post on the social networking site LinkedIn, Collins said she sees a growing likelihood of a scenario in which inflation remains significantly above 2%, and noted that with the labor market on firmer footing, monetary policy can focus on a timely return to price stability. She added that a somewhat restrictive federal funds rate will help ensure inflation returns sustainably to target.
JPMorgan Aims to Double GIFT City Business Within Two Years
JPMorgan Chase & Co. plans to double its business at India's GIFT City over the next couple of years, according to Global Co-Head of Payments Max Neukirchen. The Wall Street bank has operated in the financial hub for four years and serves a few hundred clients there, Neukirchen told Bloomberg TV, adding that the business is growing substantially. JPMorgan is expanding into trade finance and forex while adding liquidity and payment solutions, he said. The expansion builds on a business that currently has a book of close to $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. JPMorgan opened its GIFT City branch in 2022 and offers loans, risk management, working-capital financing and investments alongside fixed-income, commodities and capital-markets products; in June it appointed Amit Roy, a senior executive from its London office, to head the branch. Gujarat International Finance Tec-City is part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to develop a global financial hub in India that can compete with centers such as Dubai and Hong Kong, offering tax and regulatory incentives to attract international financial institutions and capital.
Boston Fed's Collins Backed Rate Hike, Expects One More in 2026
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she supported last week's quarter-point interest rate increase, which lifted the benchmark rate to roughly 3.9%, and expects the Fed to raise rates once more before the end of the year. Collins told the Associated Press she expects borrowing costs to remain on hold through 2027, citing a lack of hoped-for inflation progress, geopolitical pressures on energy, the resumption of fighting in the Middle East in August, and improved hiring figures. She added that companies across her district, which spans Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont, are reporting cost pressures and signaling they may pass them to consumers, a dynamic that could keep inflation elevated. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee struck a more cautious tone the same day, saying the Fed may need to cause economic pain to bring inflation down, placing him in direct tension with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who argued the central bank can tame inflation without damaging the job market. Goolsbee said the Fed might ultimately need to go beyond the single additional hike policymakers projected last week if data show inflation is driven by demand; neither he nor Collins is a voting member of the rate-setting committee this year, with Goolsbee's voting rotation returning next year and Collins's in 2028.
Tisco says Q4 GDP grew just 1.2%, warns Thai economy risks a decade-long slump
The Tisco Economic and Strategic Analysis Center estimates that Thailand's economic growth in the fourth quarter will come in at only 1.2%, the lowest of the year. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at Tisco ESU, said that although total exports in the second quarter expanded by 20%, actual manufacturing output grew by only 0.1%, reflecting that goods produced for domestic consumption are being displaced by cheap Chinese products entering through e-commerce platforms. Meanwhile, the share of imported goods and components in Thailand has jumped from 48% in 2018 to about 70% today, and the manufacturing index for the computer and electronics group stands at only 71, or 30% below its base year. Tisco believes the Thai economy is entering a prolonged Japanification-style slump, with the share of the population aged 65 and over reaching 14%, matching Japan, and Thailand's per capita income at about 20,700 US dollars compared with roughly 37,000 US dollars in Japan. It expects it will take more than 10 years to restore growth potential above 3%, and has revised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.1%. Komsorn Prakobphol, head of the Tisco Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, assesses that the 10-year US Treasury yield has passed its peak and will hold steady at 5% through the end of the year. If bond yields stay in line with expectations, the S&P 500 index could rise to 7,800-8,000 points by year-end, and he sees investment in artificial intelligence technology as not yet at the stage of a bursting bubble, since large technology companies have debt ratios below 2 times, compared with the 2008 subprime crisis when they reached as high as 30-40 times.
30-Year Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year High of 5.35%, Pressuring Bonds and Stocks
Interest yields on super-safe 30-year Treasuries have climbed to a nineteen-year high of 5.35%, a move that is weighing on bond prices and rippling into the stock market. The average 30-year Treasury has lost about 5% of its market value over just the past year, and corporate and municipal bonds are losing value too as current owners sell and interest in newly issued debt stays tepid. Following last week's decision to raise the baseline rate, the market is betting on at least one more, and maybe even two more, quarter-point increases in the Fed Funds Rate this year, a backdrop that led brokerage firm Charles Schwab to warn that now is not the time to favor long-duration bond investments. With long-term Treasury yields now markedly higher than most income-producing stocks' dividend yields, investors have good reason to rotate out of dividend-paying stocks and into bonds, crimping demand for those equities. On the consumer side, 90-day credit card delinquencies among U.S. borrowers reached a 15-year high at the end of last year and have stayed near those levels, while the average payment on a new car stands at $765 per month and $542 per month for a used vehicle, according to credit bureau Experian.
