Gold Futures

Hua Seng Heng forecasts gold prices to surge to $4,900-5,000 per ounce this year, or Thai gold prices around 74,000-75,000 baht per baht weight, after prices broke through the key resistance at $4,500-4,515, which is the 200-day moving average, turning the medium-to-long-term trend positive. Supporting factors include the U.S. Treasury increasing the maximum size of long-duration bond buybacks per operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering 10-20 year and 20-30 year maturities, from September 9 to November 4, 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, which may pressure gold in the short term via bond yields but serves as a structural support in the long run. Additionally, central bank buying remains strong, with net purchases of 289 tonnes in Q2, up 62% year-on-year, and gold ETFs saw net inflows of about $3 billion in July, increasing holdings by 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes. The market is watching the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27-29 for signals on the Fed's rate direction ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Hua Seng Heng advises investors to be cautious of short-term profit-taking and views pullbacks as accumulation opportunities if the price structure maintains the uptrend.

World gold prices recovered more than 1% to stand back above the $4,600 per ounce level on Thursday, as markets awaited a speech by Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve Chair, at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Gold prices rose 1.1% to $4,639.45 per ounce at 10:17 a.m. Singapore time, after declining on Wednesday due to U.S. inflation data exceeding the target, which increased market expectations of a Fed rate hike, strengthening the dollar and pushing bond yields higher. However, gold prices are still up nearly 15% in August, supported by the U.S. Treasury's intervention in the bond market, which has spurred interest in the 'debasement trade' strategy. Investors are using gold as a hedge against budget deficits and a weakening dollar. Analysts at Zijin Tianfeng Futures noted that gold prices remain above the 200-day moving average, a sign of strength, and if Warsh does not signal a rate hike in September, the market may interpret it as dovish, which would be positive for gold. Additionally, the independence of the Fed is a key focus, following Fed Governor Lisa Cook's denial of allegations of mortgage fraud, amid President Trump's efforts to remove her from her position. Among other precious metals, silver rose 2% to $69.49 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also gained.

Chen of Sanwa Securities expressed the view that the dip-buying trend for gold is likely to continue. Last week, NY gold (December contract) surged on reports of the US Treasury Secretary's buyback of long-term government bonds, closing the week at $4,680.60 per ounce, up 5.48% on the week. On Monday, the 24th, it continued to rise, briefly reaching around $4,730, marking the highest settlement level in about three months. US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the 24th expressed his intention to expand the scope of secondary sanctions on countries that continue to trade with Iran, targeting "all countries," but market reaction was limited. The market is focusing on the July US PCE price index due on the 26th and the Fed Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole conference. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC is about 42%, while the probability of holding steady is about 58%. Buying in gold ETFs is also strong, with SPDR Gold Shares' balance increasing for four consecutive days to 1,049.49 tons. The expected range for NY gold is $4,500 to $4,800, and for domestic gold ETFs, it is 65,000 to 70,000 yen.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan warns that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is 100% exposed to fiat currency, as investors poured a record $7 billion into gold and Bitcoin funds in just five days. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas calls this the debasement trade, a bet on assets no government can print, which has now stolen the spotlight from AI funds. SPDR Gold Shares took in $3.4 billion in the week through August 21, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust added over $1 billion, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF bled $1.7 billion. The trigger is Washington's debt crossing $40 trillion and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's decision to double long-bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9. Central banks have already shifted, with gold reaching 27% of their reserves, overtaking US Treasuries at 22%. Bitcoin trades near $79,144, up 0.55% in 24 hours, while IBIT is still down roughly 10% this year after nursing a 33% loss as recently as June.

Krungthai Bank's investment strategy team (Krungthai CIO) recommends disciplined continuous investment, gradually accumulating technology and semiconductor stocks, as well as holding gold for diversification. They note that corporate earnings remain strong despite the US stock market's consolidation, with the S&P 500 down 1.4% and the Nasdaq down 2.1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4.2 basis points to 4.73%, and Brent crude oil prices increased 6.6% to $94.4 per barrel. Gold prices rose over 5% due to a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand. For Thai property funds and REITs, they recommend shifting to a Neutral stance as the dividend yield gap has returned to near its long-term average. For gold, they maintain a 6-12 month target of $4,915 and $5,315 per ounce. Factors to monitor include announcements on Iran sanctions, NVIDIA's earnings, US inflation data, the Bank of Thailand's meeting on August 26, and the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium.

