Affirm Holdings Inc

Affirm Holdings is launching a new transformer-based machine learning model for real-time credit underwriting at U.S. checkouts, drawing on 14 years of its own transaction and repayment data to analyze the order and timing of events across a consumer's credit history. In initial testing, the model approved applications the previous system would have declined, including consumers with limited credit histories and no FICO scores, and those incremental approvals produced 3.4% more completed purchases than the control group, with the loans performing better than a comparable expansion under the previous model. Affirm says the model is built to deliver fast and explainable decisions, and the release does not provide a dollar estimate of the financial impact. The company frames the launch as expanding approvals without simply lowering credit standards, with the financial benefit depending on how the early results scale. Affirm shares have risen 58.2% over the past six months compared with the industry's 20.2% growth, and the stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.1X versus the industry average of 4.2X.

Stripe introduced its Shared Payment Token in October 2025 as a programmable, revocable primitive designed to standardize how AI agents interact with financial rails. The token prevents exposure of underlying credentials during agent-initiated transactions by mapping to the latest Funding Primary Account Number while adding agent-specific metadata such as merchant scoping, time-bound constraints, and transaction caps, with Stripe Radar providing real-time fraud and risk signaling. Stripe is currently the only provider supporting both agentic network tokens and BNPL tokens within a single primitive, a consolidation that matters given BNPL accounts for over $300 billion in global volume and businesses on Stripe report up to a 14% revenue increase on BNPL-eligible sessions. As of March 3, 2026, the platform supports Mastercard Agent Pay, Visa Intelligent Commerce, and BNPL providers including Affirm and Klarna, meaning merchants already integrated with Stripe need no additional development work to support agentic transactions. Adoption remains far behind the infrastructure: only 14% of consumers express trust in AI to execute purchases, dropping significantly for transactions exceeding $50, while just 3% of total transactions involve agents even as 42% of merchants report testing the technology. Stripe is also co-developing the open-source Agentic Commerce Protocol with OpenAI and has made a $7.5 billion acquisition of OpenRouter, signaling an intent to control the routing and execution environment where agents operate.

Affirm Holdings reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings of $4.62 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents by 1,300% and rising from 20 cents a year ago. Revenues of $1.17 billion grew 33% year over year and surpassed the consensus mark of $1.11 billion. The results were driven by robust Gross Merchandise Volume growth, higher transactions, strong repeat customer engagement, and increased interest income, with rapid growth in Affirm Card adoption and merchant activity also supporting performance. However, elevated operating expenses and higher provision for credit losses partly offset gains, while the bottom line benefited from a $1.45 billion income tax benefit related to the release of a valuation allowance on domestic deferred tax assets. As of June 30, 2026, active merchants totaled 570,800, up 50% year over year, and GMV increased 36% to $14.1 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $13.4 billion. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Affirm expects GMV of $13.7-$14.0 billion and revenues of $1.19-$1.22 billion, and for fiscal 2027, it expects GMV of more than $64 billion.

Affirm Holdings reported its most profitable quarter ever in fiscal Q4 2026, even without a tax allowance release, and announced the promotions of Pat Suh to SVP and GM of Global Markets and Michael Linford to President. CEO Max Levchin said the core business is thriving and that he will focus on developing next-generation products and services. The company highlighted strong growth in Pay-in-X, with a 41% increase, and noted that its Affirm Card transactions are 30% offline. Management expressed confidence in the U.K. market and discussed ongoing initiatives such as Affirm Edge and the Affirm Money Account. CFO Rob O'Hare provided guidance for fiscal 2027, expecting a GAAP tax rate in the mid- to high 20% range and consistent revenue less transaction costs.

Affirm Holdings posted a fiscal fourth quarter that beat Wall Street expectations, with revenue rising 33% to $1.17 billion and gross merchandise volume up 36% to $14.1 billion, but CEO Max Levchin cautioned that higher gas prices are squeezing the consumers driving that growth. Active consumers grew 21% to 27.8 million, and the Affirm Card's active users more than doubled to 5.2 million. Credit quality improved, with the 30-day delinquency rate falling to 2.5%. The company also extended its Shopify partnership into Australia. Despite the strong results, the stock barely moved, and analysts remain split, with Morgan Stanley keeping a neutral rating while Susquehanna raised its price target to $110.