Hua Seng Heng expects gold to hit $5,000 by end of 2026, SCB sees further upside
Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures estimates global gold prices at around $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with domestic gold prices likely to trade in a range of 75,000 to 75,700 baht per baht-weight of gold, under an assumption of the baht at 31.70 to 32.00 baht per dollar. Sirilak Pakotiprapha, Director of the Analysis Department, said that over the past 20 years gold prices have risen more than eightfold, and in 2025 gold demand reached a record high of 5,000 tonnes, driven by buying from retail investors worried about missing out. In 2026, gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January before declining between March and June amid the Iran war and inflation concerns. Wachiravat Banchuen, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at SCB Financial Markets, Siam Commercial Bank, estimates global gold prices at $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a chance of rising above $5,000 per ounce in 2027. He expects central banks worldwide to buy a net 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes per month in 2027, and sees the baht trading in a range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per dollar over the next one to two months and at 32.80 to 33.80 baht per dollar by the end of the year.
Commerzbank Expects SARB to Hike Rates 25 Basis Points
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur expects the South African Reserve Bank to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike after surprising markets by holding rates in July. The call points to a hawkish tone from the central bank as it returns to tightening following its July pause.
Analyst Dan Krupka Warns of Q4 2026 Crypto Crash After Relief Rally
Dan Krupka, founder of Connection Capital and former research head at Coin Bureau, is calling for caution and a fourth-quarter crash even as Bitcoin pushes back toward $86,000. Krupka, who laid out 2026's rhythm for subscribers on January 1, sees the current move as the tail end of a textbook relief rally setting up a brutal liquidity trap in the fourth quarter. He expects one last squeeze, with Bitcoin running another 20% to 30% to the $96,000 zone, Ethereum squeezing into overhead supply between $3,300 and $3,500, and Solana pushing up to $140 to $160, before momentum exhausts and a sharp retracement follows. On the macro side, he points to the US Dollar Index pressing resistance at its monthly Bollinger Band, warning that a breakout would drain liquidity from risk assets, and he notes warnings from Warren Buffett in mid-September and Michael Burry throughout 2026. Krupka says a standard 50% retracement would put Bitcoin back between $30,000 and $40,000, and he advises watching how price reacts around $96,000 rather than mistaking a mechanical bear market rally for a new supercycle.
UPT Partners With Visa to Launch Virtual IBAN Service for Corporate Customers
UPT announced a collaboration with Visa to implement Currencycloud, a Visa Direct offering, enabling its corporate customers to access virtual EUR and GBP IBANs in their own company name and manage international collections through a single platform. The Turkish money transfer and payment platform, a subsidiary of Aktif Bank, will initially offer the Virtual IBAN service for EUR and GBP, with USD planned to be added at a later stage. Beyond Virtual IBANs, Currencycloud will also enable UPT to enhance its cross-border payments offering through real-time foreign exchange capabilities. UPT CEO Murat Kastan said the collaboration will let UPTION Corporate users obtain a Virtual IBAN in their own companies' names and manage international collection and payment processes through a single platform with competitive foreign exchange rates. Jak Telyaz, VP of Business Development at Visa Europe, said Visa is proud to support UPT in bringing multi-currency account capabilities to its corporate customers.
Fed's First Rate Hike in Over Three Years Signals Possible Stock Market Correction
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target range on the federal funds rate, marking the first rate hike in more than three years, with the vast majority of officials signaling another quarter-point hike in the remaining months of 2026. The decision came despite President Trump's public pressure for lower rates, and his own policies have contributed to the inflationary pressures the Fed is trying to stamp out, most notably sweeping tariffs that added about 0.4 percentage points to core inflation according to research from the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis and Minneapolis, and military action in Iran that helped push the price per gallon of regular gasoline up 40% over the past year. History offers a warning: the Fed has initiated three rate-hike cycles in the last 25 years, and following the first hike in each cycle, the S&P 500 dropped by an average of 11% at some point over the next three months, while the Nasdaq Composite declined by an average of 17% over the same periods. Treasury yields have also surged, with the 10-year Treasury bond yielding 5.01% at the close on Friday, Sept. 18, the largest payout since July 2007, and Bank of America's fund manager survey sees rising yields as the single greatest risk to the stock market. The last time the 10-year yield reached that level, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both suffered bear markets, plunging more than 20% during the next year.
