In a quantum race where no one yet knows which kind of qubit will win, one line is out front — qubits made from superconducting electrical circuits, chilled to ~15 millikelvin (colder than deep space) and driven by microwave pulses. It's the path IBM and Google chose to bet on, because it has the "fastest gates" and can be made on a chip production line. This lesson digs into how it works, why it's ahead, and what price it pays.
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IBM Wins $1 Billion Commerce Award as Anderon Quantum Foundry Begins Production
IBM secured a finalized $1 billion award from the Commerce Department for its Anderon subsidiary, which is now operating a 300-millimeter quantum-wafer foundry in Albany, New York. IBM is committing another $1 billion of its own capital to the project, bringing newly disclosed commitments to $2 billion, with the federal government covering half of that total. Initial wafers have already entered production at the facility, which is designed to manufacture technology for superconducting qubits, input-output signaling and readout components, with additional quantum architectures expected to follow. The funding split reduces how much IBM must fund itself while potentially turning Anderon into manufacturing infrastructure for outside quantum-chip designers. IBM shares gained approximately 0.2% to $237.87 Thursday morning, about 2% below the $242.72 GF Value estimate, though IBM has not yet disclosed customers, purchase commitments, wafer volumes or expected Anderon revenue.
IBM's Anderon Finalizes $1 Billion CHIPS Act Quantum Foundry Award
Anderon, an IBM subsidiary, finalized a $1 billion research-and-development award from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act. The funding will support Anderon's efforts to advance quantum wafer manufacturing at its facility in Albany, New York, where a 300-millimeter quantum wafer foundry serves customers across the quantum industry. IBM has put up $1 billion of its own money alongside the federal award, and production is underway with quantum wafers already in process. The Anderon award is part of a broader $2 billion package distributed across nine quantum computing companies under the CHIPS and Science Act, with GlobalFoundries in line for $375 million and D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Infleqtion each expected to receive $100 million; each of the nine firms will give the federal government a minority ownership stake in exchange for the funding. The finalization follows a letter of intent between IBM and the Commerce Department announced in May, and last week Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantinuum each finalized $100 million deals with the department. IBM stock fell 3.3% on Wednesday and has declined nearly 19% this year.
Mitsubishi Electric Launches Two Quantum Computing R&D Projects Selected by NEDO
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation announced that two of its research and development projects have been selected through a public solicitation by Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, or NEDO, for support under an initiative to advance quantum computing and other information technology in the post-5G era. The NEDO project is officially known as the Research and Development Project to Strengthen Post-5G Information and Communication System Infrastructure, Accelerating the Development and Demonstration of Next-Generation Quantum Computers to Solve Societal Issues. Following the selection, Mitsubishi Electric will launch its two projects aimed at scaling up quantum computers: Research and Development of Multi-Qubit-Control Laser Systems, and Development of Ultra-Compact, Multi-Channel, Low-Noise Amplifier Modules for Large-Scale Superconducting Quantum Computers. The company said quantum computers are expected to revolutionize computing infrastructure by enabling larger-scale simulations and optimization than conventional computers in fields including medicine and drug discovery, finance, logistics and energy. Because qubits are fragile and highly susceptible to noise, technologies that combine multiple qubits are needed to correct errors, making scaling to the level of one million qubits a key challenge.
Rigetti Q2 Revenue Rises to $5.1 Million as Costs and Losses Widen
Rigetti Computing reported second-quarter 2026 revenues of $5.1 million, up from $1.8 million a year earlier, driven mainly by sales of its 9-qubit Novera systems and related products. Customer concentration remains elevated, with one client contributing 64% of quarterly revenues and another accounting for 16%, while the company's $8.4 million C-DAC quantum system for India is expected to be recognized only after installation and acceptance testing in the fourth quarter of 2026. Operating expenses jumped 48% year over year to $30.3 million, including a 53% increase in research and development spending to $20.7 million, producing an operating loss of $28.1 million. Rigetti holds $541.3 million in liquidity, but management expects R&D investments and capital expenditures to remain elevated as it expands cryogenic infrastructure and fabrication capacity. Among peers, IonQ signed an $8.18 million commercial agreement with Congruity360 and launched its sixth-generation Superion 256 platform, while D-Wave Quantum finalized a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding.