Affirm Holdings is expanding its buy now, pay later reach by launching Shop Pay Installments in Australia through its partnership with Shopify, and has promoted Michael Linford to President. The Australian rollout broadens access to installment options for Shopify merchants and shoppers in a competitive market. Linford's new role adds senior leadership responsibilities alongside his existing duties, concentrating oversight of global markets, risk, finance, and legal. This combination of international product expansion and an adjusted executive structure signals a fresh phase of growth planning for Affirm, with investors watching international gross merchandise volume and credit outcomes as Australia ramps up.

Shopify reported quarterly revenue growth of 33.7% year on year, beating analyst expectations on revenue, billings, and gross merchandise volume, while highlighting a net cash position of US$4.77 billion. The company also deepened its tie-up with Affirm, launching Shop Pay Installments in Australia, which underscores how its AI tools and financial services are becoming more embedded in merchant checkout and financing options globally. The stronger-than-expected results and expanded partnership may influence Shopify's investment narrative around AI-powered commerce, though competitive pressure and regulatory scrutiny on data use remain key risks. The company's premium valuation could compress if growth slows, but the Affirm partnership could support higher payment penetration and stickiness. Shopify's narrative projects $25.8 billion revenue and $3.9 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 24.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.0 billion earnings increase from $1.9 billion today, yielding a fair value of $160.59, a 4% upside to its current price.

Affirm's stock is gaining after the company topped fiscal fourth quarter earnings expectations, with COO Michael Linford, who was named the company's next president, saying the business is "firing on all cylinders." The company posted its 11th consecutive quarter of over 30% GNV growth, with revenue less transaction costs growing 39% year over year and exceeding its percentage of GNV target. Linford highlighted strong unit economics and operating leverage, with GAAP operating income up over 6 percentage points and adjusted margins above 30%. He expressed optimism about the consumer, citing stable credit trends and employment, and noted the company's expansion with Shopify in Australia and the UK, while acknowledging that international markets will take time to become meaningful. Regarding the abandoned $50 billion PayPal acquisition by Advent and Stripe, Linford declined to comment, saying Affirm is focused on its own opportunities.

Buy now, pay later stocks rallied Friday after Bloomberg reported that Stripe and Advent International abandoned a takeover of PayPal Holdings valued at more than $50 billion, with Klarna up 6% to $14.86, Affirm up 10% to $85.01, and Sezzle up 2% to $128.46, while PayPal fell 11% to $54.40 as the takeover premium unwound. Affirm's surge followed its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, which CEO Max Levchin called "our most profitable quarter ever, even without the tax allowance release," and the company also promoted Michael Linford to president and launched Shop Pay Installments in Australia exclusively through Affirm. Klarna and Sezzle had no company-specific catalysts, with their gains driven by read-across relief from the removal of a potential giant rival. The ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF was down 0.1% to $47, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust rose 0.1% to $772.16, indicating a name-level event rather than a sector move. Investors should watch for confirmation of Affirm's profitability inflection and the Shop Pay Australia distribution deal in fiscal Q1 2027 volume metrics, while PayPal's next test is whether branded-checkout stabilization can support the stock without a takeover backstop.

PayPal shares plunged nearly 16% premarket after Bloomberg reported that buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe decided not to pursue a takeover, which would have been one of the largest leveraged buyouts. Meanwhile, Affirm jumped 13% after reporting $1.17 billion in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, beating the LSEG estimate of $1.11 billion, and issued first-quarter revenue guidance above estimates. Gap popped nearly 15% after announcing Michael Francis will become CEO of Old Navy starting Nov. 2, succeeding Haio Barbeito, and reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share, topping the 48-cent consensus. Elastic N.V. surged over 17% after its full-year guidance exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS forecast between $3.29 and $3.37 versus the $3.24 estimate. Marvell Technology dropped nearly 8% despite guiding current-quarter adjusted earnings to $1.10 per share plus or minus 5 cents, above the $1.07 estimate, but its gross margin guidance of 57.5% to 58.5% came in below the StreetAccount consensus of 58.5%. Rubrik fell over 5% after its non-GAAP gross margin of 81% missed the 81.7% estimate, despite beating on earnings and revenue. Autodesk declined nearly 4% after its third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.04 to $3.09 fell short of the $3.14 consensus.

Stock futures were mixed Friday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote speech at Jackson Hole, with energy market pressures and U.S.-Iran uncertainty capping risk appetite. Elastic shares jumped 21% after the software firm beat FQ1 estimates, guiding Q2 revenue to $486M-$487M and raising its FY2027 outlook to $1.998B-$2.010B with adjusted EPS of $3.29-$3.37. Affirm Holdings rose 9% on strong FQ4 results and an upbeat FY2027 forecast, including GMV above $64B and adjusted operating margin over 30.5%. PayPal tumbled 13% after a consortium of Advent and Stripe abandoned its pursuit, which had offered more than $50B for the fintech. Rubrik fell 8% despite beating Q2 estimates and raising guidance, while Marvell Technology dropped 8% even after topping Q2 expectations with record revenue of $2.739B and strong AI-driven outlook.

