WTI Crude Rises 18 Cents After US-Iran Clashes Resume; Diesel Hits Record High

CommodityGeopolitics Impact 4
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed higher on Friday (September 4) and posted a significant weekly gain, as the United States and Iran resumed military strikes against each other in the seventh month of the conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. retail diesel prices surged to a record high. WTI crude for October delivery rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $91.48 per barrel. Brent crude for November delivery gained 76 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $96.28 per barrel. Over the week, Brent crude rose 7.6%, while U.S. crude gained nearly 10%, as oil shipping routes in the Middle East remained disrupted by the war. The surge in oil prices, along with sharply higher fuel prices, is adding to inflationary pressures and government borrowing costs worldwide, while raising concerns that the global economy could slow if energy prices stay elevated. The average U.S. diesel price hit a record high after fighting between the U.S. and Iran reignited, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused further supply disruptions. Data from AAA showed the average U.S. diesel price at $5.85 per gallon. Diesel prices could rise further as inventories have fallen sharply, while agricultural states across much of the U.S. are entering harvest and planting seasons, with diesel being the primary fuel for farm machinery. Additionally, heating oil futures, which are a proxy for diesel, have also risen sharply ahead of winter. Citi raised its third-quarter average Brent crude price forecast to $86 per barrel from $80, citing that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is taking longer than previously expected. ANZ analysts raised their short-term Brent crude price forecast to $95 per barrel, seeing potential for further gains if the Middle East conflict escalates. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, easing concerns about labor market weakness but also adding to arguments for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. Analysts said the strong jobs data suggests the Fed may hike rates, a factor that pressures WTI prices. The U.S. government said oil shipments through the Middle East have returned to near-normal levels in recent weeks. However, analysts and shipping trackers said traffic remains severely disrupted. Preliminary shipping data indicated only four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday (September 3), well below the 10-day average of about 15 vessels.

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