Domestic gold prices opened today (Aug. 26) up 250 baht per baht-weight, with gold ornaments selling at 72,900.00 baht and gold bars at 72,100.00 baht. Meanwhile, Gold Spot stood at 4,657.00 dollars per ounce. Global gold prices remain near their highest level in over three months, supported by a weaker dollar and the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback plan. Investors are also watching remarks by Kevin Warsh, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which could influence interest rate direction and gold prices.

Perseus Mining Limited has updated its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves estimates as of 30 June 2026, reporting a 37% increase in Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources to 10.6 million ounces of gold and a 40% increase in Proved and Probable Ore Reserves to 7.0 million ounces. The company attributed the 2.0 million ounce rise in Ore Reserves to growth at its Nyanzaga, Edikan, and Yaouré projects, with Nyanzaga alone contributing a 75% increase. Perseus also noted the removal of the Meyas Sand Gold Project in Sudan from its reporting following its sale in March 2026. The estimates were prepared in accordance with the JORC Code 2012 and NI 43-101 standards.

Gold Fields reported a stronger first half for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with attributable production up 12% to 1.267 million ounces and adjusted free cash flow more than doubling to $2.225 billion. The company's average realized gold price rose 51% to $4,678 per ounce, and Salares Norte was the principal contributor, producing 337,000 ounces, up 173%, and generating just under $1.2 billion in free cash flow. Gold Fields raised its full-year production outlook for Salares Norte to 550,000–600,000 gold-equivalent ounces, above the prior 500,000-to-550,000-ounce range. Management announced an additional $500 million for its shareholder-return top-up program, bringing the total allocation since November 2025 to $1.25 billion, while delays to Windfall's environmental approval could push the project to late 2029 or later and the renewal of Tarkwa's mining leases remains uncertain.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the United States is heading for a major debt crisis, likening the nation to a person on the verge of a heart attack. In an August 21 LinkedIn post, the Bridgewater Associates founder cited a $4 billion U.S. debt buyback, rising bond yields, a weak dollar, and a Japanese sell-off of U.S. bond holdings as signs of a potential government debt crisis. Dalio estimated the U.S. will see around a $2 trillion budget shortfall this year with $11 trillion in debt service payments, and noted that U.S. debt topped $40 trillion for the first time earlier this month. He proposed cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP through spending cuts, lower interest rates, and higher tax revenue, while cautioning against forced adjustments like artificially low rates. Dalio predicted the crisis could come 'in three years, give or take two,' and advised diversifying assets, underweighting bonds, and holding 10% to 15% in gold plus a bit of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin surged to its highest level in more than three months on Tuesday, climbing 4.7% to $80,760.8 and briefly touching $81,220.4. The rally was driven by concerns over U.S. public finances after the Treasury announced plans to roughly double the pace of its bond buybacks, fueling a so-called debasement trade that has weakened the dollar and boosted demand for cryptocurrencies and gold. More than $457 million of Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over the previous 24 hours, with an additional $112.3 million in Ether shorts wiped out. Ether rose 2.2% to $2,510.0, XRP gained 2.2%, and Solana jumped 7.6%.

China reduced its holdings of US government bonds to 633.4 billion dollars in June 2026, the lowest level since September 2008, a decline of more than 13 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold holdings, with net purchases of around 20 tonnes in July 2026, the highest monthly buying pace since October 2023, lifting China's gold reserves to about 2,377.5 tonnes. Warawut Benjaputtarak, managing director of Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Company Limited, said the shift reflects a restructuring of reserve management from a focus on returns toward stability, amid the United States' rising debt burden and widening budget deficit, as well as geopolitical risks. Gold demand from central banks worldwide also remains strong, with combined purchases of more than 289 tonnes in the second quarter, and a World Gold Council survey indicating that 45 percent of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. However, the decline in US bond holdings does not immediately boost gold prices, because if falling bond demand pushes real yields higher, it could pressure gold through rising opportunity costs. But over the medium to long term, diversification and concerns about US debt will provide important structural support for gold demand.

