Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade could push 2027 Social Security COLA to 3.8%

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President Donald Trump's reimposed naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is driving oil prices higher and could lead to a 3.8% cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits in 2027, according to advocacy group The Senior Citizens League. Oil prices jumped more than 8% after the blockade announcement on July 13, and the resulting inflation during the third quarter—the period used to calculate the annual COLA—may produce the third-highest adjustment in the past decade. The 2027 COLA is on pace to be at least a percentage point above this year's 2.8% increase, though the official figure will not be released until October 14 after third-quarter CPI-W data is complete. Higher oil costs affect not only gasoline prices but also groceries and retail goods due to transportation expenses, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1983, limiting the government's ability to stabilize prices.

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