UBS expects Chinese automakers to capture 37% of global market by 2030

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Summary · why it matters

UBS forecasts that Chinese automakers will raise their global market share to 37% by 2030, up from 22% in the first half of 2026, as consumers increasingly accept Chinese car brands, supporting expansion beyond China. For the European market, UBS raised its forecast for Chinese brands' share to 20% by 2030 from 18%, compared with roughly 8% today, and growth is outpacing earlier expectations. A survey of 12,000 consumers by UBS Evidence Lab found that 36% of European respondents would consider buying an electric vehicle from a Chinese brand, with interest in Chinese brands in Europe rising by more than interest in Japanese and South Korean brands combined. Value for money was the most important factor, cited by 66% of those likely to buy a Chinese electric vehicle globally, while advanced technology was the second, at 61%. In its base case, UBS expects BYD, Geely, Chery, SAIC, Leapmotor and Xiaomi to be the Chinese manufacturers most likely to become major players in overseas markets. In a bull case, Chinese automakers' global market share could reach 45%, and 30% in Europe, by 2030, while a bear case could put it at 33% globally and 15% in Europe.

Impact on stocks 4

Electrification & Mobility▲ · 2 stocks
Xiaomi Corp
1810
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

UBS names Xiaomi among Chinese manufacturers most likely to become major players in overseas markets as Chinese brand acceptance grows.

Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co
9863
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

UBS lists Leapmotor among the Chinese automakers most likely to become major overseas players amid rising global share forecasts.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
BYD Co Ltd Class A
002594
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

UBS names BYD among the Chinese automakers most likely to become major players overseas as Chinese brands gain global share.

SAIC Motor Corp Ltd
600104
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

UBS names SAIC among the Chinese manufacturers most likely to become major players in overseas markets.

Theme Impact 3

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