Yuanta Securities Thailand has issued an analysis warning that the United States is escalating sanctions on Iran from targeting individual evasion networks to using secondary sanctions to cut Iran off from the global economy more broadly. It assesses that the current situation matches its base-case scenario, which it assigns a 50% probability, but that enforcement is still only a warning signal before full implementation, because the US has not yet immediately punished large financial institutions or major trading partners in order to avoid shocks to the global financial system. Yuanta views Iran today as more vulnerable than in the past, with inflation rising to 87.9% in July from about 10% in 2018, while the Iranian currency has weakened by around 30%. It warns that if the US Treasury begins enforcing measures against large Chinese banks or the yuan payment system, the risk would immediately escalate from the base case to a financial confrontation between the US and China, which could affect the yuan, liquidity in the financial system, and risk assets worldwide. For portfolio allocation, Yuanta recommends that investors allocate 5 to 10 percent to a satellite portfolio, focusing on two main asset groups: the security and defense theme through the DAOL-DEFENSE fund or the SHLD ETF, and gold. It recommends a strategy of gradually accumulating when prices weaken through depositary receipts including GOLD19 and GOLDUS19, the BGOLD mutual fund, or the overseas ETF GLD.

The investment strategy team at Krungthai Bank recommends a Stay Invested strategy, or continuing to invest with discipline, using a Core Portfolio as the main anchor for allocating new investment funds. Meanwhile, the Satellite Portfolio suggests gradually accumulating Technology and Semiconductor stocks during price declines, given strong market demand and earnings growth trends in AI Infrastructure, Cloud, Software, and Platform segments. China A-shares remain a strategic investment opportunity, focusing on industries supported by government policy such as AI and Technology, while Healthcare helps diversify earnings risk through innovations that are not tied to the AI cycle. For Thai property funds and REITs, the team recommends adjusting the view to Neutral after the Dividend Yield Gap has returned close to its long-term average, making upside increasingly limited. For gold, the 6 to 12 month targets are maintained at 4,915 and 5,315 dollars per ounce.

Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 level for the first time since mid-May as confidence returned to the long-sluggish crypto market, supported by the debasement trade, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and short covering. Bitcoin rose as much as 2.5% to $80,908 in Asian trading on Tuesday, August 25, its highest level since May 15, after gaining as much as 23% in the seven days through Sunday, marking its biggest weekly advance in about three years. A key catalyst came from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement last week that the U.S. government would step up buybacks of government bonds to push long-term yields lower, which spurred dollar selling and renewed investor interest in bitcoin and gold as hedges against currency debasement. Meanwhile, the 13 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net inflows of $1.92 billion last week, the highest in 10 months, including a net inflow of $606.3 million on August 20, the largest daily total in more than three months. In addition, a meeting between President Donald Trump and crypto industry executives on the same day Bessent announced the buyback measures helped revive hopes that the U.S. government remains supportive of the digital asset industry. Bitcoin's rapid rally inflicted heavy losses on bearish investors, with data from Coinglass showing that leveraged short positions in crypto assets were liquidated for a total of about $7.2 billion last week, further accelerating the price gains in a short squeeze. Still, some analysts remain cautious about the recovery, noting that the short squeeze has been a key driver, and that it remains to be seen whether investor buying will continue once short-covering pressure begins to fade.

The United States has announced a new round of sanctions on Iran under Operation Economic Outcast, targeting five key sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and maritime shipping, in order to cut off the major economic lifelines supporting Iran. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, said this is Iran's economic D-Day, and any organization that facilitates money laundering or sanctions evasion on behalf of Iran risks being cut off from the US financial system. Bessent warned China and all countries that continuing to do business with Iran carries the risk of secondary sanctions, and stated that President Donald Trump has called leaders around the world to demand an end to engagement with Iran. However, the Trump administration did not disclose specific details about these latest measures.

Global gold prices surged close to $4,700 per ounce today, having risen more than 15% in August from the month's opening price of $4,075, amid investor buying after the U.S. Treasury moved to increase buybacks of long-term government bonds and reportedly considered using funds from the Treasury General Account, or TGA, which has a balance of around $950 billion, to support the bond market and push down long-term yields. MTS Gold noted that the SPDR gold fund bought 2.28 tonnes the previous day, bringing its holdings to 1,049.49 tonnes, with net purchases of 41.62 tonnes in August. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that gold ETF funds increased their gold holdings by 46.7 tonnes, worth $6.4 billion, over the past week, the highest in 10 months, led by funds listed in North America and Europe. Kitco analyzed that technical momentum has strengthened after prices broke through key resistance levels in succession, with the next target at $4,900 and a possible path toward the psychological level of $5,000.

