Bitcoin Breaks Above 365-Day Moving Average as On-Chain Metrics Turn Bullish, Though Short-Term Conditions Look Overheated

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Summary · why it matters

Bitcoin has recovered to around $86,000 and climbed above its 365-day and 200-day moving averages, adding to signals that it has entered a new bullish phase. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index rose above the bullish threshold of 60 in mid-August and has since climbed to 80, with improvements in on-chain conditions preceding the price rally. The market absorbed roughly 539,000 BTC sold by long-term holders near the $77,100 to $80,200 range, and the next supply cluster is concentrated around $88,000 to $91,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $1.59 billion in net inflows over just three trading days from September 17 to 21, marking a return of institutional money. On the other hand, futures open interest and funding rates remain elevated, and the Fear & Greed Index has risen to 78, in Extreme Greed territory, suggesting short-term overheating. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.99 percent and the 10-year real yield at about 2.64 percent. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, political uncertainty is adding to the mix, and some analysts point to the possibility of a sharp correction of roughly 5 to 15 percent as leverage is unwound.

Impact on assets 3

Others▲ · 2 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, lifting the effective federal funds rate.

Others▲ · 1 stocks
Bitcoin
BTC-USD
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Bitcoin broke above its 365-day and 200-day moving averages with bullish on-chain metrics and $1.59B of spot ETF inflows signaling returning institutional demand.

Theme Impact 3

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