Aluminum (CME)

US President Donald Trump has acknowledged that the United States has substantial demand for aluminum and still depends primarily on imports from Canada, even though he previously insisted repeatedly that the US did not need to rely on Canada. The admission comes amid intensifying trade conflict between the two countries, with a 50 percent tariff on metals becoming a central issue in the dispute. Trump said during a telephone address supporting Mike Mazzei, the Republican candidate for governor of Oklahoma, that the US needs aluminum badly, while conceding that the country does not have enough aluminum to meet demand and that most of it must be imported from Canada. Later the same day, Trump posted on Truth Social in support of a project to build an aluminum plant in Inola, Oklahoma, saying the plant is something the US urgently needs, and warning that if the project is not approved, the investment could move elsewhere. Currently, more than half of the aluminum consumed by the United States each year is produced in Canada, giving Canada a critical role in the supply chain for American industry, especially automobile manufacturing and appliances such as washing machines in Michigan, which is considered one of the key political battleground states. Last week, the United States and Canada came close to reaching an agreement that would cut aluminum import tariffs in half, but the Trump administration faced pushback from the domestic steel and aluminum industry, which urged the government to avoid making too many concessions to Canada. As a result, the issue has become one of the obstacles in trade negotiations between the two sides.

Norsk Hydro's majority-owned alumina refinery Alunorte has reached a deal with gas supplier CELBA, part of New Fortress Energy, for temporary terminal access to continue receiving natural gas for alumina production. Alunorte has begun increasing alumina production following the agreement. Lost output during the period of reduced production is estimated at 100,000 to 120,000 tons. The company said the potential third-quarter 2026 financial impact for Bauxite & Alumina from reduced production and purchasing gas above contract price may be 75 to 100 million dollars. Earlier, there was a disruption to the supply of natural gas from CELBA.

Rio Tinto has reached an agreement with the Australian government and the New South Wales government to secure the long-term future of Australia's largest aluminum smelter. Under the agreement, Tomago Aluminium will enter into a 10-year power purchase agreement for electricity supply to the smelter to 2038, with the power to be supplied entirely from renewable sources starting in 2033. Tomago will support the new agreement with A$1.1 billion of investment in the smelter between now and 2038, including A$100 million for decarbonization initiatives. Rio Tinto had warned that Tomago, Australia's largest electricity user, could be forced to close if it failed to secure commercially viable power beyond 2028. Tomago Aluminium is an independently managed joint venture owned by Rio Tinto, Gove Aluminium Finance, and Norsk Hydro.

Zhejiang Jinfei Kaida Wheel Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary in Zhanyi District, Qujing, Yunnan, is advancing a smart manufacturing project for 1.2 million aluminum alloy automotive wheels annually, following the earlier commissioning of a project producing 60,000 tonnes of low-carbon aluminum alloy rods per year. The base has signed supply and sales agreements with a neighboring large aluminum plant, enabling direct delivery of liquid aluminum, eliminating the cooling, transportation, and remelting of aluminum ingots, significantly reducing costs and carbon emissions. The Zhanyi base primarily serves the southwestern market, with customers covering original equipment manufacturers in Chongqing, Changsha, Liuzhou, and other locations, while production plans are centrally allocated by the parent company. The company has entered the supply chains of multiple leading automakers through certifications such as the automotive parts 16949 standard, and is exploring the establishment of off-site research and development centers to strive for recognition as a national-level high-tech enterprise.

Gongyi Huifeng, a wholly-owned second-tier subsidiary of Zhongfu Industrial, plans to acquire the capacity quota and some assets of Gongyi Xinge's annual 200,000-ton recycled aluminum water project for 33.2057 million yuan, and on this basis invest in the construction of a project asset upgrade and renovation project and a new annual 100,000-ton recycled aluminum water project.