IonQ CEO Predicts Q-Day by 2028 as Shares Fall 5.78%
IonQ chief executive Niccolo de Masi used the company's investor day to predict that Q-Day, the point at which today's encryption falls, will arrive in 2028, but the market response was muted as shares fell 5.78% to $38.13 and are now down 15.02% year to date. The company reported Q2 revenue of $80.05 million, up 286.8% year over year, yet GAAP operating expenses ran to $417.3 million, adjusted EBITDA was negative $120.3 million, and stock-based compensation alone was $141.8 million, undercutting de Masi's claim that IonQ's systems do not become a lot more expensive as they grow more powerful. IonQ closed its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater, raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $280 million to $290 million, and grew remaining performance obligations 297% year over year, with cash of $1.24 billion at quarter end, though management declined to provide combined-company guidance. The 256-qubit system is scheduled to begin commissioning in the first half of 2027, and roughly 50% of Q2 revenue was international while 60% was commercial. Among peers, Rigetti Computing reported Q2 revenue of just $5.14 million and is down 31.2% year to date, while D-Wave Quantum posted $3.08 million in revenue and is down 34.53% year to date, against NVIDIA's $96.22 billion in Q2 revenue, up 105.8% year over year. Analysts carry an average price target of $67.68 on IonQ, which trades at a price-to-sales of roughly 65.
IBM and Lockheed Martin Launch Swiss Quantum Hub at ETH Zurich
IBM and Lockheed Martin, through an offset agreement with armasuisse, Switzerland's Federal Office for Defence Procurement, established a hub for quantum innovation at ETH Zurich that will host the country's first IBM Quantum System Two at the Swiss National Supercomputing Center in Lugano. IBM will operate the system, which will be powered by an IBM Quantum Nighthawk, the company's most advanced processor, with deployment expected by the end of 2026. ETH Zurich will provide expertise, resources and technologies for Swiss industries, startups and academia, including access to the quantum computer, and organizations joining the hub will also have immediate access to IBM's fleet of quantum computers available over the cloud. The collaboration includes two planned joint development projects between IBM and Lockheed Martin, exploring quantum sensing applications for navigation and the improvement of additive manufacturing of metallic alloys. The initiative builds on a long-standing IBM and ETH Zurich relationship that includes a recently launched 10-year effort to advance foundational algorithmic research, and it extends the strategic collaboration between Lockheed Martin and IBM in quantum and AI.
Quantum Stocks Rally on $100 Million Government Funding
Quantum computing stocks rallied Tuesday after three companies secured $100 million each in U.S. government funding, while IonQ raised its 2026 revenue forecast. D-Wave, Rigetti, and Quantinuum each received $100 million from the U.S. Department of Commerce through the CHIPS and Science Act, with the government taking minority equity positions. The funding is earmarked for research and development, not immediate sales, helping recipients tackle technical challenges as they scale quantum systems. IonQ separately lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to $450 million to $460 million from $280 million to $290 million, and introduced its Superion 256 platform with customer deliveries planned for 2027. In trading, D-Wave Quantum gained 6%, Rigetti Computing rose 4%, Quantum Computing added 2.6%, and IonQ climbed 2% even as the broader market fell.
NEC Halts Development of Quantum Computer Hardware
NEC has decided to halt the development of actual quantum computer hardware, which processes vast amounts of calculations at high speed, by the end of March. The company achieved the world's first superconducting qubit in 1999, establishing itself as a pioneer in the superconducting approach later adopted by Google and IBM. However, due to many challenges such as the lack of a dominant technology for practical use, continuing hardware development was deemed not cost-effective. NEC will continue its research and development leveraging quantum mechanics. In Japan, Fujitsu is currently leading research, and in 2025, it developed one of the world's largest quantum computers in collaboration with RIKEN.
