Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Muangthai Capital, or MTC, expects a bright business trend in the second half of 2026, supported by government economic stimulus measures and the planting season, which is boosting demand for working capital in the farm sector. Chairman of the Executive Committee Paritat Phetampai said the company is maintaining its loan portfolio growth target of 10 to 15 percent this year and has yet to see signs of accelerating non-performing loans, because it has spent more than three years restructuring the portfolio to reduce the share of unsecured loans while developing staff to provide financial planning to customers for more than ten years. At the same time, the company successfully offered five tranches of debentures worth 10 billion baht, which were fully subscribed by investors. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debentures and support future loan portfolio expansion. MTC is also continuing to expand its branch network, opening 81 new branches in the first quarter to reach 8,754 branches, with plans to add about 300 to 400 more branches this year to meet rising credit demand and support long-term growth.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, reported profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, setting a new record high for the tenth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, its share price has continued to move more slowly than its peers or the broader market, reflecting significant remaining upside. Analysts view that the persistently strong operating performance has not yet been fully reflected in the share price, which could present an attractive opportunity for investors looking for stocks with solid fundamentals whose prices have yet to catch up.

Muangthai Capital, or MTC, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.91 billion baht, up 4.5% from the previous quarter and 15.7% from a year earlier, beating the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 1.83 billion baht. The result was supported by loan growth accelerating to 189 billion baht, up 2.5% from the prior quarter and 7.9% from a year earlier. Net interest margin recovered to 13.4% from 13.1% in the first quarter. First-half credit costs came in at 2.34%, below the full-year target of no more than 2.6%, creating a chance for full-year credit costs to come in below the guidance range and support second-half earnings. The company expects loan growth to accelerate in the second half on seasonal factors and some relaxation of approval criteria, targeting full-year loan growth of 8 to 10% from a year earlier while still emphasizing debtor quality. The latest NPL ratio stood at 2.61%, up slightly from 2.57% in the first quarter, but a coverage ratio of 142.6% remains a solid buffer against volatility. The average target price from IAA Consensus is 43.22 baht.

Listed leasing companies reported robust first-half 2026 results. MTC posted a net profit of 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent from the same period last year, while SAWAD recorded a net profit of 3.005 billion baht, up 22.40 percent. SAK reported a net profit of 454 million baht, up 3.4 percent, and TK posted a net profit of 63 million baht. MTC is targeting 10 percent loan portfolio growth in the second half, SAWAD expects to enter its high season, and SAK is confident its full-year loan portfolio will reach 15.5 to 16 billion baht, growing 8 to 10 percent.

Bualuang Securities released analysis on JMT, MINT, BAM, KCE and MTC following analyst meetings. JMT expects cash collections in the third quarter of 2026 to recover both year on year and quarter on quarter after seeing improvement since May, supported by collections from new debt purchased in the first quarter. The research team therefore recommends buying MINT, maintaining its profit growth target of 15 to 20 percent per year during 2026 to 2028 and net debt to equity of 0.75 to 0.85 times, while keeping plans for a food IPO and asset sales. BAM still targets 2026 net profit of 2 billion baht, up 10 percent year on year, but the research team sees the slow economic recovery pressuring that target and recommends sell. KCE expects third quarter 2026 revenue to grow 13 to 15 percent quarter on quarter with a gross margin of 25 percent, with a chance for 2027 profit to exceed 2 billion baht and the share price to break above 50 baht. MTC has cut this year's loan growth target to 8 to 10 percent year on year from 10 to 15 percent previously because of stricter lending after the Middle East conflict, but the research team still recommends buy and expects third quarter 2026 net profit to reach a new high.

Major vehicle title loan and microfinance groups SAWAD, TIDLOR, and MTC are all expanding their businesses to meet loan demand expected to rise during the high season in the second half of 2026. SAWAD said it will focus on growing its title loan portfolio under a selective growth strategy, alongside expanding its insurance brokerage business and accelerating digital platforms such as e-KYC, as well as building on mobile phone hire-purchase lending through its Locked Phone system to strengthen capabilities. TIDLOR reported second-quarter 2026 total revenue of 6.143 billion baht, up 6.7 percent, and net profit of 1.5332 billion baht, up 18.3 percent from the same period last year. That brought first-half net profit to 3.147 billion baht, up 26.2 percent, driven mainly by loan portfolio growth of 2.4 percent and strong expansion in the insurance brokerage business, while asset quality management helped lower the non-performing loan ratio to 1.54 percent. MTC said it is confident its loan portfolio will grow by about 10 percent and that it will keep NPLs within target. Second-quarter 2026 results showed a total loan portfolio of 188.699 billion baht, total revenue of 8.127 billion baht, up 7.70 percent, and net profit of 1.905 billion baht, up 15.66 percent from the same period last year. First-half net profit totaled 3.728 billion baht, up 15.84 percent.