The electrolytic aluminum sector has recently seen both earnings and share prices rise, with institutions broadly bullish on future opportunities. The Wind Aluminum Industry Index has gained 7.62% over the past month, while Yunnan Aluminum and Shenhuo Coal & Power rose 20.23% and 22.97% respectively over the same period. Yunnan Aluminum expects net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.5 billion to 7.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, up 170.98% to 181.82% year-on-year, with second-quarter net profit alone reaching a record high of 3.9 billion to 4.2 billion yuan. Zhongfu Industrial expects first-half net profit of 1.8 billion to 1.95 billion yuan, up 154.42% to 175.62% year-on-year. Tianshan Aluminum expects first-half net profit of 4.2 billion yuan, up 101.52% year-on-year. Soochow Securities noted that the supply-side reform cap of around 45 million tonnes of capacity limits supply, while demand grows steadily, supporting a long-term bull case for aluminum prices. CMB International expects the global electrolytic aluminum supply deficit to widen to 2% of global demand in 2026, mainly due to production disruptions at Middle Eastern smelters, with aluminum prices rising 15% year-on-year. Zhongtai Securities believes that the widening overseas supply deficit will prolong the industry's tight supply-demand situation, and recommends institutional investors actively position in the electrolytic aluminum sector for defense.

On overseas commodity futures markets, the most active NYMEX crude oil contract settled at 83.59 dollars a barrel, down 0.87 dollars from the previous day. Meanwhile, the most active COMEX gold contract surged 124.30 dollars to 4,160.60 dollars, a sharp gain of 3.08 percent. The three-month LME copper contract finished 33.50 dollars higher at 13,768.50 dollars, and three-month LME aluminum ended 20.00 dollars higher at 3,198.25 dollars.

Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Holdings plans to issue shares to targeted investors to raise up to 12 billion yuan, for the construction of wind power, solar power, and aluminum deep processing projects. The projects will be located in Yunnan and Shandong, forming a source-load matching model of wind and solar new energy plus electrolytic aluminum load with existing capacity, and creating an integrated green power to green aluminum industry chain. The company's green power usage ratio had risen to 40 percent by the end of 2025, and this fundraising will further enhance its independent clean power supply capability, reduce electricity costs, and consolidate its cost advantage.

Citi upgraded Ford Motor to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $20 from $19, citing improving F-Series pickup production, easing warranty costs, and better aluminum supply. The brokerage noted that Ford's shares have been out of favor, with only three Buy ratings among 18 analysts covering the stock, compared with 15 Buy ratings for General Motors among 22 firms. Ford reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $0.42, beating Citi's estimate of $0.34 and the FactSet consensus of $0.36, and raised the midpoint of its full-year guidance by $1 billion. Citi lifted its 2026 EPS forecast to $1.90 from $1.75, while increasing its 2027 and 2028 estimates to $2.10 and $2.30, respectively. The brokerage expects second-half F-Series production to rise about 28%, supported by the resolution of last year's aluminum supplier disruption, and anticipates warranty accruals to decline by $1.5 billion this year after first-half accruals fell by roughly $1 billion year over year. Citi also highlighted Ford's growing non-automotive revenue opportunities, noting subscription services increased 20% annually to 1.6 million in the second quarter. The new $20 target price applies the upper end of Ford's historical valuation ranges to its higher 2027-2028 earnings estimates.

Memory module maker Apacer Technology recently warned that the world's three major DRAM manufacturers are channeling almost all new capacity into AI products such as HBM, server DDR5, and LPDDR5X, while the allocation of chips for standard DDR5, DDR4, and the industrial control market continues to shrink. The supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to ease in the short term. Based on the manufacturers' supply plans, the amount of DRAM available to module makers will keep declining, prices will keep rising, and the imbalance may persist at least until the first half of 2027. Currently, over 70 percent of the three major manufacturers' new capacity is directed toward AI products. Multiple institutions and companies predict that as long as AI investment shows no clear signs of cooling, this situation of high prices and tight supply will last at least until the first half of 2027. On the same day, the General Principles for Cost Accounting Models in the Photovoltaic Industry was officially released. By unifying the cost calculation scope, coefficients, and models across the entire polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module supply chain, it establishes a cost accounting framework that spans the whole industry chain, guiding the sector from price-driven to value-driven competition. In addition, total aluminum inventories at the London Metal Exchange fell to 271,275 tonnes, the lowest level this century, equivalent to less than one day of global aluminum consumption. This highlights the structural vulnerability of market supply, and industry insiders believe the low inventory will further support the strong trend in global aluminum prices.