Affirm, the buy now, pay later company, delivered strong fiscal second-quarter results, beating Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations, and its stock rose 7.3% to $84.31 in after-hours trading. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.17 billion, up 33% year over year and 5.2% above analyst estimates of $1.11 billion. GAAP earnings per share were $4.62, significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.35. The company also guided for third-quarter revenue of $1.21 billion at the midpoint, which is 3.6% above what analysts were expecting. Affirm's pre-tax profit for the quarter was $169.1 million, representing a 14.5% margin.

Affirm Holdings shares jumped 8.5% in after-hours trading Thursday after the buy now, pay later lender reported fiscal Q4 earnings that included a nearly $1.5 billion tax benefit and issued strong guidance for fiscal 2027 and Q1. The company posted GAAP EPS of $4.77, up from $0.30 in the prior quarter, and total net revenue of $1.17 billion, beating the $1.11 billion consensus. Gross merchandise volume climbed to $14.1 billion, exceeding the $13.4 billion Visible Alpha consensus, and active consumers rose 20% year over year to 27.8 million. Affirm also named Michael Linford, previously chief operating officer, as co-president, while Libor Michalek continues as president. For fiscal 2027, the company expects GMV of more than $64 billion, compared with $50.2 billion in fiscal 2026, and an adjusted operating margin above 30.5%.

Affirm Holdings Inc. is entering its earnings report with its Affirm Card business showing explosive growth, reaching $2.13 billion in volume for recent quarters, up 146% year over year, with active card users rising to 4.4 million and card penetration hitting 17% of Affirm's active client base. The company is moving into everyday spending through partnerships with Google Pay, Apple Pay and Stripe, with wallet volume of $1.7 billion over the trailing 12 months and transactions per user growing 50% to 6.7 yearly. Affirm reported GAAP operating profitability for the first time as a public company in its most recent quarter, and investors now want to see if faster card usage can translate into sustainable profitability growth without hurting credit performance. Wall Street forecasts quarterly EPS of around $0.35, management has guided transaction volume of around $13.15 billion to $13.45 billion, and Oppenheimer recently lifted its price target to $100 from $87, suggesting Affirm might post results at or above the high end of projections.

Affirm Holdings reclaimed investor confidence in the second quarter, driven by a 146% year-over-year surge in Affirm Card gross merchandise volume to $2.13 billion and a 130% increase in active cardholders to 4.4 million. Spyglass Capital Management highlighted the fintech company as a top contributor in its Q2 2026 investor letter, noting that quarterly results exceeded revenue and earnings expectations. The stock's sentiment recovered following a US-Iran ceasefire and a more stable macroeconomic outlook, after a difficult start to the year tied to geopolitical risks and consumer weakness fears. Affirm's management also outlined a positive growth outlook and profitability framework at its May investor forum. The shares closed at $73.25 on July 30, 2026, with a market capitalization of $24.53 billion.

The global Buy Now Pay Later market is projected to grow from $10.22 billion in 2025 to $116.94 billion by 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 27.60%. Online channels held a 66.50% share in 2025, while point-of-sale in-store BNPL is the fastest-growing segment at a 25.50% CAGR. Large enterprises accounted for more than 61% of the market in 2025, and the retail and consumer goods end-use segment dominated with over 71% share. North America represented more than 29.30% of global revenues in 2025, with the United States contributing approximately 84.73% of that regional total. Key players include Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, PayPal, and Sezzle.

Affirm CEO and PayPal co-founder Max Levchin said his company maintains a very high bar for mergers and acquisitions, even as PayPal reportedly attracts a takeover offer exceeding $53 billion from Stripe and Advent International. Speaking on Yahoo Finance's Power Players podcast, Levchin noted that while Affirm is a large public company that does evaluate deals, it is hard to justify the dilution or cash expense when organic growth is strong. He added that M&A generally has a low probability of success, so the threshold to dilute shareholders is extremely high. The comments come as Stripe, valued at $180 billion, reportedly bid $60.50 per share for PayPal, a premium to recent trading but far below PayPal's 2021 record near $300.

