US Set to Impose New Import Tariffs, Hitting Thai Beverage Stocks COCOCO and SAPPE

Macro

โดย HoonVision·Read original

Summary · why it matters

The United States is preparing to announce a new round of import tariff hikes under Section 301 on 60 countries assessed as using forced labor, including Thailand, at an additional rate of 12.5 percent. This comes after the temporary tariff measure under Section 122 at a rate of 10 percent expires on July 24. The research team assesses that this issue pressures sentiment on export-oriented beverage stocks based on their revenue exposure to the US, namely COCOCO at 19 percent and SAPPE at 11 percent. CBG, ICHI, and OSP are not affected as their sales are mainly domestic and within Asia. However, the fundamental impact may be relatively limited, as most exports are on a free-on-board basis and US partners have already raised product prices previously during the period when a 19 percent import tariff was imposed from August 1, 2025, to February 23, 2026. Furthermore, the impact on COCOCO will be further mitigated after its new factory in the Philippines is completed, with commercial production expected to start by the end of this year. The company will shift production of coconut-based products to the Philippine plant, which benefits from better tax agreements with the US and Europe compared to Thailand. The research team has upgraded the beverage sector to market weight from underweight, citing overall second-quarter 2026 earnings that are expected to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. COCOCO is selected as a top pick due to its earnings growth outlook that is expected to outperform the sector. The team also recommends short-term speculation on ICHI and OSP based on dividend payment themes, with expected dividend yields of 3.2 percent and 2.3 percent respectively for the first half of 2026.