SeAH Aerospace & Defense has signed a long-term agreement to supply high-strength aluminum alloys to Airbus, becoming the first Korean materials company to secure a direct supply deal with the European planemaker. The agreement, formalized at the Farnborough International Airshow 2026, was signed ahead of final product certification, with the quality certification process set to begin in the second half of this year and full-scale production and supply expected to start in 2028. The alloys will be used in Airbus fuselages and wing structures, and the deal reflects Airbus's strategy to secure a stable procurement network amid rising aircraft demand and limited supply of aviation-grade materials. SeAH A&D already supplies Boeing, Israel Aerospace Industries, and Embraer, and is building a new manufacturing facility in Changnyeong, Korea, scheduled to begin operations in 2027 to meet growing global demand.

Norsk Hydro reported a sharp rise in second-quarter profit, driven by one-time gains and higher revenues. Net income reached 5.97 billion Norwegian kroner, up from 2.45 billion kroner a year earlier, with earnings per share climbing to 2.90 kroner from 1.04 kroner. The results included unrealized derivative gains of 3.09 billion kroner, mainly on LME-related contracts. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15 percent to 8.92 billion kroner, while revenue grew 6 percent to 56.49 billion kroner, supported by higher aluminium prices and improved recycling margins.

The global high-pressure die casting market is projected to grow from USD 62.8 billion in 2025 to USD 121.6 billion by 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 6.1%, according to a new report by Custom Market Insights. The market was valued at approximately USD 62.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 67.4 billion in 2026. Growth is driven by rising demand for lightweight components in electric vehicles and aerospace, increased use of aluminum and magnesium alloys, and advances in vacuum-assisted and automated die casting processes. Aluminum high-pressure die castings held the largest market share in 2025, while the Asia Pacific region is expected to show the highest growth rate due to expanding automotive production and industrial automation in countries such as China, India, and Japan.

Statistics New Zealand announced on the 20th that the seasonally adjusted trade balance for June was a deficit of NZ$542 million, narrowing from the previous month's deficit of NZ$1.087 billion. Exports rose 5.5 percent month-on-month to NZ$7.821 billion, driven by growth in meat, dairy products, and aluminium. Imports fell 1.6 percent to NZ$8.362 billion, with an increase in crude oil offset by declines in tobacco and books.

President Trump signed a proclamation on the 20th establishing preferential treatment for aluminum tariffs. For aluminum newly produced from ore, companies investing in new, expanded, or upgraded smelters within the United States will see their tariff rate halved from 50% to 25% on volumes corresponding to their production plans. The measure addresses a shortage of domestically produced aluminum used in defense-related goods and other applications, and requires that capital investment begin by January 20, 2029. The Secretary of Commerce will review investment amounts and production outlooks, and upon approval, the equivalent of the completed facility's annual output may be imported each year at the reduced rate.

As of July 19, 900 companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have disclosed their earnings previews for the first half of 2026. The combined net profit forecast surged 147 percent year-on-year, with 57 percent of the companies expecting to be in the black. The nonferrous metals sector ranked first in projected net profit, with 38 companies that have issued previews reporting a total of approximately 64.5 billion yuan, up 161 percent from a year earlier, driven mainly by rising prices of aluminum, lithium, germanium, and tungsten. The electronics sector benefited from booming demand for AI computing infrastructure, with 85 companies posting a combined net profit of 58.5 billion yuan, a 176 percent increase. In addition, the lithium battery and pharmaceutical and biotech industries also staged a strong recovery. EVE Energy forecast a net profit of 3.13 billion to 3.37 billion yuan, up 95 to 110 percent year-on-year, while 53 innovative drug companies reported a combined net profit of about 7.27 billion yuan, a 60 percent rise.

Alcoa Corporation reported record quarterly revenue of $4 billion for the second quarter of 2026, a 24 percent sequential increase. Net income attributable to Alcoa was $407 million, or $1.53 per share, while adjusted net income rose 51 percent sequentially to $562 million, or $2.12 per share. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items also climbed 51 percent to $901 million, driven by higher aluminum prices and shipments. The company generated $608 million in cash from operations and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.4 billion after redeeming the remaining $219 million of its 6.125% Senior Notes due 2028. Alcoa also announced a definitive agreement to acquire South32's interests in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for upfront consideration of approximately $4.1 billion plus a contingent value right of up to $750 million.