Quantum stocks surge after Q2 results show significant improvement
Quantum computing stocks surged on Friday after second-quarter earnings reports showed significant revenue gains across the sector. D-Wave climbed 7% after BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $35 price target, citing an addressable market opportunity of $450 billion to $850 billion. Rigetti jumped 9% as system and component sales reached $4.1 million, up from zero a year earlier, while Quantum Computing leaped 8% after revenue rose to $5.6 million from $65,000. IQM Quantum Computers popped 7% after second-quarter revenue increased 27% year over year to $7.8 million and it guided full-year revenue of $49 million to $55 million, and Infleqtion surged 9% on a 112% year-over-year revenue jump. IonQ increased 7.5% after announcing a partnership with the Canadian Microelectronics Corporation to expand quantum computing access to Canada-based researchers and businesses.
Rigetti Computing Reports Q2 2026 Revenue Surge and $100 Million R&D Support
Rigetti Computing reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of US$5.14 million, up from US$1.80 million a year earlier, while its net loss widened to US$52.61 million from US$39.65 million. The company also announced a letter of intent for up to US$100.00 million in U.S. Department of Commerce quantum R&D support. The results highlight Rigetti's growing role in quantum infrastructure for research, AI, and high-performance computing, including new commercial system deliveries with partners such as Nvidia and HPE. The federal R&D support strengthens the short-term catalyst around government-backed scaling but also sharpens the risk of dependence on public funding and rising losses.
Quantum Computing Stocks Show Strong Analyst Upside in August
Wall Street analysts see significant upside in three quantum computing stocks—Rigetti Computing, IonQ, and D-Wave Quantum—despite their speculative nature and recent volatility. Rigetti leads with an implied upside of about 81.4% based on a $28.81 target versus its $18.67 close, supported by a letter of intent for up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding and a 185.3% year-over-year revenue jump to $5.14 million. IonQ posted record Q2 revenue of $80.05 million, up 286.8% year over year, raised full-year 2026 guidance to $280–$290 million, and carries a 68.19% implied upside from its $46.84 close. D-Wave's first-half bookings surged to $35.5 million from $2.9 million a year earlier, with AT&T integrating its annealing platform to cut processing time from one hour to under 15 seconds, though its implied upside is the smallest at 19.7%.
IonQ and Quantinuum Pull Ahead in Quantum Computing Race
IonQ and Quantinuum are emerging as leaders in the quantum computing sector, driven by superior accuracy and strong second-quarter results. IonQ's revenue surged 287% to $80.1 million, beating estimates, with 60% from commercial customers and a backlog of $485 million. Quantinuum's revenue jumped 279% to $8 million, and its partnership with Oracle to integrate its Helios system into Oracle's cloud infrastructure is seen as a game changer. Both companies use trapped-ion technology, achieving over 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, far ahead of rivals like D-Wave and Rigetti, whose accuracy lags significantly.
Quantum computer hardware now available for pay-as-you-go use with JPYC
Yuichiro Minato, CEO of quantum computing company blueqat, announced on X on August 15 that quantum computer hardware can now be used on a pay-as-you-go basis with the yen stablecoin JPYC. Using the actual hardware with JPYC does not require a monthly contract, and users pay only for what they use. With blueqat MCP, in addition to a simulator that reproduces quantum circuits on a computer, users can also request computational processing on actual quantum computers. The service is currently connected to a 32-qubit superconducting processor in the Tokyo region. blueqat has now made hardware usage fees available through metered billing with JPYC. The base fee is 10 JPYC per hardware job, plus 0.1 JPYC per shot. A single shot therefore costs 10.1 JPYC. blueqat treats 1 JPYC as equal to 1 yen, and payments are made using Polygon. blueqat also offers a free plan and a paid plan at 980 yen per month, but with JPYC pay-as-you-go, users can run hardware jobs without a monthly contract. The simulator remains free, and JPYC billing applies only to hardware jobs.
