Live Cattle Futures

The Trump administration announced on the 26th that it will expand the low-tariff import quota for ground beef by a total of 300,000 tons. Starting September 1, the quota will be increased by 100,000 tons per month for three months, aiming to lower retail prices. The administration expects beef supply to increase by about 10 percent, and President Trump has instructed the Agriculture Secretary and the USTR Representative to monitor whether beef is being sold at prices 25 percent lower than current levels. In the United States, a record drought has led to a shortage of feed supplies, increasing beef production costs and reducing herd sizes, which has driven up prices. The import expansion is intended to curb price increases.

On the 21st, President Trump announced a measure to suspend high tariffs on up to 300,000 tons of imported ground beef for the next 90 days as a way to bring down soaring ground beef prices. Trump said the special measure secured commitments from businesses to sell at prices 25 percent below current market levels, and stressed that it would ease the burden on American consumers and help rebuild cattle herds depleted by drought. However, he did not provide details such as which businesses would lower prices.

US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will import 300,000 metric tonnes of ground beef products duty-free outside quota, to help Americans consume cheaper beef. The imported beef will be sold at prices up to 25% below current market prices. Trump said the deal will help lower beef prices for working American families, while giving America's cattle herd a chance to expand again, after beef prices surged rapidly and cattle numbers fell to their lowest level in modern history during the Biden administration.

Live cattle futures closed lower on Thursday with contracts down $1.52 to $4.35 across the board, while Tyson announced it will shut its Joslin, Illinois plant and sell its Pasco, Washington plant. The Joslin plant processes 3,000 head per day and the Pasco plant 2,000 head per day, and Tyson also said its Amarillo, Texas plant will ramp up production after cutting back kill last fall. Cash trade included some $228 to $230 sales in the North, and the Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange auction showed no sales on the 1,308 head offered with bids of $228. Feeder cattle futures saw $1.40 to $3.52 losses across most contracts, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $3.44 on August 12 to $351.93. USDA export sales data showed beef sales for 2026 at 14,426 metric tons for the week ending August 6, a three-week low, with South Korea buying 5,300 metric tons and Japan 3,000 metric tons. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice boxes up $3.62 at $375.90 and Select down 57 cents at $349.24, widening the Choice/Select spread to $26.66.

Live cattle futures fell $3 to $3.50 in most contracts, while feeder cattle futures dropped $4.65 to $5.40 at the Thursday close. Cash trade kicked off with some $383 dressed in the North and $244 to $245 live, with southern bids at $245. The CME Feeder Cattle Index declined $1.62 to $373.17 on February 24. Beef export sales hit a six-week low of 12,902 metric tons in the week ending February 19, with Japan the top buyer at 4,500 metric tons. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice down $1.34 to $377.89 and Select up $3.72 to $370.79, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to $7.10.

The USDA has decided to resume limited cattle imports from Mexico, reopening selected southern ports for U.S. processors including Tyson Foods, while also introducing new tariffs on Canadian goods that affect beef and related products. These measures influence Tyson Foods' access to cattle supply and the relative pricing of domestic versus imported meat products. The company, a major U.S. beef, pork, and poultry processor, faces changing conditions for sourcing animals and competing on U.S. shelves. Investors may watch for updates on how Tyson Foods adjusts its procurement mix and pricing as the new rules filter through supply contracts and retailer negotiations.

Live cattle futures fell $2.10 to $5.05 at midday Monday, while feeder cattle futures collapsed with losses of $7.75 to the $10.75 limit, after the USDA announced plans to resume imports of Mexican cattle through the Douglas, Arizona port of entry by August 23 and two additional New Mexico ports later. Cash trade last week was reported at $230 to $231 across the country, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $1.07 on July 23 to $349.65. The latest Cattle on Feed report showed June placements down 2.91% from a year ago at 1.399 million head, marketings 2.69% lower at 1.661 million head, and July 1 on-feed inventory up 2.21% versus 2025 at 11.37 million head, with heifers on feed at 4.25 million head representing 37.38% of the total, the lowest July ratio since 2018. Bi-annual inventory data indicated 28.45 million beef cows, down 0.7% year-over-year, while replacement beef heifers rose 2.9% to 3.6 million head and the 2026 calf crop was estimated 1.5% lower at 32.5 million head. USDA Cold Storage figures showed June 30 beef stocks tightening 3.43% from the end of May to 389.23 million pounds, down 2.76% from a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report revealed managed money slashed 20,961 contracts from their net long in live cattle futures and options to 75,363 contracts, and spec funds cut 1,975 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle to 7,905 contracts as of July 21. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice boxes up $1.72 at $362.96 and Select a quarter lower at $346.46, while federally inspected cattle slaughter last week totaled 528,000 head, up 3,000 from the prior week but 15,766 below the same week last year.