Silver Falls Below $65 as Fed Signals Higher-for-Longer Rates
Silver price (XAG/USD) dropped 1.75% to near $64.85 during the European trading session on Tuesday, sliding below the $65 mark. The white metal came under severe selling pressure after Federal Reserve officials warned that strong demand, alongside higher oil prices, is fuelling upside inflation risks. That warning reinforced the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative weighing on the precious metal.
ECB's Lane Says Energy Prices to Keep Eurozone Inflation Above Target Until Mid-2027
European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said soaring oil and gas prices will keep most other prices elevated for longer, with eurozone inflation only likely to approach the 2% target towards the middle of next year. Lane told a Swiss daily, as quoted by Reuters, that a second wave of energy price increases should lead to higher and more persistent inflation before it recedes towards target starting in mid-2027. He said there has so far been no spill from oil and gas prices to other prices, notably electricity, but such a spill may well manifest later in the year, for example in food prices, while pressures on services should remain relatively contained. Retail fuel prices in the European Union are running at all-time highs, with gasoline up by a weighted average of 29% since February and diesel up by as much as 40% on a weighted average basis, and higher fuel prices pushed the eurozone's energy inflation reading for August to 14.3%. The ECB expects diesel prices to peak by October, though continued tightening of diesel supply and the uncertain prospect of the United States banning exports of the fuel may make that expectation overly optimistic.
Commerzbank: MNB Rate Pause at 5.50% Supports Hungarian Forint
Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says the Hungarian Central Bank is widely expected to hold its key rate at 5.50%, a pause that supports the Hungarian forint. The central bank may also lower its inflation target to 2.5%.
ING Model Shows Euro Fair Value Below 1.150 Against US Dollar
ING's short-term fair value model for EUR/USD has dropped below 1.150, pointing to further downside for the Euro against the US Dollar. Francesco Pesole at ING highlighted the move, noting that the bank's 60-day model now sits under that level. According to Pesole, equities and rate differentials are driving the currency pair's moves more than Oil. The reading suggests the Euro remains vulnerable to additional weakness versus the Dollar.
Yuan Strengthens to Near 3.5-Year High Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
China's yuan traded near its strongest level in three and a half years against the dollar today, September 22, as the market watches for a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump. The yuan was supported by the Chinese central bank's setting of a firmer-than-expected reference rate. The Chinese central bank set the yuan's reference rate at 6.7459 yuan per dollar, the strongest level since February 2023 and 0.0028 yuan firmer than the reference rate on Monday, September 21. Onshore yuan strengthened to 6.6947 yuan per dollar on Monday, its strongest level since January 2023, while offshore yuan strengthened to 6.6908 yuan per dollar. The strengthening came after the Chinese central bank allowed the daily reference rate to firm at a faster pace in recent weeks, narrowing the gap between the reference rate and market expectations. This may reflect that the Chinese central bank is more accepting of a gradual appreciation of the yuan ahead of this meeting. The two leaders are expected to discuss trade, artificial intelligence, supply chains and Middle East tensions at the meeting on September 23-25.
Fitch Revises Thailand's Outlook to Stable, Boosting Bank Stocks KTB and TTB on Upgrade Hopes
The Thai stock market rose 13.88 points, or 0.88%, yesterday to close at 1,598.03 points, with foreign investors net buying 4.63 billion baht after Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's credit rating from negative to stable while affirming the rating at BBB+. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the government will accelerate investment in new industries, the transition to green energy, and maintain fiscal discipline. DAOL Securities analysts said the country's outlook revision should lead banks to have their outlooks raised accordingly, expecting KTB and TTB to have a chance of an outlook upgrade this round, and gave a buy recommendation on KTB with a target of 50 baht, KBANK with a target of 270.00 baht, and TTB with a target of 3.20 baht. Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian analysts viewed it as a positive factor for domestic play stocks, especially banks and consumer goods. Iara Securities was positive on large banks BBL, KBANK, SCB, and KTB, as well as the technology, AI infrastructure, and renewable energy sectors, namely DELTA, GULF, ADVANC, and TRUE.