Quantum ETFs Surge as US Government Pours Billions into Quantum Computing
Quantum computing exchange-traded funds have posted strong year-to-date gains amid historic U.S. government funding commitments to the sector. The Defiance Quantum ETF has surged 38.4%, the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund has soared 30.9%, and the Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF has rallied 69.9%. Driving the momentum are federal initiatives including $625 million from the Department of Energy to renew five National Quantum Information Science Research Centers, $2 billion in CHIPS Act incentives for domestic quantum foundries, and a $1 billion award to IBM to anchor a new U.S.-based quantum chip foundry in Albany, New York. Recent technological breakthroughs, such as Quantinuum's 98-qubit Helios system operating beyond classical simulation and NVIDIA's launch of open-source quantum AI models, have further validated the industry's commercial potential.
Origin Quantum and USTC Solve Speed-Fidelity Trade-off in Quantum Computing
A joint research team from Origin Quantum and the University of Science and Technology of China has proposed a parameter-space-expanded controlled-phase gate scheme, successfully solving the trade-off between speed and fidelity in superconducting quantum computing. Experimental verification has been completed on the self-developed superconducting quantum computer Origin Wukong. The scheme can be extended to various quantum computing platforms such as ion traps and solid-state spins, and is expected to provide a new method for achieving faster and higher-fidelity quantum logic operations. Quantum computing is regarded as a disruptive technology leading the next industrial transformation, with its application scenarios expanding from specialized computing to general-purpose computing, driving profound changes in finance, pharmaceuticals, energy, and other fields.
Rigetti Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Costs, Revenue Beat
Rigetti Computing reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted loss per share of 5 cents, wider than 4 cents a year ago and missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 66.7%. Total revenues surged 185.3% year over year to $5.1 million, beating the consensus by 4.68%, driven by growing demand for on-premises quantum computing systems including Novera-based deployments. Gross profit jumped 286.6% to $2.2 million with gross margin expanding roughly 1,120 basis points to 42.6%, but operating loss widened to $28.1 million from $19.9 million as research and development expenses rose 53.3% and selling, general and administrative expenses increased 37.5%. The company ended the quarter with $393.7 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term available-for-sale investments and no debt, while cumulative net cash provided by operating activities reached $14.9 million versus a use of $369.7 million a year ago.
Rigetti Computing partners with HPE and Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center on NSF-backed hybrid quantum testbed
Rigetti Computing announced a partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center to build TangleLab, a hybrid quantum-classical supercomputing testbed backed by a $5 million grant from the National Science Foundation. Rigetti will provide its 9-qubit Novera quantum computing system, which will be integrated with a classical high-performance computing platform. Construction is scheduled to begin in September 2026, with full operations expected in 2027. The project extends Rigetti's existing collaboration with HPE and aims to advance hybrid quantum-classical computing workflows for research institutions, government organizations, and enterprises.
Wall Street Analysts See Over 200% Upside for SoundHound AI and Rigetti Computing
Wall Street analysts project significant upside for two AI-related stocks, with the most bullish targets implying gains of 218% or more. For SoundHound AI, all four covering analysts rate it a buy, and the average price target of $12.75 suggests about 110% upside from current levels, while H.C. Wainwright's Scott Buck has a $20 target implying roughly 228% upside, citing strong sales growth and a path to positive adjusted EBITDA margins by late 2026. For Rigetti Computing, a quantum computing company tied to AI advancements, six of nine analysts rate it a buy with an average target of $30.71, indicating around 90% upside, and Rosenblatt Securities' John McPeake maintains a $40 target for about 150% upside despite recent insider selling and technology development concerns. Both stocks have declined year to date, with SoundHound AI down 42% and Rigetti Computing down roughly 30%.