Constellium has signed a 10-year power purchase agreement with the community of Gottmadingen to source locally produced solar electricity for its extrusion and automotive structures plants in Gottmadingen and Singen, Germany. The company will receive the full output of the Katzental solar park, covering over 25% of the two plants' combined electricity needs and avoiding approximately 3,500 metric tons of CO₂ emissions per year. Deliveries are expected to begin in spring 2027 after the necessary electrical infrastructure is installed. The agreement supports Constellium's efforts to reduce its environmental footprint and strengthen its offering of low-carbon aluminum solutions to automotive customers.

The CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, tracked by the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, surged 5.54% yesterday. As of the close on July 14, 2026, the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF saw a turnover rate of 5.47%, with trading volume reaching 1.161 billion yuan, and closed up 5.98% on the day. Factors such as copper inventory destocking, the implementation of new national standards for rare earths, and the growing strategic value of minor metals have jointly fueled the sector's rally, with the market's previously pessimistic pricing of long-term supply and demand seeing some correction. In industrial metals, copper concentrate processing fees remain low, while both exchange and social inventories of copper have declined simultaneously. Aluminum inventory destocking continues, and tin supply remains relatively tight. In rare earths, the implementation of new national standards for recycled rare earths has tightened compliant scrap supply, strengthening constraints on praseodymium-neodymium supply and demand. Minor metals such as tungsten, molybdenum, tantalum-niobium, and tin are seeing their strategic attributes further highlighted, driven by demand from domestic substitution, the AI industry chain, and high-end manufacturing.

Dingsheng New Materials has issued a first-half profit forecast, expecting net profit of 450 million to 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139.36% to 176.60%. The company said the profit growth was mainly due to strong downstream demand for new energy battery aluminum foil and carbon-coated aluminum foil, with production and sales volumes significantly higher than the same period last year, driving overall profit growth.

Yee Chiu Resources disclosed an earnings forecast, expecting net profit attributable to the parent for the first half of 2026 to be between 179 million yuan and 264 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 510% to 800%. Deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be between 173 million yuan and 258 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 427% to 686%. The company stated that due to the impact of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz combined with overseas aluminum smelter shutdowns have led to a temporary global aluminum supply gap, with a significant widening of price spreads between domestic and overseas markets. The company leveraged its channel allocation advantages to increase the proportion of overseas sales, driving an overall year-on-year improvement in gross profit. At the same time, tight global commodity supply and demand and geopolitical conflicts have pushed up overall prices of ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and precious metals, raising the average selling prices of the company's various main products and boosting overall profit growth.

Diantou Energy announced that it expects net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first half of 2026 to be between 5.173 billion yuan and 5.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.76% to 51.59%. The change in performance is mainly due to improving supply and demand in the electrolytic aluminum industry and high aluminum prices, which significantly boosted profitability in the aluminum segment, as well as the company's quality and efficiency improvements and enhanced coal-power-aluminum integration synergies following a major asset restructuring. The company's net profit for the second quarter is expected to be between 3.172 billion yuan and 3.379 billion yuan, up 58% to 68% quarter-on-quarter.

Hongqiao Holdings issued an announcement, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first half of 2026 to be between 15 billion and 16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.72% to 81.04%. The profit growth was mainly due to a significant year-on-year rise in the selling price of electrolytic aluminium, which markedly improved the gross profit of related businesses, while a reduction in borrowings led to a substantial decrease in financial interest expenses.

Shanghai Bei Bian Technology has officially submitted its listing application materials to the Beijing Stock Exchange. It expects first-half revenue this year of 270 million to 330 million yuan and net profit of 29 million to 35 million yuan, both up more than 40 percent year-on-year. However, looking at a longer period, from 2023 to 2025 the company's revenue rose from 280 million yuan to 440 million yuan, a cumulative increase of nearly 58 percent, but net profit attributable to the parent grew only slightly from 42.957 million yuan to 52.847 million yuan, with the year-on-year growth rate in 2025 narrowing sharply to 2.8 percent, a clear loss of momentum. The overall gross margin has fallen for three consecutive years, from 29.57 percent to 24.02 percent, mainly because direct materials account for over 80 percent of costs and copper and aluminum purchase prices have kept rising. Facing a sales concentration of over 56 percent among its top five customers such as Inovance Technology, the company lacks pricing power, and the selling prices of its main products have fallen rather than risen. Accounts receivable typically account for around half of current assets, and inventory has surged 112.1 percent over three years, causing the ratio of net operating cash flow to net profit to stay below 0.5 times for three years, with a net outflow of nearly 20 million yuan in 2024. The company plans to raise 485 million yuan in this IPO, of which 110 million yuan will be used to replenish working capital, but it has yet to obtain the property rights for the land of its core investment project.

