Thailand raises diesel refinery-gate discount to 4 baht, squeezing BCP, TOP and SPRC margins

RegulationAnalystCommodity
โดย HoonVision·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

The Energy Policy Administration Committee resolved to revoke its September 9, 2026 announcement that cut the refinery-gate diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre, and to raise that discount for diesel to 4.00 baht per litre from September 16, 2026 to October 31, 2026. As a result, Dao Securities holds a negative view on the refinery group given heightened policy risk, believing the impact on earnings and cash flow, from largest to smallest, falls on BCP, TOP, PTTGC, IRPC and SPRC. It maintained an equal-weight stance on the energy sector and advised avoiding refinery stocks for now, with a hold rating on TOP and a target of 70.00 baht, a hold on SPRC with a target of 12.00 baht, and a buy on BCP with a target of 50.00 baht. It also continues to favour PTTEP with a buy rating and a target of 180.00 baht, on the back of average selling prices for oil trending higher again in the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities views the refinery group as slightly negative after the government sought a larger-than-expected diesel price discount from refineries. If the government keeps requesting a 4 baht per litre diesel discount through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would see downside of about 6% for TOP, 8% for SPRC and 7% for BCP, while target prices would be affected by about 1.4% for TOP, 2.2% for SPRC and 2.8% for BCP respectively. It nonetheless remains bullish on the refinery group on expectations of tight supply, picking TOP as its top pick, and expects the CFP project to begin commercial operation in the third quarter of 2028 as a factor supporting long-term growth potential.

Impact on stocks 6

Energy± Mixed · 3 stocks
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

The 4-baht diesel discount hits SPRC hardest per Krungsri, with ~8% earnings downside and ~2.2% target-price impact.

IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Dao Securities lists IRPC among refiners hit by the government's increased diesel discount, pressuring earnings and cash flow.

Energy Transition & Power Demand▼ · 2 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Thailand's Energy Policy Administration Committee raised the refinery-gate diesel discount to 4 baht/litre, squeezing Thai Oil's (TOP) refinery margins with estimated ~6% earnings downside.

Materials▼ · 1 stocks
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