Price Action

Rosenblatt initiated coverage of Sandisk with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, sending the NAND-flash and data-storage producer's shares up approximately 6.6% to $1,884.05. Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy sees NAND becoming a more important piece of the computing stack as AI workloads expand beyond processors into massive pools of high-speed storage. Sandisk's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% sequentially, as management leans into enterprise solid-state drives and its manufacturing partnership with Kioxia. At $1,884.05, the $2,400 target implies roughly 27.4% additional upside. Sandisk's GF Score sits at just 51 out of 100, with standout growth and financial strength offset by much weaker GF Value and momentum readings.

Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix after flagging weaker viewer engagement and rising pressure from rivals such as YouTube, intensifying concerns about how much time subscribers spend on the platform. The downgrade has thrown a spotlight on whether Netflix's push into formats like live sports, video podcasts, and short-form "Verts" can meaningfully revive engagement. Netflix's narrative projects $65.5 billion revenue and $19.8 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 10.6% yearly revenue growth and a $6.2 billion earnings increase from $13.6 billion today. Before this downgrade, the most optimistic analysts were banking on Netflix lifting earnings to about US$21.8 billion by 2029, with richer margins, while also warning that heavier content spending could bite into profits if engagement slows. Netflix's forecasts yield a $94.04 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Shares of major banks, insurers and online travel agencies slid on Tuesday as investors feared that tools like Meta Platforms Inc.'s personal AI agent could disrupt businesses that benefit from so-called consumer inertia. The S&P 500 Financials Index dropped as much as 2.4% to its lowest levels since July, with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. all declining more than 2.5%, while insurer Allstate Corp. and brokerage Charles Schwab Corp. fell more than 5%. Travel booking companies were also hit, with Expedia Group Inc. down 3.7% and Booking Holdings Inc. falling 3.9%, and in Europe telecommunications was the worst performing sector in the benchmark Stoxx 600 as France's Orange SA and British carrier BT Group Plc each dropped about 4%. The downturn came as Muse, Meta's new AI agent, rose to the top of Apple Inc.'s US app store, sending Meta shares up 11% on Monday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s trading desk said telecoms, insurance and utilities are the industries to watch if AI agents make it easier and cheaper to switch service providers, naming AT&T Inc., T-Mobile US Inc., Allstate, Progressive Corp., Netflix Inc., Paramount Skydance Corp., Expedia and Booking among its basket of consumer inertia stocks at risk.

OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX have reached a combined valuation of roughly $5.2 trillion, eclipsing the $4.1 trillion first-day value generated by 3,365 U.S. technology IPOs between 1980 and 2025. That $5.2 trillion total includes approximately $2 trillion for SpaceX, $2 trillion for Anthropic and $1.2 trillion for OpenAI, with OpenAI and Anthropic alone accounting for about $3.2 trillion, or roughly 62% of the three-company total, despite neither having reached public markets. SpaceX priced its June IPO at $135 per share, initially valuing it around $1.75 trillion, then opened at $150 and finished its first session at $160.95, pushing its market capitalization to roughly $2.1 trillion after raising about $75 billion. The stock later reached an intraday record of $225.64 before retreating sharply, closing Monday at $151.85, about 5.7% below its first-day close and nearly 33% below its record high. OpenAI has pushed back its IPO timetable and is not expected to list in 2026, while Anthropic has reportedly been considering a November offering at a valuation as high as $2 trillion, although timing and terms could still change.

Root, Inc. shares have fallen 12% over the past month as slower premium growth and higher loss costs weighed on an otherwise profitable quarter. Gross written premium declined 1.9% year over year to $339.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, and management expects year-end 2026 policies in force to be relatively flat if current direct auto competition persists. Profitability held up, with second-quarter net income up 15.5% to $25.4 million, adjusted EBITDA up 16.5% to $43.8 million, and the net combined ratio improving 310 basis points to 92.1%; for the first half of 2026, adjusted EBITDA reached $100.6 million versus $69.5 million a year earlier. The gross accident-period loss ratio rose to 61.6% from 57.4% a year earlier on vehicle repair costs, medical inflation and channel mix, and management expects the usual seasonal rise in loss ratios in the second half of 2026. Root plans to launch its next predictive pricing model in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a more material impact expected in 2027, while its exclusive embedded insurance partnership with Carvana, which surpassed 200,000 policies sold, now runs through at least August 2028.

Fastenal received a Zacks Rank #2 rating, reflecting a stronger full year earnings outlook for the industrial distributor. The upgrade arrives after a 22.8% year-to-date share price gain, a 90 day return of 8.9%, and a 3 year total shareholder return of 94.8%, though the 30 day return has slipped 3.1% to around US$49.65. The most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at about $48.84, slightly below the recent close, implying the stock is 2% overvalued. Fastenal is expanding its Fastenal Managed Inventory technology, which currently represents over 43% of revenue, and aims to lift its digital footprint to 66-68% of sales from 61%. Key risks to that fair value story include higher tariff related costs hitting margins and weaker pricing power than analysts have assumed.

