Summary · why it matters
The Energy Policy Administration Committee, or EPAC, has issued a notice reducing the ex-refinery price for high-speed diesel, including B0, B7 and B20, by the same rate of 2.40 baht per litre, effective from 16 September to 31 October 2027, according to Asia Plus Securities. This announcement exercises powers under the Emergency Decree on the Prevention and Resolution of Fuel Shortages, B.E. 2516, to draw excess benefits from refining margins to lower costs at the refinery gate. It marks the seventh time the government has pulled profit margins from refinery operators to help ease the cost of living, and it extends the price intervention until the end of October 2027, from the previous round that was due to expire on 15 September 2027. The new round covers 46 days, split into 15 days affecting the third quarter of 2027 and 31 days in the fourth quarter of 2027. It is expected to affect the profits of refinery operators in proportion to their diesel production. PTTGC is estimated to be hit hardest at about 2.9 billion baht, BCP at about 2.19 billion baht, TOP at about 2.15 billion baht, IRPC at about 1.87 billion baht, and SPRC at about 994 million baht. Looking at the impact in the third quarter of 2027 alone, the pressure on refinery profits is heavier than in the second quarter of 2027. PTTGC is expected to take a total hit of about 5.0 billion baht, of which about 960 million baht comes from the latest measure. Next are BCP and TOP at about 3.7 billion baht and 3.6 billion baht respectively, with about 714 million and 608 million baht respectively from the latest round. IRPC is expected to take a total hit of about 3.2 billion baht, with 714 million baht from the latest round, while SPRC is expected to take a total hit of about 1.7 billion baht, with 324 million baht from the latest round. In the fourth quarter of 2027, between 1 and 31 October, PTTGC is expected to be affected by about 2.0 billion baht, BCP by about 1.48 billion baht, TOP by about 1.45 billion baht, IRPC by about 1.26 billion baht, and SPRC by about 670 million baht. This issue is seen as negative sentiment weighing on the refinery sector due to government intervention, along with high uncertainty over both the timeframe and the size of the refining margin cut, which could change in the period ahead. Meanwhile, the Singapore refining margin, which is referenced to TOP, has fallen to 16.9 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2027 to date, from 21.3 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2027. The research team recommends only seeking short-term trading opportunities based on fund flows into the energy sector, and to do so with caution.
Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
IRPC Public Company Limited
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited