Refinery stocks tumble as state cuts diesel price at refinery gate by 4 baht; broker says TOP still stands out

RegulationAnalystPrice Action
โดย Kaohoon·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Refinery stocks fell across the board after the Royal Gazette published a resolution by the Fuel Fund Management Committee to cut the diesel price at the refinery gate by 4.00 baht per litre for the period from 16 September to 31 October 2026. As of 11:29 a.m., Thai Oil, or TOP, stood at 61.75 baht, down 4.25 baht, or 6.44%; Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, stood at 53.50 baht, down 3.25 baht, or 5.73%; PTT Global Chemical, or PTTGC, stood at 47.75 baht, down 2.50 baht, or 4.98%; IRPC stood at 2.72 baht, down 0.24 baht, or 8.11%; and Star Petroleum Refining, or SPRC, stood at 13.10 baht, down 0.80 baht, or 5.76%. Krungsri Securities said the government's increased diesel price discount of 4.00 baht per litre is higher than the research house's previous assumption, which factored in an impact of 2.40 baht per litre through the end of 2026, putting earnings forecasts for refinery stocks TOP, SPRC and BCP at risk of a downside of about 3-4%, while 2027 target prices face downside risk of roughly 0.6-1.2%. If the government seeks a discount of 4 baht per litre continuing through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would face a downside of about 6% for TOP, about 8% for SPRC and about 7% for BCP, while target prices could be affected by about 1.4%, 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. However, Krungsri Securities remains bullish on the refinery group, picking TOP as its top pick on stronger long-term growth prospects and competitiveness than peers, especially after the Clean Fuel Project begins commercial operations in the third quarter of 2028. Meanwhile, Dao Securities Thailand said it holds a negative view on the refinery group, assessing the impact in descending order as BCP, TOP, PTTGC, IRPC and SPRC, and recommended avoiding investment in refinery stocks at this time. It recommends Hold on TOP with a target price of 70.00 baht, Hold on SPRC with a target price of 12.00 baht, and Buy on BCP with a target price of 50.00 baht. At the same time, it continues to pick PTTEP as its top pick in the energy group, with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 180.00 baht.

Impact on stocks 6

Energy▼ · 3 stocks
IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

The state's 4-baht refinery-gate diesel price cut hits IRPC's refining earnings, with Dao Securities ranking it among the negatively affected refiners.

Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

SPRC faces the largest earnings downside (~8%) from the 4-baht refinery-gate diesel price cut, per Krungsri Securities.

Energy Transition & Power Demand▼ · 2 stocks
Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited
BCP
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Government Fuel Fund resolution cutting diesel price at refinery gate by 4 baht/litre pressures BCP's refining margins, with Dao Securities flagging it as most affected.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
± MixedCapitalRegulationrelevance

Krungsri Securities remains bullish and picks TOP as its top pick on stronger long-term growth and competitiveness, especially after the Clean Fuel Project starts commercial operations in Q3 2028.

Materials▼ · 1 stocks
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