PBOC holds symposium with foreign financial institutions; Pan Gongsheng says appropriately accommodative monetary policy will be implemented well
The People's Bank of China held a symposium with foreign financial institutions on September 21, listening to their opinions and suggestions and studying work related to further optimizing the business environment and promoting high-level opening-up of the financial sector. Pan Gongsheng said China's economic performance is generally stable and improving, and the People's Bank of China will implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy well, continue to promote high-level financial opening-up, steadily expand two-way opening of financial markets, continuously optimize cross-border payment services, and make the international use of the renminbi more convenient. On the same day, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national video conference on autumn agricultural production, requiring coordinated efforts on all autumn and winter agricultural production tasks, ensuring balanced supply of food basket products, and continuing to advance comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity. In addition, the 2026 China AI Computing Power Development Assessment Report shows that from 2026 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate of active intelligent agents in China will exceed 150%, and by 2030 the number of active intelligent agents in China will grow to 197 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 151.2%. The global AI computing power market is expected to reach 1.25 trillion US dollars in 2030, of which the Chinese market will reach 150.1 billion US dollars, both four times the 2025 level. TrendForce research shows that US cloud service providers have raised demand for enterprise SSDs, and total enterprise SSD orders in the fourth quarter are expected to surpass the third-quarter high, with prices forecast to continue rising. In company news, Yihao New Materials plans to raise no more than 1.8 billion yuan through a private placement to acquire no less than 78% equity in Mingfeng Electronics; Xingshuai'er is planning to purchase 100% equity in Xiangying New Materials, a PCB cutting tool equipment company, and its shares have been suspended; Galaxy Microelectronics plans to invest 1.078 billion yuan to build a high-end core device industrialization project; Keda Manufacturing plans to invest 4.5 billion yuan to build an integrated project with annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of graphite anode materials; Hubei Yihua plans to invest about 1.152 billion yuan to build a 150,000-ton-per-year lithium iron phosphate project; Jiangbolong spent 800 million yuan to repurchase 2.2906 million shares, completing the repurchase plan; ST Yedao has been placed on file for investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected illegal information disclosure.
Mainland Gold Institutions Visit Hong Kong for Research to Advance Shanghai-Hong Kong Gold Market Connectivity
Core institutions from the mainland gold industry recently visited Hong Kong for a special research trip, engaging in in-depth discussions with relevant departments of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, gold trading platforms, industry associations, and leading gold enterprises. The focus was on advancing practical cooperation in three major areas: connectivity between the Shanghai and Hong Kong gold markets, the development of Hong Kong as a gold reserve hub, and the international expansion of mainland gold enterprises. On September 22, spot gold briefly surged to 4,376 US dollars in early trading before fluctuating lower, and is currently trading near 4,330 US dollars. As of 1:27 p.m. on September 22, 2026, the Bosera Gold ETF, which tracks the AU9999 index, fell 0.33 percent. The ETF recorded a latest net inflow of 24.9971 million yuan, with net inflows on four of the past five trading days, totaling 87.4253 million yuan and averaging a daily net inflow of 17.4851 million yuan. CICC Wealth Futures believes that sustained optimism in the artificial intelligence sector and large-scale options buying drove the Nasdaq 100 index up 2.8 percent overnight, its biggest single-day gain since August 4. Gold prices fluctuated lower, but the decline in oil prices partially offset the pressure, making short-term gold fluctuations more likely. Southwest Futures noted that the broader trends of deglobalization and de-dollarization are favorable for gold's allocation value and safe-haven appeal, with central bank gold purchases providing support. As central banks continue to increase holdings and gold ETF funds flow back, precious metals are expected to fluctuate higher.