Hua Seng Heng has joined forces with Kasikornbank to launch real-time gold trading for both 99.99% and 96.5% purity in US dollars on the K PLUS app, starting from just 10 US dollars with no trading fees. Customers must open a K PLUS Global Savings foreign currency deposit account to convert currency and transact immediately, with prices and exchange rates referenced from Hua Seng Heng. US dollars held in the account earn deposit interest of up to 2.25% per year. Investors can also accumulate 96.5% gold in Thai baht through dollar-cost averaging and withdraw physical gold at any Hua Seng Heng branch or have it delivered to their home via Thailand Post, covering every province nationwide.

YLG Bullion and Futures says gold prices have passed their low point, expecting that any new correction will not fall below $4,200 per ounce, with a chance to reach $5,600 next year before moving on to $6,000. Meanwhile, MTS Gold sees a target of $4,700 this year, or about 74,000 baht, and next year it could touch 80,000 to 81,000 baht. This is in line with JPMorgan, which has raised its target to $5,500, and Bank of America, which expects $6,000 by 2027. Supporting factors include lack of confidence in the US economy, a public debt burden of $40 trillion, and concerns about debt default. Both firms oppose taxing gold trading, saying it would hurt liquidity, competition, and Thailand's goal of becoming a gold trading hub.

DRDGold reported record production of just under 5 tonnes of gold and an 83% surge in operating profit to ZAR6.4 billion for fiscal 2026. Revenue rose 42% to ZAR11.2 billion, headline earnings jumped 89% to ZAR4.2 billion, and free cash flow increased 85% to ZAR2.2 billion after a record ZAR3.5 billion capital expenditure program. The company declared a final cash dividend of ZAR1.20 per share, marking its 19th consecutive year of dividend payments, and guided fiscal 2027 production of between 160,000 and 170,000 ounces with cash operating costs just over ZAR1 million per kilogram. CEO Daniel Pretorius highlighted the unhedged position's benefit from a 40% gold price increase and said reduced capital spending after the Vision 2028 projects should translate into significantly higher dividend capacity.

Caibai Shares released its 2026 interim report, showing net profit attributable to the parent of 437 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year. Operating revenue was 21.04 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-recurring items was 481 million yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year. Net operating cash flow was 401 million yuan, down 69.2% year-on-year. In the second quarter, net profit attributable to the parent was 38.42 million yuan, down 72.4% year-on-year. The company said the decline in net operating cash flow was mainly due to a year-on-year increase in procurement spending, while revenue growth benefited from active demand for gold investment products.

Gold prices continued to climb to their highest level in more than three months around $4,650, after gaining more than 5% last week amid safe-haven buying driven by tensions between the United States and Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil details of a new sanctions package called Economic D-Day, while Iran has threatened that it may halt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are watching the US PCE index on Wednesday and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday, which will determine gold's next direction. If prices break through resistance at $4,685, they could test $4,700 to $4,725, while key support sits at $4,600 and then $4,530 to $4,505.

Gold and Bitcoin surged after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the Treasury would at least double its liquidity-support purchases of longer-dated Treasury securities from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. Gold climbed almost 7% to roughly $4,730 an ounce, while Bitcoin jumped more than 24% to nearly $80,000 since the announcement. Two senior Treasury officials told CNBC the department is considering using its Treasury General Account, estimated at around $950 billion, to finance expanded buybacks, which could put cash back into the financial system while Treasury purchases longer-dated securities. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.70% and the 30-year yield slipped toward 5.24%, reducing the opportunity cost of owning gold and supporting demand for scarce, supply-limited assets outside the Treasury system.

Agnico Eagle Mines agreed to pay about C$57.2 million, or US$41.5 million, to buy a roughly 10% stake in Radisson Mining Resources, helping fund underground work at Radisson's O'Brien gold project in Quebec's Abitibi region. Under the agreement, Agnico is acquiring more than 53.4 million units at C$1.07 per unit, with each unit consisting of one Radisson share and a half-share purchase warrant; each warrant entitles the holder to acquire one share at a price of C$1.39 for a period of 60 months following the closing date of the private placement. Agnico said buying the stake is part of its strategy of building strategic investments in prospective opportunities it considers to have high strategic geological potential. Radisson said the investment will support the launch of underground exploration at the O'Brien project, including the development of an access ramp, related underground and surface mine infrastructure, and water management facilities.

