McGlone Warns Crypto Faces Lose-Lose Fed Trap as S&P Valuations Near Dot-Com Peak

โดย Bloomberg·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that crypto faces a "lose-lose" setup as the Federal Reserve tightens policy while US equity valuations sit near historic extremes. The Federal Reserve last week unanimously raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase in more than three years, with median projections putting the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. Bitcoin initially traded around $75,000–$76,500 after the decision but has since recovered to approach $82,000, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.97%. McGlone argues crypto loses either way: persistent inflation could keep rates elevated and restrict liquidity, while tighter policy that breaks the equity rally could trigger a broad risk-off move, and he has previously said a sustained 20% S&P 500 correction could drive Bitcoin as low as $10,000 in an extreme downside scenario. The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio is around 41 against a long-term median of roughly 16.1, approaching the December 1999 dot-com peak of 44.2, and Bank of America's normalized S&P 500 P/E recently stood at 32, a level historically corresponding to an average annual return of around -3% over the following decade. Glassnode reported that Bitcoin recently fell below its True Market Mean, with onchain capital inflows slowing, ETF flows stalled, stablecoin growth weakening, and corporate Bitcoin purchases cooling, describing the market as moving into an area of "thin support"; futures open interest remained elevated at $36.4 billion, above Glassnode's statistical upper band of $36 billion.

Impact on assets 4

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
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Others▼ · 1 stocks
Bitcoin
BTC-USD
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

McGlone warns Fed tightening and elevated rates create a lose-lose liquidity/risk-off trap for Bitcoin.

Theme Impact 5

Off-coverage companies 1

GlassnodePrivate▼ Negative
relevance

Glassnode data cited showing Bitcoin below True Market Mean with slowing inflows and thin support; no clear driver channel.

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