Phillip Securities maintains a buy recommendation on MTC and SAWAD after second-quarter 2026 profits grew both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with 2027 target prices of 42 baht for MTC and 30 baht for SAWAD. MTC's profit continued to set new highs, driven by higher interest income as lending accelerated across all categories, even though non-performing loans also rose. SAWAD's profit reached a new high broadly in line with expectations, helped by lower funding costs, provisions, and expenses, with lending turning positive across all categories and non-performing loans held steady from the previous quarter. Phillip raised its 2026 profit forecast for MTC and trimmed it slightly for SAWAD, while shifting to 2027 base-case prices and still expecting continued solid results, though asset quality needs to be monitored.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Analysts at Yuanta Securities Thailand forecast that MTC will report a net profit of 1.879 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, up 14.1% from the same period last year and 3.1% from the previous quarter, marking a new quarterly record. The results are scheduled to be announced on August 11. The growth is driven by net interest income, which is expected to rise 2.2%, supported by a 2.6% acceleration in the total loan portfolio due to demand from upcountry customers at the start of the new planting season and government economic stimulus measures. Additionally, the net interest margin is expected to increase to 13.5% from 13.4% in the prior quarter, as financial costs decline following the issuance of new bonds with lower coupon rates. Non-interest income is projected to grow 2.2%, lifted by higher loan fees and insurance brokerage commissions in line with the expanding loan portfolio. Provisions are expected to rise by about 5.6%, even though the non-performing loan ratio remains stable compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a more cautious provisioning policy to buffer against future risks. The coverage ratio is expected to stay steady at 146.9%.

Analysts from leading securities firms forecast second-quarter 2025 earnings for three financial sector companies: SAWAD, TIDLOR, and MTC. Overall, net profit is expected to grow from the same period last year, supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher interest income. For SAWAD, FSS analysts project net profit of 1.43 billion baht, up 12.6 percent year-on-year, and recommend buying with a target price of 35 baht. Meanwhile, TNITY estimates net profit at 1.401 billion baht, up 10.34 percent year-on-year, and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 35 baht. For TIDLOR, YUANTA forecasts net profit of 1.455 billion baht, growing 12.2 percent year-on-year but declining 9.8 percent from the previous quarter, while keeping a buy recommendation with a new target price of 23 baht. KGI projects net profit of 1.4 billion baht, up 8 percent year-on-year, and upgrades its recommendation from sell to hold, raising the target price to 19.20 baht. For MTC, TNITY expects net profit of 1.883 billion baht, up 14.4 percent year-on-year, and recommends buying with a target price of 43 baht. FSS estimates net profit at 1.89 billion baht, up 14.7 percent year-on-year, and maintains a buy rating but lowers the target price to 40 baht.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that the inflation rate for July 2026 rose 1.95% from the same period last year, which was lower than the market forecast of 2.52% to 2.60% and slowed from June. This came after oil prices declined and the government controlled refinery-gate prices, while ready-to-eat food prices continued to rise. Core inflation stood at 1.34%, and the average for the first seven months of the year was 0.87%. The Ministry of Commerce maintained its full-year inflation target range of 1.5% to 2.5%, expecting inflation to continue increasing in August. The lower-than-expected inflation figure adds weight to the Bank of Thailand keeping its policy rate at 1.0% through the end of the year, which is positive for financial and power plant stocks, with MTC, GULF, and GPSC recommended.

Krungsri Securities expects the SET Index to fluctuate upward today within a support range of 1,610 to 1,607 points and resistance at 1,631 to 1,645 points. The risk-asset investment climate is positive after the US Treasury Secretary forecast the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two to three days, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield down 7 basis points to 4.61 percent and Brent crude oil prices down to 78 to 80 US dollars per barrel. Domestically, July 2023 inflation data is due today, with core inflation expected to remain within the Bank of Thailand's target range, supporting the use of low interest rates to drive the economy, especially data center investments that are becoming clearer and not affecting existing projects. Krungsri highlights three investment themes: anti-commodity stocks, conflict-resolution stocks, and thematic investment stocks, with top picks being GULF, GPSC, and MTC.