Bitcoin rose about 20% last week and began trading near $77,400 on Monday. Gold futures are forming an upward-sloping curve, Bitcoin dominance has fallen to 59.46%, and the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory. The notional value of BTC options expiring on August 28 has reached $6.06 billion, with a max pain level of $67,000. The debasement trade continues against the backdrop of expanded Treasury buybacks by the U.S. Treasury.

Gold extended its advance on Monday, moving above $4,650 an ounce and remaining close to a three-month high as concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and Treasury efforts to restrain longer-term borrowing costs continued to strengthen demand for the precious metal. At 02:42 ET, spot gold was up 1% at $4,650.63 an ounce, while gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,706.89. The rally follows a rise of more than 5% last week, marking a third consecutive weekly advance, and has gathered momentum following the U.S. Treasury's unexpected decision to increase purchases of longer-dated government securities. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the government could expand the buyback programme further and intends to announce a fiscal initiative to address elevated borrowing costs. ANZ analysts said gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded their largest single-day inflow since September 2025 and have now registered net inflows for five consecutive weeks, while gold has moved above its 200-day moving average near $4,513.

A Fidelity International fund manager doubled the gold allocation in his portfolio to the 5% ceiling within three weeks, amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and concerns about the dollar's safe-haven status. Portfolio manager George Efstathopoulos said he began accumulating gold after the Fed's July meeting, which was followed by selling in long-dated US government bonds, and he sees that as reflecting reduced confidence in the Fed. Gold prices recovered to a three-month high and broke above the 200-day moving average after the US Treasury increased the size of its long-term bond buybacks last week. CFTC data show that hedge funds' net long positions in gold in the week ended August 18 rose to the highest level this year. Efstathopoulos reduced holdings of high-yield bonds and some UK government bonds, and used cash in the portfolio to increase gold investment, saying the fundamentals that previously drove gold to a record high in late January remain in place, especially buying by central banks worldwide, with the People's Bank of China adding about 20 tonnes to its gold reserves in July, the most since October 2023.

Metals Exploration has announced that development at its fully owned La India gold project in Nicaragua is progressing, with first production expected in December 2026. The company reported that structural, mechanical, piping and electrical installation for the process plant is approximately 50% complete, with the grinding building structure finished, the ball mill installed, and preparations for setting the semi-autogenous grinding mill under way. Installation of carbon-in-leach tank rings is 88% complete, while leach and detox tanks are 80% and 70% finished respectively, and civil works are 93% complete on bulk earthworks and 92% on civil foundations. A $27m equipment financing agreement has been secured with Banco de America Central, with $20.2m drawn down, and approximately 244,000 tonnes of ore has been stockpiled ahead of commissioning. Mining at the company's Runruno operation in the Philippines is forecast to meet the upper end of 2026 guidance due to higher-grade ore extraction in the stage five pit.

Goldman Sachs said in a report dated the 21st that surging demand for gold options betting on higher prices could further accelerate the rally and push gold above its year-end forecast of $4,900 an ounce. It said a further recovery in demand from Western investors, combined with continued solid central bank buying, could lift spot gold toward key option strike levels, where dealer hedging could mechanically amplify price moves. The bank attributed gold's climb toward $4,600 an ounce to fading expectations for a September rate hike after the Federal Reserve held policy rates steady in July and employment and inflation data softened. That has revived speculative positioning on the New York Mercantile Exchange and boosted demand for exchange-traded funds, it said. At the same time, Goldman warned that if Fed rate-hike expectations strengthen again, dealers could unwind hedge positions and trigger a sharper-than-usual correction.

China continued to accumulate gold through the over-the-counter market in London, with estimates showing it bought more than 40 tonnes in June. That was 167% higher than the 15 tonnes of official gold reserve additions reported by the People's Bank of China in the same month. Earlier in May, China was estimated to have bought around 48 tonnes of gold through the London OTC market, while the People's Bank of China officially reported an increase of only 10 tonnes, making OTC purchases 380% higher than the officially announced figure. Since the start of 2026, China has officially added 60 tonnes to its gold reserves, lifting total gold holdings to a record high of 2,366 tonnes.