Horizon Quantum Q2 Loss Widens to $115.2 Million on Warrant Charge
Horizon Quantum Computing reported a second-quarter net loss of $115.2 million, compared with a loss of $2.9 million a year earlier, driven largely by a $108 million non-cash charge from the remeasurement of warrant liabilities. The company ended the quarter with $113.3 million in cash, up from $96.6 million at the end of March, after warrant exercises generated $2.7 million during the quarter and approximately $28.7 million to date. Operating expenses rose to $7.2 million from $2.8 million, reflecting headcount growth to 57 full-time employees and increased research spending. Operationally, Horizon launched early access for its Beryllium quantum programming language, opened its Ember-1 superconducting testbed to users, and announced a collaboration with Quantum Machines, while also planning a 256-qubit IonQ testbed for 2027.
IQM Quantum Computers Reports First Public Earnings with Over EUR 102 Million Order Backlog
IQM Quantum Computers reported its first financial results as a public company, disclosing a total order backlog that surpassed EUR 102.1 million as of August 3, 2026, after adding EUR 33.0 million since June 30. For the first half of 2026, the company posted revenues of EUR 8.9 million and an operating loss of EUR 60.5 million, while its cash balance stood at EUR 309.4 million as of July 2, 2026, inclusive of listing proceeds. IQM initiated full-year 2026 guidance targeting new order intake of EUR 65 million to EUR 75 million and revenues of EUR 42 million to EUR 47 million. Operational highlights included the first US delivery to the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a landmark deal to integrate a quantum computer into the LUMI AI Factory supercomputer, and a collaboration with NVIDIA on AI-driven qubit calibration. The company also invested over EUR 40 million to double cleanroom capacity at its proprietary fab, enabling production of up to 30 full-stack quantum computers per year.
IonQ Outpaces Rigetti on Commercial Traction in Quantum Computing Race
IonQ is the preferred quantum computing stock for 2026 over Rigetti Computing, according to a Motley Fool analysis, due to stronger commercial traction. IonQ's fiscal 2025 revenue surged 201.9% to nearly $130.0 million, while Rigetti's revenue fell 34.3% to roughly $7.1 million. Both companies remain deeply unprofitable, with IonQ posting a net loss of approximately $510.4 million and Rigetti a net loss of roughly $216.2 million. IonQ's backlog grew more than 500% year over year, and its acquisition of SkyWater Technology adds semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Rigetti faces risks including tiny revenue, significant insider selling, and capital-intensive operations that may require additional funding.
Benchmark Analyst Sees Up to 90% Upside for IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave Quantum
Benchmark analyst Gary Mobley, a top 4% Wall Street performer, issued Buy ratings on three quantum computing stocks—IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum—citing a portfolio approach to the emerging sector. Mobley set a $60 price target on IonQ, implying roughly 65% upside, while the Street’s average target of $69.31 suggests 90% potential gain. He assigned Rigetti a $25 target for 67% upside, compared with the consensus $30.71 target pointing to 105% upside. For D-Wave, his $30 target implies 66% upside, while the average analyst target of $37.58 indicates a 108% gain. Mobley highlighted IonQ’s fully integrated quantum solutions and its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater, Rigetti’s modular chip architecture and partner ecosystem, and D-Wave’s unique dual annealing and gate-model approach bolstered by its $550 million purchase of Quantum Circuits.
IonQ Is the Quantum Stock to Buy, Rigetti to Sell, Infleqtion to Hold on the Dip
IonQ is the quantum computing stock to buy on the recent dip, while Rigetti Computing should be sold and Infleqtion held, according to an analysis. IonQ leads the industry in accuracy with 99.99% 2-qubit gate fidelity, driven by its trapped-ion approach that uses charged atoms and on-chip microwave antennas for stability. Rigetti’s superconducting qubit systems offer speed but lag in accuracy, with its Cepheus-1-108Q system achieving only 99.1% fidelity and missing a DARPA program milestone. Infleqtion’s neutral-atom technology, which achieved 99.73% fidelity in 2024, balances speed and accuracy and has found a niche in quantum sensing for government clients.