Asia Plus Securities expects the title loan group's net profit in the second quarter of 2026 at 4.8 billion baht, up 13.8% from the same period last year. It estimates that MTC will post the highest profit growth in the group at 14% year-on-year, followed by SAWAD and TIDLOR at 13.8% and 13.4% respectively. Asset quality is likely to weaken slightly but remains within manageable limits, with TIDLOR having the highest coverage ratio at around 328%, followed by MTC at around 145% and SAWAD at around 53%. The average share price of the title loan group has risen only 7% since the start of the year, still a laggard compared with the stock market's rise of around 29%. The research team continues to pick MTC because its share price is still a laggard relative to TIDLOR and has a chance to outperform if the market shifts to a risk-on mode.

Pi Securities says money is rotating into stocks that benefit from falling oil prices. Overnight, US equities rebounded as tensions between Iran and the US eased, pushing Brent crude down 4.7 percent. Tech stocks rallied, with Alphabet up 4.8 percent, Microsoft up 5 percent, Amazon up 4.6 percent, and Meta up 6 percent. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in better than expected, but the market focused more on strong earnings growth and the drop in oil prices easing inflation concerns. For the Thai market yesterday, the SET Index edged 0.1 percent lower, pressured by Delta Electronics falling 2.2 percent, while Anti-Oil plays like Home Product Center gained 4.6 percent and Central Plaza Hotel rose 3.9 percent, continuing to perform well. Pi Securities sees the SET trading in a range of 1,610 to 1,635 points today, with a strategy of accumulating stocks that benefit from lower oil prices. These include retail names like CP All, Central Pattana, CRC, ICHI, and Global; tourism plays like Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, and Minor International; power plant operators like B.Grimm Power, GPSC, and Gulf Energy; finance stocks like Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and Ngern Tid Lor; beverage names like ICHI and Carabao Group; and industrial estate plays like Amata Corporation and WHA Corporation. The broker recommends MEGA with a target price of 45 baht, citing a strong quarterly profit growth trend compared to last year, and Muangthai Capital with a target price of 39 baht, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to hit a new record high of around 1.9 billion baht.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, says the extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures into the fourth quarter of 2026 is a positive factor for the Thai stock market. Retail lenders such as MTC, KTC, and JMT will benefit, while ICHI is likely to gain from higher sales. KSS estimates MTC will post a net profit of 1.88 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 14 percent from a year earlier, and sees a chance for full-year 2026 profit to beat estimates if loan-loss provisions decline. It gives a 2026 target price of 40 baht. For ICHI, KSS expects a core profit of 306 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 7 percent from both a year earlier and the previous quarter, with a standout dividend yield. It forecasts a 2026 yield of about 6.8 percent and expects an interim dividend for the first half of 0.50 baht per share to be announced this August.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, has won the Best Social Bond – Thailand award at The Asset Triple A Awards for Sustainable Finance 2026, reflecting the success of its social bond issuance totaling 129 million Singapore dollars. This marks MTC's first Singapore dollar-denominated bond, the first SGD bond guaranteed by the Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility for a Thai listed company, and the first social bond offered to the public in Singapore by a non-bank financial institution from Thailand. Standard Chartered Bank acted as coordinator and lead arranger. Mr. Paritat Phetampai, Chairman of the Executive Board, stated that this award reinforces the confidence of global institutional investors, and the company will use the proceeds to support loans for retail customers, farmers, and those without access to formal funding sources, in order to reduce financial inequality and sustainably drive the grassroots economy.

Krungsri Securities expects the Thai stock market today to move in a sideways-up range, with resistance at 1,635 and 1,645 points and support at 1,613 and 1,608 points, after the war situation eased when President Trump announced the cancellation of a major attack plan. Meanwhile, OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day, causing Brent crude oil prices this morning to drop to 83 to 85 US dollars per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points. On the domestic front, the government is pushing ahead with full-scale economic stimulus plans, setting up five committees to drive GDP growth of 3 percent per year, targeting an increase in the investment ratio to 30 percent of GDP within four years. It highlights three investment themes: investment-themed stocks, anti-commodity stocks, and stocks benefiting from easing tensions, with top picks being GULF, GPSC, and MTC.

