TTB Wealth maintains Overweight on retail sector, says earnings have bottomed out

Analyst
โดย thunhoon.com·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

Impact on stocks 11

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 7 stocks
Dohome Public Company Limited
DOHOME
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

TTB Wealth expects DOHOME to show strongest recovery with 37% EPS growth in Q2 2026, driven by better margins and narrowing same-store sales decline.

Com7 PCL
COM7
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

TTB Wealth expects COM7 earnings to grow 30% in Q2 2026, driven by market share gains and margin expansion.

Consumer Staples▲ · 2 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
CP ALL Public Company Limited
CPALL
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

TTB Wealth forecasts CPALL earnings growth of 7% in Q2 2026, supported by successful business strategies and market share gains.

Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
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