Brokers Recommend Accumulating Meat and Beverage Stocks Ahead of El Niño Intensifying Late This Year

India's meteorological department has reported that an intensifying El Niño is putting India at risk of its driest monsoon season in 17 years, after cumulative rainfall from June to September came in 15% below the long-term average. That could weigh on agricultural output and further stoke food inflation, which climbed to 5.95% in August. The report said that if dry conditions persist, this year's monsoon will be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal, potentially affecting both the current harvest and the next planting cycle. Food costs rose for a seventh straight month in August. The meteorological office had forecast in May that rainfall this season would be 10% below normal. Christian Werner, managing director of the consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics in Australia, said weather conditions could favor cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal in the final week of September, which may help bring critically needed rain to eastern and northeastern India and ease drought conditions there. Adequate monsoon rainfall is crucial for the hundreds of millions of Indian farmers who rely on seasonal rains to grow their crops, with India among the world's largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has ordered relevant agencies to tighten legal enforcement and penalties against those using slash-and-burn methods to clear land, after the country faced weeks of severe forest fires that produced haze affecting neighboring countries. At a cabinet meeting, Prabowo said the government would not be lenient toward individuals or companies responsible for the fires, and instructed the Minister of the Presidential Secretariat and the Minister of Law to consider ways to increase legal penalties, and proposed that the government discuss with the House of Representatives to tighten the law, possibly classifying such burning as "ecological terrorism" given the severity of the problem. He also ordered local governments to revoke exemptions that allow smallholder farmers to use fire to clear small plots, and directed police to pursue criminal cases against companies that violate fire prevention measures. Reports say the Indonesian government has mobilized more than 50 aircraft to drop water and conduct cloud seeding to control the fires, while Japan sent three CH-47 Chinook helicopters to join the water-dropping mission on Wednesday, September 16. This fire season is the most severe in 11 years, amid weather from a "super El Niño" phenomenon that has left forests and agricultural land severely dry, with Borneo and Sumatra the worst-affected areas. The haze has increased respiratory illness cases and pushed air quality in Singapore and Malaysia to levels harmful to health. Government data show that from January to July this year, fires burned 202,000 hectares, or nearly 500,000 acres, while YKAN, an environmental group, estimates that fires caused an additional roughly 600,000 hectares, or 1.4 million acres, of damage in August. Indonesian Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni warned that the fires could persist into early November, as the rainy season is likely to arrive later than previously expected.