Yuanta Securities expects Muangthai Capital, or MTC, to post a net profit of 1.879 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 14.1 percent from a year earlier and 3.1 percent from the previous quarter, marking a new quarterly high. The gain is driven by net interest income, which is forecast to rise 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter after total loans accelerated 2.6 percent from the prior quarter, reflecting stronger credit demand from upcountry customers at the start of the new planting season and the positive impact of government measures, including higher allowances for state welfare cards and the half-and-half plus scheme in June 2026. The net interest margin is also expected to widen to 13.5 percent from 13.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026, helped by lower funding costs following a new bond issue with reduced coupon payments. Non-interest income is projected to grow 2.2 percent from the previous quarter, supported by higher loan fee income and insurance brokerage fees as the loan portfolio expands. However, provisions are likely to rise about 5.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, even though the non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain broadly stable from the first quarter of 2026, as the company adopts a more cautious provisioning policy to buffer against future risks. The coverage ratio is forecast to stay at 146.9 percent, close to the first quarter level. If these estimates hold, first-half 2026 net profit would account for 55 percent of the full-year forecast, suggesting the company is on track to outperform expectations after maintaining good asset quality, which eases provisioning pressure. In the second half of 2026, MTC's net profit is expected to accelerate both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, buoyed by the ongoing government stimulus from late in the second quarter, which should improve new loan disbursements and debt repayments. Yuanta has therefore raised its 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts by 11 percent and 8.7 percent respectively. Under the new estimates, MTC is projected to deliver a net profit of 7.48 billion baht in 2026, up 11.3 percent from the previous year, with a further 9.8 percent growth in 2027. Yuanta views MTC as an attractive play on title-loan lending, as its customer base consists largely of low-income borrowers with modest loan sizes, making it a significant beneficiary of government purchasing-power stimulus. This should be reflected in an accelerating earnings trend through the rest of the year. The current share price offers 31.4 percent upside to the 2027 target price of 45 baht, which is based on a sustainable return on equity of just 14 percent, below the two-year average return on equity forecast of 15.6 percent. Yuanta maintains a buy rating.

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, has signed a social loan agreement totalling 70 million US dollars with Bank of China Hong Kong Limited and Bank of China Thai Public Company Limited to support access to financial services, job creation, and sustainable food security. Executive Chairman Paritat Phetampai disclosed that the funding is aligned with the company's Social Bond Framework and that foreign exchange risk has already been managed. The proceeds will be used for three key objectives: promoting financial inclusion for low-income and vulnerable groups, supporting small businesses and women entrepreneurs, and strengthening the agricultural sector for food security. This support reflects the confidence of global financial institutions in MTC's potential and sustainability approach. The company currently holds a five-star CG rating, an AA SET ESG rating, and an A minus tha credit rating from Fitch Ratings.

MTC has signed a 70 million US dollar social loan facility with Bank of China Hong Kong Limited and Bank of China Thai Public Company Limited under the Social Bond Framework, to support equitable access to funding for micro-entrepreneurs and promote sustainable food security. Meanwhile, TEAMG is expanding into new markets by entering the data center and digital economy sectors through two subsidiaries, starting with the construction supervision and system testing of a world-class 86-megawatt data center on a 100-rai site in Chonburi province, and serving as a consultant to drive future investments, which is expected to become a new long-term revenue stream. At the same time, Globlex Securities expects the Thai stock market to move sideways down this week within a range of 1,600 to 1,650 points, pressured by surging crude oil prices after attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea, and recommends five fundamentally strong stocks: ADVANC, AOT, BH, GULF, and KBANK.

Kasikorn Securities notes that used car prices remain robust, supported by a 23% year-on-year decline in repossessed vehicles entering auction yards, averaging 13,400 units per month in the first half of 2026. This is below the historical average of around 18,000 units per month, leading to stable or slightly higher used car prices. Since mid-2025, prices have fallen only about 5%, compared with a normal depreciation rate of roughly 10% per year. The research team expects auto loan providers, including TISCO, KKP, TTB, BAY, MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR, and TURBO, to benefit from rising used car prices, and maintains a neutral view on the financial sector. Top picks are MTC with a target price of 39.0 baht, KTC with a target price of 49.0 baht, and TURBO with a target price of 2.2 baht.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities say the SET Index has risen over 31.2% from the start of the year to date, supported by foreign fund flows into electronics on the AI theme and better-than-expected domestic fundamentals. But at 1,650 points, the market is starting to face tight valuation constraints, especially for the large-cap stocks that have led the rally, where foreign ownership has exceeded the five-year average. They therefore expect a rotation of funds into laggard stocks where foreign ownership and valuations are below average, while earnings are still growing well. The short-term strategy recommends switching into laggard stocks via two themes. The first is Earnings Play, focusing on stocks with strong expected second-quarter 2026 earnings growth and a robust second half, such as ADVANC, CPN, GULF, PR9, SCGP, and TIDLOR. The second is Foreign Underowned Play, focusing on SET50 stocks where foreign ownership is below the five-year average and earnings momentum is good, such as BEM, CPALL, HMPRO, MTC, OR, TRUE, and TU.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited maintains a buy recommendation on Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited, or MTC, and raises its target price to THB 39.00 from THB 35.80, reflecting upward earnings revisions and a valuation base year roll-forward to mid-2027. It expects second-quarter 2026 normalized profit to reach a new record of THB 1.87 billion, up 2.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 13.6 percent year-on-year, driven by wider net interest margins and loan growth. The research team also lifts its 2026 to 2028 normalized profit forecasts by 6.9 percent, 6.7 percent, and 8.1 percent respectively, to THB 7.7 billion, THB 8.8 billion, and THB 9.8 billion. It views asset quality as not deteriorating as feared and loan demand as remaining strong. It picks MTC to return as the top pick in the financial sector, replacing TIDLOR, as its share price has recovered more slowly than peers and trades at just 1.4 times book value, below TIDLOR at 1.5 times, while both companies are expected to generate similar returns on equity of around 16.5 percent.