Nexans and Hydro have signed a five-year agreement for the supply of approximately 85,000 tonnes of low-carbon aluminium wire rod to support Europe's grid modernisation. The aluminium, produced using 100% renewable energy in Norway, will be used across Nexans' European operations in power cable solutions for medium-voltage grids, overhead transmission lines and subsea high-voltage infrastructure. The deal provides long-term supply security for Europe's growing electricity infrastructure needs while reducing embedded emissions, as the Hydro REDUXA material has a verified carbon footprint below 4.0 kg CO₂ per kg aluminium, less than one-third of the global average. The agreement runs until 2030 and aligns with Hydro's recent investment to expand aluminium wire rod capacity at its Karmøy smelter in Norway. Both companies emphasised that such partnerships are critical for resilient and sustainable supply chains as Europe accelerates its energy transition.

Global electricity demand growth is set to outstrip GDP growth for the first time, according to Bank of America strategists. Electricity demand is expected to grow significantly faster than real GDP between 2026 and 2028, driven by the expansion of AI data centers and electric vehicles. Global power usage by data centers is projected to rise from about 55 gigawatts to 84 gigawatts in the next two years, equivalent to the power consumption of roughly 70 million homes. This surge in electrification is boosting demand for metals critical to the energy transition, with copper prices up 21% over the past year, aluminum up 12%, and lithium and cobalt soaring roughly 150% and 85%, respectively. Global copper demand is forecast to climb from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, with data center demand alone potentially reaching 475,000 tons in 2026, up from 110,000 tons in 2025, according to JPMorgan.

Kraft Heinz's $600 million brand investment plan, launched after halting a corporate breakup in February, rests on the assumption that commodity inflation has peaked, but new data from the American Farm Bureau Federation shows a July 4 cookout for 10 people will cost a record $73.82 this year. Ground beef, central to the company's meats portfolio, hit its highest price ever at $14.06 for two pounds, up 5.5% from last year, driven by a cattle herd trending toward a 70-year low. Pork and beans jumped 13.8% to $3.06 due to rising aluminum costs, and strawberries climbed 12.4% to $5.27 after a Florida frost. CFO Andre Maciel told analysts on May 6 that inflation had peaked for coffee and meats, but the AFBF data suggests cost relief may not arrive on schedule, threatening a repeat of 2025 when adjusted operating income fell 15.9% to $1.2 billion. With Kroger's private-label sales outpacing national brands by 175 basis points in its latest quarter, consumers are increasingly trading down, raising the stakes for Kraft Heinz's second-quarter earnings report in early August.

The global aluminum extrusion market is projected to grow from $111.88 billion in 2024 to $166.65 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of 7%. Solid profiles dominate the product segment due to their structural integrity and cost-effective production. The 6xxx alloy grade holds the largest market share, favored for its balance of extrudability, strength, and corrosion resistance. Mill-finished surfaces are expected to see the highest growth, driven by cost-effectiveness and shorter lead times. The construction and infrastructure sector remains the leading end-use industry, while Asia Pacific accounts for the largest regional share, supported by rapid industrialization and demand from construction and automotive sectors.

Brimstone and Century Aluminum have signed a memorandum of understanding to establish the first fully domestic mine-to-metal primary aluminum supply chain in the United States. Under the agreement, Brimstone will supply Century with significant volumes of alumina from its forthcoming plant, using a proprietary process that avoids bauxite by refining a common calcium-bearing silicate rock abundant in the US. Century recently announced a joint project to build the largest US primary aluminum plant ever in Inola, Oklahoma, which would double domestic capacity, and has restarted idle capacity at its Mt. Holly, South Carolina plant, increasing domestic capacity by 10 percent. Brimstone's commercial demonstration plant in Reno, Nevada is expected to be operational in 2028, with its first industrial-scale plant anticipated by 2034 and an annual production capacity of approximately 350,000 metric tons of smelter-grade alumina. The partnership aims to reduce reliance on imports, as China currently accounts for about 60 percent of global alumina and aluminum production, while the US produces less than one-sixth of the aluminum it consumes.