CGSI names 14 top picks for Q2 2026 earnings season, flags communication and tourism sectors as disappointment risks

Analyst
โดย HoonVision·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

CGSI assesses listed-company earnings for the second quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical sector driving growth while the communication and tourism sectors may disappoint. The firm maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points and selects BH, PR9, THAI, ERW, CRC, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR as top picks. The research team notes that the non-bank sector will see net profit decline 14 percent year-on-year and 7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. The petrochemical sector is likely to be supported by higher spreads, while the transport sector, especially airlines, tends to weaken due to rising fuel costs stemming from the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the ICT and tourism sectors face risks of disappointment, as Bloomberg consensus estimates of strong net profit growth of 26 percent year-on-year for ICT and 15 percent year-on-year for tourism are unlikely to materialize amid a still-weak economy and a 4 percent year-on-year drop in foreign tourist arrivals. Tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices have caused Thailand to face twin deficits, with a trade deficit of 12.4 billion US dollars and a current account deficit of 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026. Elevated oil prices also increase the risk of government price intervention, which would pressure margins for downstream oil and gas businesses and could push inflation higher in the second half of 2026. While the Bank of Thailand views current inflation as likely temporary, the research team believes the central bank will not raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, 2026. Regarding the Senate election collusion case, the Election Commission expects to conclude the investigation by the end of August, but the timeline may be extended. The most likely scenario is that charges will be filed against only some individuals, which would negatively affect market sentiment, and the broader legal proceedings would take longer than before. The SET currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, but this drops to 14 times when excluding DELTA, which has a forward P/E of 83 times. CGSI maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points. Positive factors that could support the market include an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, while downside risks are the Election Commission filing charges against key politicians from coalition parties and a sharp slowdown in tourist arrivals.

Impact on stocks 14

Financials± Mixed · 3 stocks
Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 2 stocks
Health Care▲ · 2 stocks
Consumer Discretionary± Mixed · 2 stocks
Climate Adaptation & Water▲ · 1 stocks
Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
Aerospace & Aviation▼ · 1 stocks
Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▼ · 1 stocks
Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
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