St. Louis Fed President Says Further Rate Hikes Likely Needed, Current Policy Is in 'Accommodative Territory'
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musalem said on the 21st that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to curb inflation driven by strong demand and rising prices across a broad range of commodities, not just crude oil. In an interview with Reuters, he said that repeated supply-side factors are keeping inflation risks elevated, and that without further rate hikes, inflation is more likely than not to be running well above the 2% target a year and a half from now. Even excluding the effects of crude oil and other supply factors, underlying inflation may be running about 1 percentage point above target, he said, adding that the current policy rate level is in 'accommodative territory.' At its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 15th and 16th, the Fed voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate target by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%-4.00%, and its published projections indicated at least one more 0.25 percentage point increase this year. Musalem does not hold a vote on this year's FOMC.
Bundesbank expects inflation to stay elevated on energy costs and healthcare reform
In its monthly report published on the 21st, Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, projected that German inflation will "remain elevated for some time." It cited energy price surges tied to the situation in Iran and changes to healthcare-related rules, noting that revised pharmaceutical supply rules and healthcare system reform will temporarily push inflation up by nearly 0.5 percentage points in the first half of 2027. It also mentioned the risk that inflation drivers such as persistently high fuel and oil-related product prices and low gas inventories could spill over into other sectors. The report projected that Germany's economy will grow only slightly in the July-to-September quarter of 2026, held back by weak exports and consumption and the effects of drought, but that it will head toward recovery within the year, and it maintained its expectation of a recovery in the October-to-December quarter of 2026. It pointed to improving business sentiment in manufacturing and support for the construction sector from public works projects, while noting that the outlook "also depends on developments in the Middle East and on when water levels on major waterways recover." In Germany, voter discontent over the rising cost of living and economic stagnation has grown into a major political issue, and the August consumer price index rose 2.9 percent year on year on the European Union standard.
Howard Marks Backs Fed Chair Warsh's Push for Less Forward Guidance
Oaktree Capital co-chair Howard Marks is backing Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's push for a less talkative central bank, arguing that markets have become too dependent on policy guidance. Speaking Sunday on Bloomberg This Weekend, Marks said his personal preference is for a less activist central bank that normally lets the economy do its thing unless it risks running too hot or too cold. His position tracks Warsh's emerging philosophy, laid out at Jackson Hole in August, that routine forward guidance had overstayed its welcome and could leave policymakers and markets overly committed to an expected path for interest rates. The shift arrives at a sensitive moment: the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last week to 3.75%-4.00%, citing still-elevated inflation despite solid economic growth, and less guidance from here could leave Treasury yields and equity valuations more exposed to surprises in inflation, employment and economic growth. Marks also flagged a longer-term risk from artificial intelligence's impact on employment and government finances, warning that if people are put out of work they won't pay taxes, a concern already entering Fed discussions after Warsh disclosed in August that the central bank has established a productivity-and-jobs task force examining how AI could reshape the economy. The September meeting minutes arrive October 7, followed by the next FOMC decision on October 28.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 21st that he and President Trump continue to trust Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, even after last week's rate hike. Speaking in an interview with CNBC, he expressed the view that interest rates should fall after the conflict.
Rabobank Sees USD/MXN Holding 17-18 Range Over Next 12 Months
Rabobank analysts Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz expect USD/MXN to trade broadly between 17 and 18 over the next 12 months. They see room for both Fed and Banxico rate expectations to be repriced, with the timing of those adjustments likely to drive near-term volatility.
Chicago Fed President Says Strong Demand Is Driving Inflation, Rate Hikes Are Justified
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on the 21st that U.S. inflation may be being pushed up not only by the shocks from tariffs and energy prices over the past 18 months, but also by strong demand, and that if that is the case, there is "no ambiguity" that higher interest rates would be needed. In a speech prepared for a public monetary and financial institutions forum held in London, he noted that there is no ambiguity about how the Fed would need to respond if demand overheats, and expressed the view that the level of investment in the artificial intelligence sector may be spilling over beyond its proper scope and pushing up aggregate demand beyond what the economy can absorb. He said it is becoming clear that supply shocks are having a more persistent effect, and that as a central bank it cannot ignore such effects when deciding monetary policy. Inflation recently stood at 3.7%, above the Fed's 2% target, with little improvement seen. Goolsbee said there is no easy way to bring it back down, and that it would be necessary to raise interest rates and accept the risks to growth and employment that come with a slowing economy. He does not have a vote on this year's Federal Open Market Committee and did not comment on the outcome of the September 15-16 meeting, at which a 0.25 percentage point rate hike was decided, or on his own monetary policy outlook.