McDonald's will hold a closely watched investor day in Chicago on Wednesday, its final chance this year to reverse an 18% decline in its stock price. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish wrote that the September 23 event could prove a crucial clearing event if management articulates a credible path to reaccelerating same-store sales in the fourth quarter and 2027, protecting and growing operating margins, and still accelerating unit growth despite the tough macro. The company's recent initiatives, including a McValue menu with 10 items under $3, six new caffeinated drinks launched May 6, and a nationwide August 17 rollout of its Red Bull Dragonberry Energizer, failed to generate the incremental traffic McDonald's was banking on in the second quarter. McDonald's US comparable sales rose just 0.8%, far behind the 8.5% year-over-year gain at Restaurant Brands International-owned Burger King US, which beat analyst expectations. Barish said he expects a relatively quick adjustment to the marketing and menu innovation calendars that drove summer execution issues, noting that some digital promos returned August 10, Spicy Chicken McNuggets came back September 1, and a Spongebob x One Piece promo starts September 15.

McDonald's is bringing back its Monopoly promotion on October 6, 2026, with a $1 million grand prize, as the fast-food chain's stock trades near a two-year low. The grand prize is paid as a $50,000-per-year annuity over 20 years with no interest, not a lump sum, according to the official rules. The prize pool also includes a 2027 Jeep Cherokee, a Carnival Cruise vacation, a trip to the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex, five 2026 Jeep Grand Cherokee Limited prizes via Bonus Play running through November 2, Coca-Cola experience packages, $50,000 toward a home down payment or college debt via Chance Cards, and a Free for a Year McDonald's gift card worth roughly $1,040. Gameplay now runs entirely through the McDonald's app, with customers peeling physical game piece codes off eligible food and drink purchases and scanning them in the app, and customers can pre-register between September 29 and October 5 for 500 bonus MyMcDonald's Rewards points. The promotion will not return to the UK or Australia in 2026. McDonald's traded at $250.32 as of 11:35 AM Eastern on September 22, 2026, up 0.98% in the session, but down 16.49% year to date from $299.76 at the end of last year, down 15.08% over one year, and down 6.96% over the past month, while up 15.69% over five years. The stock hit a new 52-week low on the same day it reached Dividend King status with 50 consecutive years of dividend increases, and US comparable sales softened to 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, with global comparable sales decelerating to 1.3%. Analysts have cut their price targets broadly, with TD Cowen going to $282 from $300 with a Hold, Deutsche Bank to $300 from $325 while keeping a Buy, Morgan Stanley to $308 from $319 at Equalweight, Citi to $310 from $345, RBC to $290 from $295, and UBS to $320 from $340.

Aerospace and defense stocks fell broadly Tuesday after President Donald Trump raised the prospect of a negotiated end to the U.S. conflict with Iran during an address to the United Nations, while warning that military action could intensify if Tehran refuses to reach an agreement. V2X fell about 3.8%, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions dropped 3.7% and Karman Holdings declined 3.5%, while BAE Systems was down 2.9%, Northrop Grumman fell 2.8% and Lockheed Martin lost 2.7%; General Dynamics, Huntington Ingalls, L3Harris Technologies and RTX also traded lower. Trump told the UN General Assembly he expects the United States eventually to reach an agreement with Iran and believes Tehran will make a deal after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, and Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official, that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington reduces military pressure and ends its blockade of Iranian ports, with Iran's UN delegation authorized to restart diplomatic negotiations. Trump also said the United States has ample munitions and is producing them at unprecedented levels, addressing concerns that months of fighting have depleted U.S. weapons inventories, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors and THAAD interceptors. He separately predicted progress toward ending Russia's war in Ukraine, saying the United States was working with Russian and Ukrainian leaders and suggesting an agreement could come sooner than expected, leaving defense investors weighing possible negotiated settlements against the longer-term need to replenish weapons stockpiles.

Bank of America has joined other major banks in pushing for tighter safeguards around AI shopping agents as autonomous commerce moves closer to mainstream payments. The banks want autonomous transactions to clearly disclose when an AI agent is involved, explain important purchasing decisions and protect customer information while keeping platforms interoperable. The bigger concern is what happens when a bot gets a transaction wrong, since automated purchasing could expose card credentials, steer consumers toward options with weaker protections and make responsibility for fraud harder to untangle. The stakes are large at Bank of America's scale: the company processed roughly $1.2 trillion in payments during the second quarter, while credit- and debit-card spending totaled about $266 billion. The bank's shares traded at $57.435 on Tuesday, and the stock sits 6.94% above its $53.71 GF Value.