Live cattle futures closed Thursday with contracts down $2.35 to $3.05, while feeder cattle futures fell $3.35 to $4.40. Cash trade picked up with a few light northern sales at $378 to $380 dressed and live action reported at $238 to $240, with Southern trade at $237 to $238. The CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped $3.55 on July 15 to $365.52. USDA export sales data showed beef sales for 2026 at 7,973 metric tons for the week ending July 9, the fourth lowest total for the calendar year, while shipments of 10,354 metric tons marked a calendar year low. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with Choice boxes down $2.90 at $369.34 and Select $3.49 lower to $355.69. Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Tuesday was 109,000 head, bringing the week-to-date total to 433,000 head, up 3,000 from the previous week but 29,283 below the same week last year.

Live cattle futures are trading sharply lower at midday on Thursday, with several contract months down $3 per hundredweight or more, while feeder cattle futures are down over $5 after the U.S. Trade Representative exempted Brazilian beef from a new 25% tariff proposal. Cash trade began to pick up, with a few light northern sales at $378 to $380 dressed and live action reported at $235 to $240 by the USDA. Export sales data showed beef sales for 2026 at 7,973 metric tons for the week ending July 9, the fourth lowest total for the calendar year, while shipments of 10,354 metric tons marked a calendar year low. Wholesale boxed beef prices declined, with Choice boxes down $1.94 to $369.34 and Select $1.22 lower to $357.96. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $1.25 on July 14 to $369.07.

Live cattle futures fell $2 to $2.30 on Friday, with the October contract losing $6 for the week. Cash trade settled at $240, down $2 from the prior week. Feeder cattle futures tumbled $4.82 to $7.25 in the front months, and the September contract was down $9.42 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped 40 cents to $363.08 on September 11. Managed money added 561 contracts to their net long in live cattle futures and options, reaching 131,003 contracts, while speculators cut 2,739 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle, reducing it to 25,636 contracts. USDA Choice boxed beef dropped 75 cents to $400.04 and Select fell $1.51 to $378.44, with the Choice-Select spread at $21.60. Weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 561,000 head, down 62,990 from the same week in 2024.

Skylark Meats, part of American Foods Group, will permanently close its entire Omaha, Nebraska beef processing plant at 4430 South 110th Street, resulting in 218 layoffs effective August 25, 2026. The affected workers are not unionized and lack bumping rights, though the company is encouraging them to apply at affiliated facilities. The largest job cuts are in general labor, with 72 positions eliminated, alongside roles in cutting, forklift operation, maintenance, quality assurance, and management. This closure adds to a wave of Nebraska food manufacturing layoffs, following WK Kellogg’s 451-job cut in Omaha and over 3,500 cuts by Tyson Foods in Lexington, totaling more than 4,000 lost positions since late 2025. The shutdown comes amid tight cattle supplies and rising beef prices, with USDA forecasting a 7.5% increase in beef and veal prices for 2026.

October live cattle futures may have reached a near-term top, with Monday's price action negating an uptrend and signaling a potential selling opportunity. A move below chart support at $236.00 would strengthen the bearish case, targeting a downside objective of $210.00 or lower, while technical resistance sits at the contract high of $246.55. Elevated beef prices and high gasoline costs could shift consumer demand toward cheaper proteins like pork and poultry, especially as BLT season approaches.

The monthly Cattle on Feed report showed February placements at 1.554 million head, down 17.78% from last year and below the average trade estimate. February marketings were down 8.92% at 1.663 million head, while March 1 on feed data came in at 11.577 million head, down 2.2% compared to the level last year and below the estimate of a 1.7% decline. Live cattle futures fell into the Friday close, with nearby losses of $1.52 to $2.47, as traders lightened up ahead of the report. Cash trade was on the move, up $7 to $8 from last week in the South at $210, while Northern business came in at $212 to $216, a $6 to $9 improvement week over week. Feeder cattle futures also pulled back, closing down $1.87 to $4, though March was still up $4.50 on the week.