IBM and Qedma Achieve Quantum Advantage in Materials Physics Simulation
IBM and Qedma Quantum Computing have demonstrated quantum advantage by using error-mitigated quantum computation to model physics beyond the reach of classical supercomputers. The collaboration combined Qedma's QESEM error reduction software with IBM's 74-qubit Quantum Heron processor to resolve complex, long-lived dynamics in a two-dimensional Floquet Ising model, a system used to study magnetic properties under rhythmic driving. Classical simulations, including those run on RIKEN's Fugaku supercomputer and by BlueQubit, failed to provide consistent answers at the scale reached by the quantum experiments. The results were independently validated across platforms, including Quantinuum's trapped-ion systems, confirming the observed physics originated from the simulated quantum system. This marks the first time quantum advantage has been achieved with commercially available hardware and software, establishing error-mitigated quantum computers as trusted scientific instruments for exploring advanced materials applications.
Rigetti Computing Stock Jumps 7.7% on D-Wave's AT&T Deal and Benchmark Buy Rating
Rigetti Computing shares rose 7.7% through 11:50 a.m. ET Monday, lifted by rival D-Wave Quantum's announcement that AT&T will use its annealing quantum computing technology to optimize network operations and by Benchmark analyst David Williams initiating coverage with a buy rating and a $25 price target. AT&T's evaluation of multiple quantum technologies signals potential future opportunities for Rigetti, while Williams emphasized that quantum computing is not a winner-takes-all market and recommended a portfolio approach to investing in the sector. The analyst's price target implies a further 67% upside from the day's gains, though most analysts believe quantum computing companies remain five or more years from profitability.
Rigetti Computing Stock May Plunge After August 6 Earnings
Rigetti Computing is expected to report second-quarter results on August 6, and its sky-high valuation could trigger further downside for the stock. The company, which holds a market capitalization of $4.7 billion, generated just $4.4 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2026, and Wall Street estimates second-quarter revenue of $5.1 million. Despite a 198% year-over-year revenue jump, Rigetti posted a net loss of $20.5 million in the first quarter, with operating expenses of $27.3 million far outpacing sales. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 445, roughly 74 times higher than the Nasdaq-100, and even a 95% plunge would leave it more expensive than the index. Rigetti has already lost 40% of its value in 2026, and the upcoming report may not justify its premium.
Rigetti Computing Stock Faces Long Road to Revenue Growth
Rigetti Computing's stock has fallen from around $56 last October to roughly $14, and the base case over the next 18 months points to continued milestone-driven progress without meaningful revenue growth. The company reported just $4.4 million in revenue last quarter while spending $19.9 million on research and development, holding $569 million in cash and short-term investments. A letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce could provide up to $100 million in government funding over three years, and a planned 1,000-plus qubit system in the U.K. is three to four years away. In a bullish scenario, meeting qubit milestones and delivering on an $8.4 million contract with India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing could eventually lift the stock, while the bear case warns of missed milestones and dilution from new share issuance.
Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet vie to be the top pick-and-shovel play in quantum computing
Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet are positioning themselves as upstream providers to the quantum computing industry, which McKinsey estimates could grow from $1 billion today to $4.4 billion by 2028. Nvidia does not build quantum chips but offers CUDA-Q software and the NVQLink interconnect, already adopted by 17 quantum builders and nine national labs, and stands to benefit from selling classical computing power needed for error correction regardless of qubit type. Microsoft runs the Azure Quantum marketplace, reselling access to hardware from partners like Quantinuum and IonQ, while developing its own Majorana 2 topological chip, which it claims is 1,000 times more reliable than its predecessor. Alphabet’s Google Quantum AI builds superconducting chips such as the 105-qubit Willow processor, which demonstrated exponential error reduction and a computational advantage, and may eventually sell access through Google Cloud. Among the three, Nvidia is identified as the best pick-and-shovel play due to its direct, qubit-agnostic exposure, with Microsoft a close second for its low-risk marketplace model.