Fitch Revises Thailand's Credit Outlook to Stable, Boosting SET50 Futures
Fitch Ratings has raised Thailand's credit outlook from negative to stable, helping SET50 Index Futures trade higher today. Worut Rungkham, Director of Analysis at YLG Bullion Futures Co., Ltd., said the support came from both domestic and international factors, especially expectations that foreign investor money will flow back into Thai stocks, particularly the banking group. The market is also awaiting the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House on September 24, which is expected to discuss rare earth minerals, the situation in the Middle East, and the AI industry, with Jensen Huang of Nvidia also attending. This is supporting AI-related stocks, including DELTA and the Thai electronic components group, which have moved higher. For tomorrow, the index is expected to hold at a high level, though there may be some pullback, it should remain limited. Meanwhile, tomorrow's cabinet meeting is expected to consider extending the Thai Help Thai Plus measure, which could trigger a sell on fact. Support is estimated at 1,076 and 1,069 points, with resistance at 1,087 points. Gold prices today pulled back on profit-taking, but the decline is seen as limited. The estimated support range is 4,640 and 4,335 U.S. dollars per ounce, with resistance at 4,383 and 4,403 U.S. dollars per ounce. The SET50 index closed at 1,077.66 points, up 7.90 points, or 0.74 percent.
Bitcoin Tops ₺3.9 Million as Turkish Lira Slides to Record Low
Bitcoin climbed above ₺3.9 million in Turkey, with BTC/TRY reaching nearly ₺4 million, as the Turkish lira weakened to around 48.8 per US dollar. Bitcoin was trading near ₺3.93 million on Sunday, equivalent to roughly $80,550, and BTC/TRY hit about ₺3.99 million on Sept. 19, according to historical exchange-rate data. CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin up approximately 16.6% against the lira over the past 30 days, including a nearly 6% single-day jump on Sept. 18 from around ₺3.73 million to ₺3.94 million, and a roughly 26% rise from near ₺3.1 million on Aug. 19. The lira's slide comes as Turkish Statistical Institute data showed consumer prices rose 31.51% year over year in August, with housing costs up 39.77%, transportation up 35.08%, and food and non-alcoholic beverages up 33.79%. On Sept. 10, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 37%, with the overnight lending rate at 40%, saying underlying inflation was decelerating but warning that elevated energy prices posed renewed upside risks.
Bank of Japan Conducts Rate Check Before Holidays, Possibly Preparing for Yen-Buying Intervention
Market sources have revealed that the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check, in which it queries financial institutions about foreign exchange rate levels. The check took place from late at night on the 18th into the early hours of the 19th, ahead of Japan's string of national holidays, and during that window the yen rose about 1 yen from the upper 157 range to the upper 156 range against the dollar. The move is believed to have been aimed at restraining speculative yen selling, and a rate check is positioned as a preparatory step toward currency intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan. In overseas markets, caution is growing over possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities. On the 18th, the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting, but because two board members opposed the move and it was not a unanimous decision, expectations for an early additional rate hike receded, and yen selling and dollar buying advanced. In the London foreign exchange market on the morning of the 21st, the yen traded in the lower 157 range.
McGlone Warns Crypto Faces Lose-Lose Fed Trap as S&P Valuations Near Dot-Com Peak
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that crypto faces a "lose-lose" setup as the Federal Reserve tightens policy while US equity valuations sit near historic extremes. The Federal Reserve last week unanimously raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase in more than three years, with median projections putting the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. Bitcoin initially traded around $75,000–$76,500 after the decision but has since recovered to approach $82,000, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.97%. McGlone argues crypto loses either way: persistent inflation could keep rates elevated and restrict liquidity, while tighter policy that breaks the equity rally could trigger a broad risk-off move, and he has previously said a sustained 20% S&P 500 correction could drive Bitcoin as low as $10,000 in an extreme downside scenario. The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio is around 41 against a long-term median of roughly 16.1, approaching the December 1999 dot-com peak of 44.2, and Bank of America's normalized S&P 500 P/E recently stood at 32, a level historically corresponding to an average annual return of around -3% over the following decade. Glassnode reported that Bitcoin recently fell below its True Market Mean, with onchain capital inflows slowing, ETF flows stalled, stablecoin growth weakening, and corporate Bitcoin purchases cooling, describing the market as moving into an area of "thin support"; futures open interest remained elevated at $36.4 billion, above Glassnode's statistical upper band of $36 billion.