Jim Cramer told investors that Affirm Holdings is going straight to $100, calling CEO Max Levchin the smartest guy on Earth and praising the company's latest quarter. Cramer noted the stock had been roaring, up about 30% from its early April lows but still down 13% for the year, and described the post-earnings dip as a great opportunity. He highlighted that Affirm is now a very profitable business with a much more powerful network.

Affirm Holdings has partnered with Bed Bath & Beyond to offer its buy now, pay later solution across the retailer's brands, including Bed Bath & Beyond, Overstock and buybuy BABY. Eligible shoppers can pay in biweekly or monthly installments with no late or hidden fees. The agreement expands Affirm's presence in the home retail market, where purchases often involve higher ticket sizes. As of March 31, 2026, Affirm's active merchants were around 515,000, up 43.8% year over year, and gross merchandise volume grew 35% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

Piper Sandler double upgraded Block to Overweight from Underweight and initiated coverage of PayPal with a Neutral rating. Block's price target was raised to $100 from $58, while PayPal's was lowered to $42 from $46. The firm also rated Affirm, American Express, Capital One Financial, Mastercard, and Visa as Overweight with respective price targets of $103, $396, $254, $597, and $394. Analyst Bill Carcache cited company-specific drivers for constructive cases, noting PayPal's low valuation is balanced by unresolved take-rate and transaction margin pressure.

Wall Street saw a flurry of analyst rating changes on Tuesday. Piper Sandler upgraded Block to Overweight from Underweight with a $100 price target, while Oppenheimer downgraded Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to Underperform from Perform, citing unappealing valuations despite raised estimates. Among other notable moves, Goldman Sachs upgraded Tradeweb Markets to Buy from Neutral with a $146 target, and BofA downgraded Logitech to Underperform from Neutral with an $86 target. New coverage initiations included Piper Sandler launching on Visa, MasterCard, Capital One, Affirm, and American Express with Overweight ratings.

Intuit shares jumped 5% to $267.72 in the last trading session on higher-than-average volume. The company recently reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with revenue rising 10% year over year, driven by higher adoption of QuickBooks Online, payments, payroll, and assisted tax offerings. Management also raised its full-year revenue and earnings guidance. The Global Business Solutions segment saw revenue increase 15% year over year, with QuickBooks Online accounting revenue climbing 22% and Online Ecosystem revenue growing 19%. Intuit is expanding its AI-driven expert platform and has formed strategic partnerships, including a multi-year agreement with Affirm and joining the Federal Reserve's FedNow Service.

Wells Fargo analyst Jason Kupferberg maintained a Buy rating on Affirm Holdings with a price target of $89. Earlier, on June 4, William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares without disclosing a price target. Analyst Andrew Jeffrey described Affirm as one of William Blair's top digital finance ideas, citing strong conviction in the company's long-term growth story. The firm noted that Affirm is growing its share in the buy now and pay later market, which remains in the early development stage, and sees Affirm on track to establish clear leadership within the massive US card payments market estimated at roughly $9 trillion. William Blair believes this dominance will result in improved profitability and strong returns on invested capital.

Affirm has partnered with Backcountry to offer its pay-over-time option across Backcountry and its affiliated online brands, including Competitive Cyclist, MotoSport, Steep & Cheap, and Level Nine Sports. The agreement extends Affirm's presence into the outdoor recreation category, where high-ticket gear purchases make transparent installment payments relevant for shoppers and merchants. The deal adds another vertical to Affirm's merchant network, though it is unlikely to shift near-term focus on funding costs, credit performance, and the risk of losing a large enterprise merchant partner. Affirm recently expanded a US$2.2 billion forward flow agreement with CPP Investments, underpinning roughly US$8 billion of loan volume, which can support higher transaction volumes from new partnerships like Backcountry.

The 20 consumer finance stocks tracked by StockStory reported a satisfactory first quarter, with revenues beating analysts' consensus estimates by 1.9% and next quarter's revenue guidance coming in 0.7% above expectations. Credit Acceptance posted revenues of $406 million, up 1.4% year on year but missing estimates by 13.1%, while Sallie Mae delivered the best performance with revenues of $560 million, down 3.6% year on year but beating estimates by 3.9%. Nelnet was the weakest, with revenues of $353.2 million, down 7.1% year on year and missing estimates by 20.4%. Ally Financial reported revenues of $2.18 billion, up 5.5% year on year and beating estimates by 1.8%, and Affirm posted revenues of $1.04 billion, up 32.6% year on year and beating estimates by 4.3%. Share prices of the group have been resilient, rising 7.2% on average since the latest earnings results.