Microchip Technology shares have risen 17.3% year to date, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 19.8% gain, as the company leans on data-center, aerospace and defense growth to offset supply constraints and elevated debt. Microchip expects total data-center revenues to rise roughly 69% from about $591 million in calendar 2025 to approximately $1 billion in 2026, with 14 PCIe Gen6 design wins as of September, comprising 12 PCIe switch wins and two retimer wins, expected to generate meaningful revenues in calendar 2027. The company estimates the longer-term PCIe and retimer addressable markets at roughly $10 billion and $2 billion, respectively, while industrial revenues rose 24.3% year over year and automotive revenues increased 29.3% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and aerospace and defense revenues climbed 45.6% year over year to represent 16.7% of sales. Microchip had $5.36 billion of long-term debt as of June 30, 2026, and about 65% of its wafer fabrication is externally sourced, leaving it exposed to foundry, substrate and test capacity constraints. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2027 earnings is $3.63 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and indicating 121.34% growth over fiscal 2026, with fiscal 2027 revenues pegged at $6.41 billion, suggesting 35.91% growth, while second-quarter fiscal 2027 net sales are guided to $1.59 billion to $1.618 billion and non-GAAP earnings to 91-95 cents per share. Microchip currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

AECOM shares have dropped 30.1% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Engineering - R and D Services industry's 2.7% gain, the broader Zacks Construction sector's 4% drop and the S&P 500 Index's 16% rise over the same period. The decline reflects a $337 million pre-tax charge recorded in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 tied to a delayed Construction Management project, where weaker-than-expected subcontractor productivity raised completion costs and pushed substantial completion into the second quarter of fiscal 2027. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, operating cash flow fell to $169.2 million from $625.5 million a year earlier, and the company now expects full-year free cash flow of approximately $300 million, with higher expected debt balances and lower cash levels projected to increase fiscal 2027 net interest expense by $30-$35 million. Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates have moved down to $4.48 per share over the past 60 days, implying a year-over-year decline of 14.8%, while fiscal 2027 estimates declined to $5.99 over the past 30 days, pointing to growth of 33.7%. AECOM's backlog reached a record $27.8 billion in the fiscal third quarter, up 13%, supported by record quarterly wins of $4.2 billion and a 1.6x book-to-burn ratio, and the company has returned more than $3.5 billion to shareholders since September 2020.

Teekay Tankers stock fell 2.9% through 10:55 a.m. ET, giving back part of a September rally that had lifted shares as much as 14% through Friday's close. The maritime services provider, which gets 87% of its revenue from its tanker business, had climbed as charter rates spiked: StreetInsider.com reported the cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier supertanker passed $1 million per day, up 5 times from what chartering a supertanker cost before the Iran war began Feb. 28. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index closed just below 2,000 before the war, hit 2,421 at the beginning of September, and has more than doubled this month to 5,092, a spike StreetInsider attributes to a near-shutdown of Hormuz traffic. Today's decline follows a Reuters report that Iran offered over the weekend to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States Navy lifts its blockade of Iranian shipping, which would let oil move again and make tankers easier and cheaper to charter. The article notes this is not the first time rumors that the Iran war is about to end have pushed oil stocks lower, and that if the rumors prove false, charter rates and Teekay stock could go right back up.

US households now hold a record share of their net worth in stocks, with corporate equities accounting for 39.9% of household net worth, the largest share in Federal Reserve records. Owners' equity in residential real estate fell to 19.3% in the same quarter, leaving a gap of 20.6 percentage points between the two measures, according to the Fed's quarterly Financial Accounts report cited by the Kobeissi Letter. Households held $185.65 trillion in net worth over the period, of which directly and indirectly held corporate equities accounted for $74.03 trillion, while owners' equity in residential real estate, calculated by subtracting mortgage debt from home values, totaled $35.81 trillion. Equity exposure has climbed 12.6 percentage points since the third quarter of 2022, while the housing share lost 3.5 points over the same stretch, a reversal from the third quarter of 2005 when real estate exposure peaked at 24.1%, one point above equities. Market returns explain most of the shift, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a record 27,122.09 on September 21, a gain of 16.7% for the year, and the S&P 500 finishing the same session at 7,764.70, up 13.4% in 2026, while the Case-Shiller national home price index rose just 1.5% in the year through June against 3.5% inflation. Forecasts for the rest of the year for the S&P 500 range from 7,400 to 8,100, with Bank of America holding the lowest target at 7,400, implying a decline of roughly 4.7% from Monday's close, and the next Financial Accounts release in December will show whether the third quarter widened the gap further.

Marram Investment Management exited its position in PayPal Holdings at a slight loss during the second quarter of 2026 after its investment thesis broke when the company's Board abruptly fired the CEO and appointed a successor, a former HP executive with no payments, technology, or product experience. The firm disclosed the move in its second-quarter 2026 investor letter, which reported a portfolio return of +2.7% net of fees for the quarter and +3.2% year-to-date, with a cumulative return of +632.4% and a +13.7% annualized return since inception. Marram said its original thesis rested on a capable management team investing to rebuild PayPal's technology, product, and brand, and that it acted when the facts changed. PayPal closed at $52.62 per share on September 21, 2026, down 15.50% over the past month and 21.82% over the past year, with a market capitalization of $45.01 billion and a 52-week range of $38.46 to $79.22. The number of hedge fund portfolios holding PayPal fell to 60 at the end of the second quarter from 76 in the previous quarter.