Yuanta keeps Overweight on retail stocks, picks BJC as Top Pick

Analyst
โดย HoonVision·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects that in July and August 2026, the SSSG of retail stocks under its coverage will come in at around -1% to +1% year on year, flat to improved compared with an average of -0.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, and better than -3.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. For the consumer staples group, comprising CPALL, CPAXT, BJC and CRC, average SSSG is expected at -0.5% year on year, an improvement from -1.0% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 and -1.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, led by BJC, whose SSSG in August 2026 turned positive for the first time in 2026. CPALL is expected at +1% to +3% year on year and CRC at +1% to +3% year on year, while CPAXT remains weak, with Makro expected to contract 1% to 2% year on year and Lotus expected to contract 3% to 5% year on year. For the home improvement group, comprising GLOBAL, DOHOME and HMPRO, average SSSG is expected at -0.8% year on year, flat from -0.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 but better than -5.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. DOHOME improved to +5% to +7% year on year on a low base, while GLOBAL and HMPRO remain weak at -5% to -7% year on year and -1% to -3% year on year respectively. The research team expects the retail group's normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to fall quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, but still grow year on year, supported by revenue growth in line with SSSG trends and planned branch expansion, with gross margins expected to improve year on year on still-high product prices. The year-to-date return of SETCOMMERCE stands at +11%, a significant laggard versus the SET Index at +29%, and retail stocks trade at an average 2026 PER of only 15.1 times, close to -1.4 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. The research team therefore maintains its Overweight investment weighting and picks BJC as Top Pick with a target price of 18.00 baht, and is in the process of reviewing upward its earnings forecasts and target price, expected at around plus or minus 19 baht, on the strong SSSG recovery in August 2026, with the stock trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.7 times, below -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. It also picks CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht on the continued SSSG recovery trend and still-cheap valuation, trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.5 times, equivalent to -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average.

Impact on stocks 7

Consumer Discretionary± Mixed · 4 stocks
Consumer Staples± Mixed · 2 stocks
Berli Jucker PCL
BJC
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

BJC's SSSG turned positive in August 2026 for the first time in 2026, leading the consumer staples group's improvement, and is named Yuanta's Top Pick.

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