Yuan ends regular trading at strongest level since end-June 2022 as PBOC tolerates appreciation ahead of US-China summit
The Chinese yuan ended regular trading on the 21st at 6.6955 per dollar, its strongest level since June 30, 2022. Ahead of this week's US-China leaders' summit, the People's Bank of China has eased its stance against yuan appreciation. The yuan at one point hit 6.6950 per dollar, its strongest since January 16, 2023, while the offshore yuan traded about 0.03 percent higher in Asian hours at 6.6946 per dollar. Before the market opened, the PBOC set the daily fixing against the dollar at 6.7487, the strongest yuan level since February 3, 2023. For nearly a year the fixing had been set weaker than market expectations, which was read as the PBOC trying to curb the pace of the yuan's rise, but this month the fixings have increasingly leaned toward a stronger yuan, prompting the view that the central bank has eased its restraint. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the strength of the fixing at a time ahead of the US-China summit is consistent with past practice, and that the room for the offshore spot rate to rise further has widened. OCBC, meanwhile, said caution is warranted in interpreting the PBOC's move as the start of a sustained cycle of yuan appreciation.
Eastspring launches three US dollar funds with a minimum investment of 30 dollars
Eastspring Asset Management has launched three US dollar-denominated mutual funds: ES-GINCOME-USD, ES-GAINCOME-USD and ES-GCORE-USD. The offer period runs from today until 22 September 2026, with each fund having a project size of 200 million US dollars and a minimum investment of just 30 US dollars. Yingyong Jiarawutthi, Deputy Managing Director of the Investment Management Division at Eastspring Asset Management, said the three funds are aimed at investors holding US dollar deposits or foreign currency deposit accounts, as well as businesses with US dollar income, who want to build investment portfolios to meet their overseas spending goals. The funds fully hedge currency risk for all currencies other than the US dollar, at 95% to 105% of risk value. ES-GINCOME-USD invests through the master fund PIMCO GIS Income Fund (Class I), focusing on high-quality global fixed income with flexibility to adjust the average duration of instruments between 0 and 8 years. ES-GAINCOME-USD is a mixed fund that invests through the master fund Amundi Funds Income Opportunities (Class I2 USD), focusing on multiple global asset classes including equities, fixed income and alternative assets. ES-GCORE-USD invests through the master fund Goldman Sachs Global CORE Equity Portfolio (Class I Shares), managed by the Quant Investment Strategies team at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which uses AI combined with Big Data analysis and Machine Learning to select quality stocks in developed countries worldwide, around 200 to 400 companies. The master funds of all three funds have received a 5-star Morningstar Rating.
Fed Hikes Rates to 3.75%-4% as Warsh Warns Inflation Still Too High
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, the first increase since July 2023, with new Chairman Kevin Warsh calling the move overdue because inflation remains too high. The hike lands as the AI infrastructure build-out has shifted from a cash-only story to one financed heavily in the bond market, and three names capture the split. Nvidia generated about $74 billion in operating cash flow and nearly $70 billion in free cash flow in the first half of its fiscal year while capital spending was only about $4.4 billion, though it issued $25 billion of unsecured senior notes in June and its long-term debt rose to $32 billion by the end of the second quarter from about $7.5 billion at the start of the year. Oracle's capital expenditures surged to about $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, turning free cash flow to negative $24 billion, and it raised $43 billion of debt and $5 billion of equity while guiding for another $40 billion in fiscal 2027, with S&P Global rating its credit at BBB-. Amazon is guiding toward $220 billion of capex in 2026, up from a prior estimate of $200 billion, after issuing roughly $54 billion of bonds in March and an additional $25 billion over the summer, with trailing 12-month free cash flow of negative $7.6 billion. Bank of America research shows the big five hyperscalers issued $121 billion in debt during 2025, versus an average of $28 billion per year between 2020 and 2024, and now forecasts as much as $175 billion this year.
ING Keeps EUR/USD Year-End Target at 1.160 Despite Expected ECB December Hike
ING is holding its EUR/USD profile unchanged with a 1.160 year-end target even as it now expects an additional European Central Bank hike in December, according to Francesco Pesole of the bank. Pesole said downside risks for the euro persist despite the December hike call and the political noise in Germany. The 1.160 year-end target remains ING's standing forecast for the currency pair.
