Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, said in its earnings call that results for the first six months of 2026 showed total revenue of 36.48 billion baht and net profit of 3.52 billion baht. The company expressed confidence that business momentum in the second half will continue to grow, after assessing that pork and chicken prices have passed their low point for the year and are likely to improve. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.225 baht per share, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 24 August 2026 and payment scheduled for 10 September 2026. For the longer term, TFG continues to expand its retail business alongside growth in Vietnam, to add revenue channels and support sustained future growth.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Thai Foods Group, or TFG, said higher pork prices are directly boosting its revenue and profit, while chicken prices have also risen as a substitute product. Chief Executive Officer Petch Nantawisai said export demand for chicken in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan remains strong from the third quarter through mid-fourth quarter of 2026. The company has locked in soybean and soybean meal prices until the end of 2026, helping keep feed costs low and stable, and aims to expand Thai Foods Fresh Market to 875 branches by the end of this year and 1,075 branches by the end of next year. Sittiphan Thanakiatphinyo, president of the National Swine Raisers Association, said farm-gate pork prices are at 72 to 74 baht per kilogram, about 1 to 2 baht above cost, and are expected to hold steady until mid-September 2026 before easing slightly during the vegetarian festival.

The Department of Internal Trade met with the Swine Raisers Association, broiler and layer associations, and major operators on 20 August 2026 to monitor price conditions and manage supply balance. It said consumption demand has continued to rise under the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme, causing farm-gate prices to adjust in line with market mechanisms. Mr. Sitthiphan Thanakiatphinyo, president of the National Swine Raisers Association, said live hog farm-gate prices are at 72 to 74 baht per kilogramme, 1 to 2 baht above cost, and may edge up slightly over the next one to two weeks before stabilising until mid-September. Kasikorn Securities assessed that farm-gate pork prices are likely to rise by 2 baht per kilogramme because output has fallen as pigs grow more slowly and face higher illness risk during the rainy season, which is positive for CPF, BTG and TFG if feed costs do not increase.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Three listed companies have disclosed continued growth prospects for the second half of 2026. TFG expects pig and chicken prices to have passed their lowest point, and its Thai Foods Fresh Market retail business has 748 branches, accelerating expansion to 875 branches by year-end, while investing in feed mills and farms in Vietnam. SSP posted first-half net profit of 325.1 million baht and electricity sales revenue of 1.5721 billion baht, and is preparing to sell power from two community waste-to-energy plants by year-end, with production capacity expected to more than double by 2028. DEMCO reported first-half net profit of 30.2 million baht, up 519.4 percent from the same period last year, with a backlog of 2.699 billion baht to be gradually recognised as revenue through 2028.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, announced it is accelerating the expansion of Thai Foods Fresh Market from 748 branches as of the second quarter of 2026 to 875 branches by the end of 2026, up from the original target of 850 branches, viewing it as a key new S-curve for its retail business. Meanwhile, the company is constructing a new animal feed factory in Vietnam, expanding its chicken business, and adding pig farms. The projects are expected to be gradually completed by the end of 2026 and begin supporting revenue from 2027. Chief Executive Officer Petch Nantawisai said pig and chicken prices passed their lowest point in May and have a chance to recover during the rest of the year, supporting the 2026 revenue target of setting a new record high. For the first six months of 2026, the company reported total revenue of 36.48 billion baht and net profit of 3.52 billion baht. It also approved an interim dividend of 0.225 baht per share, with the ex-dividend date on 24 August 2026 and dividend payment on 10 September 2026.

The board of Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, has approved an interim dividend payment of 0.225 baht per share from second-quarter 2026 operating results. The XD date is set for 24 August, with dividend payment on 10 September 2026. In the quarter, the company posted total revenue of 18.6 billion baht and net profit of 1.47 billion baht. Its retail business, Thai Foods Fresh Market, generated revenue of 8.76 billion baht, up 29.45 percent from the same period last year, driven by an increase in branches to 748 from 615 at the end of 2025. The company targets expanding to 875 branches by year-end and maintains its 2026 revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, reported second-quarter 2026 results with total revenue of 18.6 billion baht and net profit of 1.47 billion baht. Its Thai Foods Fresh Market retail stores, part of the business, generated revenue of 8.76 billion baht, up 29.45 percent from the same period last year, as the number of branches rose to 748 from 615 at the end of 2025. The board approved an interim cash dividend of 0.225 baht per share, with the XD date set for 24 August 2026 and payment on 10 September 2026. Chief Executive Officer Petch Nantawisai said the company targets expanding retail branches to 875 and is accelerating growth in Vietnam, a key growth driver, while maintaining its 2026 revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent and the chance to set another new revenue record.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

CGSI assesses listed-company earnings for the second quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical sector driving growth while the communication and tourism sectors may disappoint. The firm maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points and selects BH, PR9, THAI, ERW, CRC, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR as top picks. The research team notes that the non-bank sector will see net profit decline 14 percent year-on-year and 7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. The petrochemical sector is likely to be supported by higher spreads, while the transport sector, especially airlines, tends to weaken due to rising fuel costs stemming from the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the ICT and tourism sectors face risks of disappointment, as Bloomberg consensus estimates of strong net profit growth of 26 percent year-on-year for ICT and 15 percent year-on-year for tourism are unlikely to materialize amid a still-weak economy and a 4 percent year-on-year drop in foreign tourist arrivals. Tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices have caused Thailand to face twin deficits, with a trade deficit of 12.4 billion US dollars and a current account deficit of 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026. Elevated oil prices also increase the risk of government price intervention, which would pressure margins for downstream oil and gas businesses and could push inflation higher in the second half of 2026. While the Bank of Thailand views current inflation as likely temporary, the research team believes the central bank will not raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, 2026. Regarding the Senate election collusion case, the Election Commission expects to conclude the investigation by the end of August, but the timeline may be extended. The most likely scenario is that charges will be filed against only some individuals, which would negatively affect market sentiment, and the broader legal proceedings would take longer than before. The SET currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, but this drops to 14 times when excluding DELTA, which has a forward P/E of 83 times. CGSI maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points. Positive factors that could support the market include an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, while downside risks are the Election Commission filing charges against key politicians from coalition parties and a sharp slowdown in tourist arrivals.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, expects its second-half 2026 performance to recover after the second quarter of 2026, which is the low season. The company maintains its revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent. Key support comes from live hog prices rising to 74 baht and farm-gate chicken prices at 43 to 44 baht, up about 15 to 20 percent from the trough in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, feed costs are trending down due to the harvest season and the import of one million tonnes of corn from the United States under the WTO framework during the third and fourth quarters of 2026. In addition, the baht weakening to a range of 33 to 34 baht per dollar is boosting exports of both cooked and raw chicken, with total export volume this year expected at 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes. On the retail front, Thai Foods Fresh Market, or TFM, has raised its branch expansion target to 875 by the end of 2026, up from 850 previously. The company expects retail revenue to account for more than 50 percent of total revenue once the expansion is complete. TFG is also diversifying into new businesses, including coffee shops in front of TFM outlets and a rice mill, which will significantly reduce feed costs and boost margins.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.