IonQ leads Rigetti in commercial quantum progress but both remain overvalued
IonQ is currently ahead of Rigetti Computing in both technical capabilities and commercial success in the quantum computing race, though both stocks appear overvalued given the early stage of the industry. IonQ reported first-quarter revenue of $64.7 million, a 755% increase year-over-year, and raised its full-year guidance to between $260 million and $270 million, while its remaining performance obligations reached a record $470 million and it held roughly $3.1 billion in cash and investments. Rigetti generated just $4.4 million in first-quarter revenue with $569 million in cash and no debt, and both companies' recent GAAP profits stemmed primarily from noncash accounting adjustments rather than core operations. McKinsey estimates quantum computing could create $1.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion in economic value by 2035, but the producer share of that total is only $60 billion to $100 billion, and timelines for achieving true quantum advantage remain highly uncertain.
Quantum X Labs Reports Error Correction Decoder Results Using NVIDIA CUDA-Q QEC
Quantum X Labs announced progress on its AI-driven quantum error-correction program, reporting that its transformer-based QECCT decoder outperformed the classical Minimum-Weight Perfect Matching decoder in selected simulated regimes. The company executed its Deep Quantum Error Correction workflow on an NVIDIA GPU in an AWS environment and benchmarked the decoder across controlled toric-code noise configurations. QXL also tested synthetic surface-code configurations modeled on Google's public surface-code geometry, with the QECCT decoder showing stable logical and bit error rates under varying physical error conditions. Future work is expected to extend evaluations to publicly available experimental datasets and refine data pipelines compatible with NVIDIA CUDA-Q QEC frameworks, while the broader roadmap includes planned work with IQCC, a Quantum Machines company, to generate hardware-derived syndrome data on superconducting quantum processing hardware.
IBM to acquire HRL Laboratories to broaden quantum computing portfolio
IBM has signed a definitive agreement to acquire HRL Laboratories, aiming to expand its quantum computing portfolio by adding HRL's silicon spin qubit expertise. The acquisition focuses on longer-term progress in scalable and fault-tolerant quantum systems, complementing IBM's existing superconducting circuit work. IBM has committed over US$10 billion to quantum initiatives, and this deal signals a willingness to invest in multiple quantum approaches rather than relying on a single technology path. The move adds execution risk around integration and capital discipline, but could strengthen IBM's position against competitors like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon that are also investing in quantum and advanced cloud infrastructure.
IonQ and D-Wave slump while Nvidia quietly builds quantum infrastructure
Shares of quantum computing pure plays IonQ and D-Wave Quantum have tumbled over the past month, with IonQ down 37% and D-Wave off 28%, even as Nvidia positions itself as an essential supplier to the entire sector. IonQ reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $64.7 million, up 755% year over year, and raised its full-year guidance to between $260 million and $270 million, while D-Wave’s quarterly revenue fell 81% to $2.9 million, though its bookings jumped to $33.4 million. Both companies remain heavily reliant on government contracts and proposed Chips Act funding, with IonQ holding $3.1 billion in cash and equivalents versus D-Wave’s $588 million. Nvidia, which generated $81.6 billion in total revenue in its fiscal first quarter of 2027, launched NVQLink in October 2025 to connect quantum processors to its GPUs, and its CUDA-Q platform has been adopted by 17 quantum hardware developers including IonQ. Because every major quantum program now requires Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs, the company stands to benefit regardless of which quantum computing firm ultimately succeeds, making it a lower-risk way to gain exposure to the emerging technology.
Rigetti Could Be a Huge Winner in Sovereign Quantum Hardware
Rigetti Computing is building a risky but fascinating quantum hardware story, with its U.S.-based Fab-1 facility, government-linked research, and superconducting quantum platform potentially gaining importance if America treats domestic quantum capability as strategic infrastructure.
D-Wave Quantum vs. Rigetti Computing: Which Quantum Computing Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing are compared as quantum computing investments for 2026. D-Wave reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $24.6 million, a 178.5% increase, with a net loss of $355.1 million, while Rigetti posted revenue of $7.1 million, a 34.3% decline, and a net loss of $216.2 million. D-Wave recently acquired Quantum Circuits Inc. to add gate-model computing to its annealing technology, and it received $100 million in U.S. government funding, whereas Rigetti focuses on modular superconducting processors and faces high customer concentration from government contracts. The author favors D-Wave due to its broader technology platform and government backing, though both companies carry significant risks from ongoing losses and competition.
