UBS Group AGUBSG
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UBS cuts its Q3 oil supply loss estimate by 5 million bpd, implying lower disruption and weaker price outlook.
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Saudi Arabia issues two air-raid warnings over Riyadh after new Houthi attacks
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, faced two air-raid warnings in the early hours of today, September 19, marking the first time the country's capital has seen such alerts since the period when war between the United States and Iran intensified in March and April. Saudi Arabia's early-warning system issued an emergency alert in Riyadh at 4:00 a.m. and again at 6:00 a.m., without disclosing further details. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's civil defense authority said the danger had ended shortly after both alerts. Other areas across the country received similar warnings throughout the past night, including Jeddah and Yanbu on the Red Sea, as well as Farasan Island in the Red Sea. The warnings came amid a new wave of attacks Saudi Arabia has faced in September, with the Iran-backed Houthis based in Yemen striking cities in western Saudi Arabia, including energy infrastructure, over the past week. The Saudi government said a drone attack from Iraq, home to several Iran-backed armed groups, forced the East-West oil pipeline to halt operations. In addition, attacks on the pipeline and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced Saudi Arabia's oil exports and created further problems for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's leader. The renewed conflict also risks affecting Saudi Arabia's efforts to attract investment and tourists, part of its push to diversify the country's economic structure. In October, Riyadh is scheduled to host Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference, the Future Investment Initiative, with the 2026 annual gathering set to welcome several senior Wall Street executives, including JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group.
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Trump signs Russia sanctions bill, granting tariff authority over countries buying Russian oil
US President Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill into law on the 18th. The law grants the president the authority to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil products. It allows the president to impose a 500% tariff on Russian goods imported into the United States, and to impose an additional 100% tariff on the top five energy-importing countries, countries importing Russian crude oil and natural gas, and countries that help evade sanctions. This tariff authority expires after five years. The top five buyers of Russian oil products include China, India, and US ally Turkey, and they could be subject to a broad range of new tariffs. The law also extends the application deadline of the 1996 Iran Sanctions Act to 2031, imposing secondary economic sanctions on non-US companies that trade with Iran; it had been due to expire this year. The Russian presidential administration said on the 17th that the US Congress's passage of the bill was an "unfriendly" move and warned it could affect negotiations aimed at ending the war.
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Trump Signs Russia-Iran Sanctions Law, Authorizing Tariffs of Up to 100%
US President Donald Trump signed into law a Russia sanctions bill on Friday, September 18. The law grants authority to expand sanctions, impose customs duties and various prohibitions against Russia, while renewing existing sanctions on Iran. The law, named the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, imposes sanctions on Russian officials, Russian banks and vessels used to transport energy from Russia, and gives Trump the authority to levy tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five countries that import the most oil or natural gas from Russia. It also extends the Iran Sanctions Act for another five years to maintain sanctions targeting Iran's energy and weapons sectors. The US House of Representatives passed the bill on Wednesday, September 16, after the Senate approved it on August 7. The law is a major achievement carrying on the legacy of Lindsey Graham, the former senator who championed the bill and died in July after a sudden illness. However, the bill faced more division in the House than in the Senate, with three Democratic members of the House saying in a joint statement recently that the law may do more harm than good because it greatly increases Trump's power to set tariffs but does not compel him to impose sanctions on Russia.