Summary · why it matters
President Donald Trump has threatened severe economic measures against any country that provides assistance to Iran, whether through financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government agencies, amid a prolonged Middle East conflict that is sending ripples through global energy markets. China may be the key country to watch, since it buys more than 80 percent of Iran's seaborne crude exports. Trump said on social media that any country allowing its financial institutions, companies, airports, or government bodies to help Iran will face severe economic consequences, adding that this would lead to economic war and isolation on an unprecedented scale. However, Trump has not yet disclosed details of what measures he would use, nor has he named any countries that might be directly targeted. Reuters noted that the threat could also cover some US allies that have played a role in mediating the conflict. One of the countries markets are watching most closely is China, because 2025 data from Kpler cited by Reuters shows that China buys more than 80 percent of Iran's seaborne crude exports, making China an extremely important market for Iranian oil. If the US government expands pressure on countries or companies still doing business with Iran, economic relations between the United States and China could face increased tension. Still, increasing economic pressure on China is not easy, because China is one of the largest exporters to the US market and plays a major role in the supply chain for raw materials such as rare earth minerals, raising the risk of retaliatory measures if the economic conflict widens. Trump's move came after the United Arab Emirates announced a suspension of all commercial activity, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice. That measure followed the UAE's statement that it had detected two missiles fired from Iran that landed in the sea, while Iran denied the allegation. The situation in the Middle East is also putting pressure on energy markets, with uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persisting. The number of vessels transiting the route is well below pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, and before February about one-fifth of globally traded oil moved through it. Trump's latest announcement means the risk of conflict is no longer limited to military confrontation but could spread into the global financial system, trade, and energy markets, especially if the United States actually imposes measures on companies, banks, or countries still doing business with Iran. That could increase pressure on Iran's trading partners to choose between maintaining relations with Tehran or avoiding the risk of Washington's measures. Meanwhile, oil prices are also being supported by supply risks, with Brent crude rising on Thursday to around 91.87 dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for September stood at around 86 dollars per barrel, amid concerns that the Middle East situation could drag on. Iran continues to say it is open to talks with the United States, but insists that negotiation does not mean surrender and that pressure from sanctions or military force will not change Iran's position. Trump's latest stance therefore raises the question of what form of economic measures the United States will turn this threat into, and which country or company it will target first, because if the measures spread to a major trading partner such as China, the impact could extend from the US-Iran conflict into trade, energy, and the supply chains of the broader global economy.
