Krungsri turns bullish on agriculture sector, top picks for El Niño theme: TVO, STA, NER

India's meteorological department has reported that an intensifying El Niño is putting India at risk of its driest monsoon season in 17 years, after cumulative rainfall from June to September came in 15% below the long-term average. That could weigh on agricultural output and further stoke food inflation, which climbed to 5.95% in August. The report said that if dry conditions persist, this year's monsoon will be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal, potentially affecting both the current harvest and the next planting cycle. Food costs rose for a seventh straight month in August. The meteorological office had forecast in May that rainfall this season would be 10% below normal. Christian Werner, managing director of the consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics in Australia, said weather conditions could favor cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal in the final week of September, which may help bring critically needed rain to eastern and northeastern India and ease drought conditions there. Adequate monsoon rainfall is crucial for the hundreds of millions of Indian farmers who rely on seasonal rains to grow their crops, with India among the world's largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton.

Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy, warns that erratic weather and the fallout from the Iran war could heighten food security risks in Asia and may lead to social unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. In a report published on 17 September, it said the Iran war has affected the supply of fuel and fertiliser, key inputs for the agricultural sector, while extreme weather from a strong El Niño is also hitting farm output in several Asian countries. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, is battling hard-to-control wildfires that are disrupting harvests, while India, the world's largest rice exporter, has seen monsoon rainfall 15% below normal. Thailand, meanwhile, is likely to see a sharp drop in sugar output and remains heavily dependent on energy and fertiliser imports, while facing pressure from farmers' debt burdens ahead of the next planting season. Data from Verisk Maplecroft's food security index shows that more than half of the countries at high or critical risk on food security are also in the two highest-risk groups on its civil unrest forecast index, including India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia. Protests have already broken out in the Philippines and Indonesia in recent weeks, and Verisk Maplecroft warns that if pressure from food prices and supplies intensifies and governments are seen as responding ineffectively, it could lead to unrest and political instability in these high-risk countries. In countries already facing conflict, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, a food shock could increase the risk of a humanitarian crisis.