NZD/USD Forecast Points to Fresh Downside Leg Below 0.5700
The New Zealand Dollar is trading marginally higher against the US Dollar at around 0.5727 during the European session on Monday, even as the US Dollar Index is positive. At press time, the USD Index is up 0.1% to near 100.31. The forecast points to a fresh downside leg below 0.5700 for the pair.
Krungsri expects baht to move in 33.00-33.60 range this week
The Global Markets group at Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) expects the baht to move in a range of 33.00-33.60 baht per dollar this week, compared with last week when the baht closed weaker at 33.31 baht per dollar after trading in a 33.08-33.43 range. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies after the US Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the first hike in three years, while the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote and the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%. Foreign investors sold 5.192 billion baht of Thai stocks and 7.552 billion baht of Thai bonds respectively. For the overall picture this week, Krungsri Global Markets sees that although the Fed is expected to raise rates one more time this year, rates in several major economies are also on an upward path. In the short term, the dollar may continue to strengthen if crude oil prices rise significantly, while the market is cautious about downside risks for the euro from rising political uncertainty in France. The yen faces the risk of some profit-taking during this period. As for domestic factors, pressure for Thailand to raise its policy rate remains fairly limited, while the baht may weaken briefly amid the upward trend in global interest rates and volatile commodity prices. Although electronics exports are being supported by the technology cycle, high import costs, low economic growth and the direction of interest rate differentials are not yet conducive to a stronger baht for some time to come.
Gold Slips as Fed Hike Bets and Geopolitics Lift Dollar Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a weaker note following Friday's failure near the $4,400 mark, stalling a two-day-old recovery move from a six-week low touched last Wednesday. The metal is drifting lower as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and geopolitical tensions bolster the US dollar ahead of a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The failed push toward $4,400 has left the recovery from last Wednesday's six-week low looking fragile, with the stronger dollar weighing on bullion. Traders are watching the Trump-Xi meeting for any signals on trade or broader risk sentiment that could sway both the dollar and gold in the sessions ahead.
Kasikorn Securities sees SET swinging between 1,560 and 1,620 this week, recommends SCGP and WHA
Kasikorn Securities estimates the SET Index will trade in a range of 1,560 to 1,620 this week, expecting the Thai stock market to recover after the Fed meeting and see a buy-on-fact rally even though the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled at least one more hike this year. Slowing oil prices help ease inflation concerns and support risk assets, but investors still need to watch Houthi attacks on oil facilities and the blockade of shipping routes, which could disrupt oil exports through the Red Sea and make oil prices volatile. The 10-year US bond yield eased slightly after testing 5%, while the Dollar Index held steady around 100, pushing the baht weaker to 33.3 per dollar and the yen lower after the Bank of Japan gave no signal of accelerating rate hikes. The key highlight this week is the discussion between Trump and Xi Jinping on September 24 on energy, AI and trade. Domestically, investors are watching the two-month extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus programme and August export figures. The strategy focuses on accumulating stocks expected to post strong profit growth, with DELTA, SCC, SCGP and BCH chosen as the week's top picks. For SCGP, the base price target is 37.30 baht after second-quarter 2026 profit of 2.3 billion baht, up 128% year on year and 47% quarter on quarter, beating expectations on Fajar's recovery and the pulp and paper business's EBITDA margin rising to 9.5%. For WHA, the base price target is 6.25 baht based on the sum-of-the-parts method. In the short term, uncertainty in Thailand's data centre business after the government set up a policy committee on the data centre business could pressure the share price, but in the longer term strong operating momentum in the second half of 2026 should draw investors back.
PBOC Holds Benchmark Lending Rates Steady for 16th Straight Month
The People's Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged at record lows for the 16th consecutive month in September 2026, meeting market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate, the benchmark for corporate and consumer borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, the reference rate for residential mortgages, stayed flat at 3.5%. The central bank maintained a cautious monetary stance amid heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions, as strong global demand for AI-related goods continued to support Chinese exports. Domestic equities edged higher after the decision, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.4% to 3,925 and the Shenzhen Component rising 0.8% to 13,743. In currency markets, the offshore yuan held firm near 6.69 per dollar, its strongest level against the greenback since July 2022.