Dao Securities assesses that the Thai stock index is likely to swing sideways in a narrow range near the short-term target of 1,630 to 1,650 points, amid global investor caution toward technology stocks and the still-sensitive war situation. The Thai market is supported by fund flows and higher crude oil prices, but caution is needed against profit-taking as it approaches resistance levels. On the domestic front, discussions between the prime minister and President Xi Jinping have led to the acceleration of the Thailand-China railway project and expanded cooperation in technology and AI, which is expected to support industrial estate and technology stocks. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport is pushing ahead with a common ticket policy for electric trains at 17 to 45 baht and studying congestion charges to subsidize mass transit systems. Overseas, the US stock market recovered on semiconductor stocks, but investors are still watching earnings from major technology companies. The Middle East situation remains tense even though Iran has signaled openness to diplomatic talks. The Chinese stock market rebounded after a national fund stepped in to buy and support the market, and authorities prepared to meet with financial institutions to restore confidence. The investment strategy focuses on Selective Buy, benefiting from fund flows and China-Thailand cooperation. Oil stocks such as PTTEP, TOP, and SPRC continue to benefit from US-Iran tensions, while stocks expected to gain from the World AI Conference include ADVANC, TRUE, INSET, AMATA, WHA, GULF, GPSC, DELTA, HANA, and KCE. The recommended portfolio adds MTC and OR, comprising MTC, OR, WHA, GULF, TOP, HMPRO, TRUE, CRC, PTTEP, and PTT, each at a 10% weighting.

Kasikorn Securities assesses the SET Index today to move in a range of 1,630 to 1,660 points, supported by banking sector earnings that came in better than expected and signs of easing Middle East tensions following news that the US and Iran may revive a peace agreement. The market also gets a positive factor from the recovery of global technology stocks. This week, watch for earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet on Wednesday, and from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon in the following week. On the domestic front, several banks reported profits above expectations, adding upside to market earnings estimates or SET EPS. The short-term strategy recommends gradually accumulating stocks with outstanding profit growth. Today's highlighted stocks are MTC and KKP. MTC's second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to hit a new record high of 1.87 billion baht, up 2.6 percent from the previous quarter and 13.6 percent from a year earlier, with a target price of 39.00 baht. KKP reported second-quarter 2026 profit at a new record high of 2.12 billion baht, up 9 percent from the previous quarter and 51 percent from a year earlier, with a target price of 114.00 baht.

Krungsri Securities expects the SET Index to swing upward this week, with resistance at 1,652 and 1,665 points and support at 1,621 and 1,609 points. The Thai stock market is supported by gradually declining US Treasury yields and an ongoing investment cycle expansion. Investors will be watching second-quarter 2026 earnings from the commercial banking sector, where the market expects profits to drop around 5 to 10 percent from both the same period last year and the previous quarter. Investment strategy recommends stocks that benefit from falling bond yields, such as GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, WHAUP, MTC, SAWAD, KTC, and ADVANC, as well as stocks tied to investment themes like KBANK, KTB, STECON, PYLON, INSET, and AMATA. Top picks for the week are MTC with a target price of 40 baht, GULF with a target price of 74 baht, and BDMS with a target price of 27 baht.

Yuanta Securities Thailand says crude oil prices have started to soften after Iran signalled that diplomatic channels with the United States through intermediaries remain open, easing concerns over the Middle East conflict and providing a short-term positive sentiment boost for anti-commodity stocks. Stocks expected to benefit from this trend include TASCO, AOT, MINT, BA, MTC, BH, and BDMS.