％United States Government Bond 10Y
US-10Y
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10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.78% to 4.96% on surging oil and above-expectation headline PPI, pushing September rate-hike odds to 70%.
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Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000, Aided by Falling Oil, Short Squeeze, and Resumption of ETF Inflows
Bitcoin rebounded 8% from a seven-day low of about $75,500 to reach $81,800. Falling crude oil prices eased inflation concerns and helped fuel a short squeeze above $80,000. U.S. Central Command commander Brad Cooper indicated an increase in crude oil, cargo, and liquefied natural gas shipments, and Brent crude fell from around $111 on September 11 to about $104, while WTI crude also dropped from $106 to below $100. The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, but the crypto market saw $201 million in forced liquidations over 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $112.9 million. A motion to begin deliberation on the CLARITY Act failed by a vote of 49 to 50, and its probability of passage fell from 31% to 7%, while the SEC introduced a five-year conditional exemption for TSV to handle tokenized NMS equities, and the CFTC also sent crypto trading and market regulation proposals to the White House. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of about $159 million on Thursday and $433 million on September 18, marking the first back-to-back net inflows since September 3.
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Fed raises rates by 0.25 points, widening divides across housing, credit cards, AI and Bitcoin
The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 3.75–4.00%. The vote was unanimous at 12–0, and 16 of the 18 participants expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. Major U.S. banks have raised their prime rate from 6.75% to 7.00%, and the extra cost is already flowing through to credit cards and variable-rate business loans. Homeowners who locked in 30-year fixed mortgages at rates in the 2–3% range during the pandemic's low-rate era, however, will not see their payments rise right away, while those buying now face the 30-year fixed average of 6.76% that Freddie Mac reported as of September 10, 2026, widening the divide between generations. In San Francisco, two economies coexist: AI companies and those with stock-based compensation on one side, and early-stage startups funding themselves through loans along with restaurants, retailers and freelancers on the other. Higher rates are a headwind for Bitcoin on the liquidity front, but for stablecoin issuers that hold short-term U.S. Treasuries as reserve assets, they are a driver of expanding interest income.
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Solana ETFs Notch 12 Straight Weeks of Inflows as Bitcoin Posts Smallest Weekly Gain in 141 Weeks
Spot Solana ETFs extended their inflow streak to 12 consecutive weeks, pulling in $13.2 million in the week ending September 18, 2026, while Bitcoin spot ETFs netted just $6.2 million over the same period, the smallest weekly inflow in the funds' 141 weeks of trading since launching on January 11, 2024. Solana's daily flows were modest but never negative, with $11.01 million on September 14, $1.35 million on September 15, $836,926 on September 16 and no change on September 17, even as the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act by a 49 to 50 vote on September 15 and the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to an upper bound of 3.75% to 4.00% the next day. Bitcoin funds swung sharply in contrast, losing $450.33 million on September 15 and $295.98 million on September 16 before recovering with $159.45 million on September 17 and $433.03 million on September 18, leaving three positive sessions worth $752.52 million against two negative sessions of $746.31 million and a total gross movement of $1.499 billion. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, FBTC, posted the largest single-day inflow at $310.7 million, while the iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, added $108 million. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, BSOL, was the only Solana fund with disclosed inflows for the week and closed 12.12% higher, ahead of SOL's own 11.29% gain, as Bitcoin funds hold cumulative inflows of $55.16 billion and net assets of $102.53 billion versus Solana's $1.37 billion and $1.42 billion.