Trump Cancels Iran Strike Plan, Paving Way for Hormuz Strait Negotiations

The US State Department has approved a proposed military arms sale to Ukraine worth up to $2.7 billion, according to a notification to Congress on the evening of Friday, September 18. The package covers upgrades to air defense systems, weapons and equipment, as well as related equipment and services, including S-300 replica missiles, GAM-67 missiles, longer-range laser-guided rockets, launcher modification kits and mobile firing systems, and counter-drone radars. However, the proposal still requires congressional review, and no final agreement has been reached. If the sale is completed, Ukraine will use funding from European countries together with the US Foreign Military Financing budget, which was allocated during the administration of former US President Joe Biden. The State Department said US funding for this sale will be counted as a contribution to the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund under a one-to-one reimbursement agreement; the fund was established under a minerals agreement signed by the United States and Ukraine last year. The proposed arms sale comes as the administration of President Donald Trump seeks to shift more of the cost of supporting Ukraine onto European countries. Earlier in September, Trump said he would ask European countries to reimburse the United States for military aid and ammunition it had previously delivered to Ukraine. It also follows Trump's signing of legislation on Friday aimed at increasing economic pressure on Russia. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and Trump had pledged to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine after taking office early last year, but fighting continues even after the first 20 months of his presidency.

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, faced two air-raid warnings in the early hours of today, September 19, marking the first time the country's capital has seen such alerts since the period when war between the United States and Iran intensified in March and April. Saudi Arabia's early-warning system issued an emergency alert in Riyadh at 4:00 a.m. and again at 6:00 a.m., without disclosing further details. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's civil defense authority said the danger had ended shortly after both alerts. Other areas across the country received similar warnings throughout the past night, including Jeddah and Yanbu on the Red Sea, as well as Farasan Island in the Red Sea. The warnings came amid a new wave of attacks Saudi Arabia has faced in September, with the Iran-backed Houthis based in Yemen striking cities in western Saudi Arabia, including energy infrastructure, over the past week. The Saudi government said a drone attack from Iraq, home to several Iran-backed armed groups, forced the East-West oil pipeline to halt operations. In addition, attacks on the pipeline and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced Saudi Arabia's oil exports and created further problems for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's leader. The renewed conflict also risks affecting Saudi Arabia's efforts to attract investment and tourists, part of its push to diversify the country's economic structure. In October, Riyadh is scheduled to host Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference, the Future Investment Initiative, with the 2026 annual gathering set to welcome several senior Wall Street executives, including JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group.

Boeing has secured regulatory relief to continue selling 777F freighters and gained approval as prime contractor for a US$5.75 billion JDAM-ER munitions package to Saudi Arabia. The FAA waiver covers 35 extra 777F sales, extending a profitable widebody program at a time when free cash flow is constrained by 737 and 787 production issues. Separately, AerSale Corporation previously announced the lease of a Boeing 757-200PCF freighter to Kazakhstan-based Jupiter Jet. Together, the freight and defense developments help offset pressure from ongoing 737 and 787 production challenges, though they do not fully counter the key near-term catalyst of stabilizing 737 output or the biggest risk around cash generation and high debt. Investors are also watching the unresolved risk of a possible SPEEA strike and its potential impact on cash flow.