Kalshi traders see low odds for OpenAI government stake deal this year
Kalshi contract traders remain highly skeptical that a deal will materialize before the end of the year for the U.S. government to take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic, despite recent reports that OpenAI proposed granting a 5% stake to the Trump administration. Traders see odds of less than 30% for such a stake, according to a CNBC report. In contrast, odds are well over 60% that the government could take a stake this year in quantum computing companies Rigetti Computing or D-Wave Quantum, as well as in semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries.
Qolab Announces $54.2 Million Series B Financing Led by UC Investments
Qolab Inc. has announced total funding of $54.2 million through the initial closings of its Series B Preferred Stock financing, together with the conversion of $12.6 million in convertible securities and a commitment for $10 million in future convertible securities. The round was led by UC Investments, with participation from existing investors including Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation, Octave Ventures, and Phoenix Venture Partners. The funding will support development of scalable superconducting quantum computing technologies, expansion of semiconductor collaborations, and acceleration toward fault-tolerant quantum computing. The announcement was made during the 75th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, where Qolab co-founder and CTO Dr. John Martinis, a 2025 Nobel Prize winner, joined other leading scientists.
Alphabet and IonQ take different paths in quantum computing race
Alphabet and IonQ are pursuing distinct quantum computing technologies, with Alphabet using superconducting qubits and IonQ employing trapped ions. IonQ holds a world record for two-qubit gate fidelity at 99.99%, compared to Alphabet's 99.88%, though Alphabet's approach offers faster speeds. Alphabet benefits from its core Google business to self-fund quantum research, while IonQ relies on research contracts and single-system sales. The analysis suggests Alphabet is a more conservative investment, while IonQ represents a higher-risk, higher-reward opportunity.
D-Wave and Rigetti Compete for Quantum Leadership in H2 2026
D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing are vying for investor attention as the second half of 2026 begins, with both stocks down year to date amid cautious sentiment. D-Wave enters the period with record bookings and a strong enterprise pipeline, while its acquisition of Quantum Circuits expands its technology into gate-model computing. Rigetti launched general availability of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system and reported nearly 199% year-over-year revenue growth, reaffirming its goal of achieving quantum advantage in roughly three years. Analysts have turned cautious on D-Wave's near-term earnings, while Rigetti has seen smaller downward estimate revisions. Zacks Investment Research rates D-Wave a Hold and Rigetti a Sell, favoring D-Wave's commercial traction in the near term.
A scientific dispute over Microsoft's quantum-computing research has shifted investor attention toward D-Wave Quantum, which is showing strong commercial traction. Researchers published a critique in Nature questioning whether Microsoft's experimental results sufficiently demonstrate the Majorana particles needed for its topological-qubit architecture, though Microsoft disputes the criticism. The controversy highlights a broader industry debate over scientific validation versus long-term platform potential. D-Wave reported first-quarter 2026 bookings of $33.4 million, a nearly twentyfold increase from the prior-year period, and has expanded into gate-model quantum computing through its acquisition of Quantum Circuits. Analysts have raised their full-year 2026 estimates, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for D-Wave's loss narrowing from 31 cents to 25 cents per share over the past 90 days.
Investors Begin Separating Quantum Computing Winners From Losers
Investors are increasingly distinguishing between quantum computing companies based on commercial progress rather than scientific promise, with IonQ gaining ground while D-Wave, Rigetti, and Quantum Computing Inc. declined over the past six months. IonQ has generated positive returns, whereas D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing Inc. have all moved lower despite ongoing technological announcements. The shift was partly catalyzed by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's January 2025 warning that practical quantum computing may be decades away, though Nvidia itself deepened quantum investments through CUDA-Q and hybrid computing initiatives. Analysts note that major infrastructure players like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, IBM, and Nvidia may capture more quantum value than pure-play hardware companies by profiting regardless of which architecture wins. The market is now rewarding evidence of revenue growth, customer adoption, and a credible path to commercialization.