Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd

The liquor sector strengthened today, with Jinhui Liquor and Shede Spirits hitting their daily limit up intraday at 16.89 yuan per share and 37.49 yuan per share respectively. Golden Seed Winery surged more than 7% at one point, while Kouzi Distillery, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Jiugui Liquor, Wuliangye, and Yanghe Brewery all gained over 4%. Goldman Sachs noted in its latest research report that the most difficult destocking phase for China's liquor industry is over, with supply-side cuts accelerating, wholesale prices of key mid-to-high-end varieties stabilizing, and channel inventories trending healthier. The industry is in the very early stages of recovery, but broader commercial demand recovery still needs confirmation due to macroeconomic uncertainties, and the industry's long-term market capacity faces structural contraction.

Yanghe Shares recently won an online defamation case, with the infringer, Tian, ordered by the court to publicly apologize and pay 150,000 yuan in compensation. Investigations found that Tian, using the Toutiao account 'Serious Melon gC1', had long fabricated and distorted facts, posting over 900 false statements targeting Yanghe and its products, seriously misleading the public and infringing on Yanghe Shares' right to reputation. The court has ordered Tian to immediately delete all infringing content and issue a public apology on the account. The judgment has now officially taken effect.

On the evening of July 14, several A-share listed liquor companies disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. The sector's decline widened in the second quarter, with three distillers warning of losses. Yet on July 15, the liquor sector bucked the trend and surged after the market opened. By midday, Golden Seed Winery hit its daily limit up, Gujing Distillery rose 8.72 percent, and Shunxin Agriculture and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu both gained over 6 percent. Despite the short-term share price rebound, after three years of deep industry adjustment, some stocks have fallen back to the starting point of the previous upcycle. Shunxin Agriculture traded at 10.87 yuan at midday, a level last seen in June 2013. Yanghe Brewery stood at 39.91 yuan, back to around December 2013. Shares of Shede Spirits, Gujing Distillery, Luzhou Laojiao and others have also retreated to ranges seen around 2019 to 2020. Earlier, multiple institutions published research reports bullish on the liquor sector bottoming out, noting that distillers' operating strategies have shifted this year. Short- to medium-term tactics broadly focus on destocking, stabilizing price levels, boosting sales, and strengthening direct-to-consumer engagement. The trend of proactive supply-side destocking and balance-sheet cleanup continues. Second-quarter results are expected to show a mixed picture of declines and growth. As the peak consumption season arrives in the second half, sales momentum is likely to recover further. Independent liquor commentator Xiao Zhuqing argues that the current earnings decline is the result of three long-term structural contradictions resonating across consumption, usage scenarios, and distribution channels, rather than a short-term market fluctuation. In particular, the contraction in government and corporate consumption is a systemic, long-term variable. Restoring consumer confidence requires a supportive macro cycle. The trillion-yuan inventory overhang in distribution channels will need at least one to two years to slowly clear.