Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited

The government is preparing to launch the Thai Teaw Thai Plus scheme on 1 October to stimulate tourism during the high season, aiming to generate total tourism revenue of 3 trillion baht within four years. Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities said the scheme is positive for the tourism sector, especially AOT, BA, ERW, CENTEL and MINT. Details and conditions are expected to be finalised this week, with the proposal set to go to the cabinet in September.

Three brokers maintained buy recommendations on Bangkok Airways after an analyst meeting, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to recover from the previous quarter, supported by the Samui high season, higher passenger numbers, and lower jet fuel prices. Pi Securities set a new fair value of 22.40 baht per share and trimmed its 2026 net profit forecast slightly to 3.14 billion baht, down 12 percent from the previous year. Yuanta Securities kept its end-2027 target price at 22.50 baht per share and expects 2026 normalised profit of 3.69 billion baht, down about 3 percent from the previous year. Krungsri Securities expects Bangkok Airways' third-quarter 2026 normalised profit at about 1 billion baht, up 5 percent from the same period last year, with long-term positives from a possible increase in Samui airport passenger service charges and the U-Tapao airport development project.

Krungsri Securities says BA is keeping its 2026 forecast targets: 4.3 million passengers, up 2 percent from the previous year; average ticket price of 4,200 baht, up 1 percent; load factor of 80 percent, up 4 percent; and capacity of 3.3 billion seat-kilometres, down 5 percent. Despite the impact of the war, the Samui route is growing strongly, and the strategy of raising ticket prices and hedging fuel has limited the damage. The company's targets are close to the broker's assumptions, which still project 2026 normalised profit of 3.9 billion baht, up 4 percent. Forward bookings for the rest of 2026 as of 14 August were down 1 percent from the previous year, with the Samui route also down 1 percent. However, part of this is expected to reflect shorter booking behaviour, because Samui passenger numbers in August 2026 continue to show good momentum, growing 10 percent year on year. The broker still expects third-quarter 2026 normalised profit, the high season for the Samui route, to reach 1 billion baht, up 5 percent. BA plans to raise passenger service charges at Samui airport from the current 300 baht for domestic and 700 baht for international flights, and is preparing information to submit to government agencies for approval, with investment of about 1.5 billion baht. The broker estimates that every 100 baht increase would lift BA's revenue by 300 million baht per year and profit after depreciation and tax by 200 million baht per year, or about 5 percent upside to profit, based on Samui airport passenger volume of 3 million in 2025 and 30-year depreciation, before any additional costs such as a higher share that may need to be paid to BAREIT. The U-Tapao airport development project is waiting for the EEC office to discuss with relevant government agencies about changing conditions to match the current situation. BA expects a conclusion and the start of investment from late 2026 to early 2027. The broker maintains a buy rating on BA with a target price of 25 baht, viewing BA as the most outstanding airline in the sector because it is less affected by the US-Iran war and high oil prices than competitors. In the short term, third-quarter 2026 normalised profit, the high season for the Samui route, is expected to grow strongly to more than 1 billion baht, up 5 percent from the previous year. In the long term, there is further upside from the opportunity to raise Samui airport passenger service charges and from the U-Tapao airport development project, which is expected to become clearer from late this year to early next year. BA holds a 40 percent stake in the company that won the bid.

Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited, or BA, is maintaining its 2026 target of 48,000 flights and a passenger load factor of 80%, while expanding its fleet to 24 aircraft by year-end from 22 in the first half, and expects 26 to 29 aircraft in the first half of 2027. In the first half, it completed 23,983 flights and produced 1.602 billion seat-kilometres, against a full-year target of 3.3 billion seat-kilometres. The average fare for the full year is expected at 4,200 baht per trip, while the first half stood at 4,292 baht. The company plans to apply for an increase in the passenger service charge, or PSC, to the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand and the Civil Aviation Board, citing the Samui Airport improvement project as the main reason. Currently, the PSC ceiling is 700 baht for international routes and 400 baht for domestic routes, but the actual domestic collection is only 300 baht. On fuel risk management, the company has hedged 30% of its consumption through year-end at an average price of 80 US dollars per barrel.

Bangkok Airways, or BA, reported second-quarter 2026 core profit of 349 million baht, down 29% from the same period last year and down 82% from the previous quarter, but 46% above market expectations. The result was supported by still-strong travel demand on Samui routes and high dividend income growth, which helped offset the impact of geopolitical tensions. Net profit attributable to shareholders stood at 330.92 million baht, down 17.63% from a year earlier, while total revenue rose 5.5% to 6.0525 billion baht. However, total expenses increased 11.7% due to a 49% rise in fuel costs and higher aircraft maintenance expenses. Analysts at Krungsri Securities noted that average ticket prices rose about 5% and the passenger load factor improved to 75.2%. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities maintained a buy recommendation with a target price of 22 baht and sees potential to raise its 2026 profit forecast from the current 2.3 billion baht.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to propose to the Cabinet by the end of August 2026 for approval of the Thai Tour Thai Plus project, requesting a budget of 2.45 billion baht from the emergency loan decree. It aims to stimulate the economy during the low season and generate over 56 billion baht in circulation. If approved, the public can start using the benefits from late 2026, including accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht, digital coupons, and airfare discounts, alongside measures to attract foreign tourists. Analysts assess that this project will be positive for tourism, hotel, and domestic airline stocks, namely CENTEL, ERW, MINT, AWC, AOT, BA, and AAV.

The Minister of Tourism and Sports has assigned policies to the Tourism Authority of Thailand board to drive the tourism industry under the concept of Tourism for All, Tourism for the Future, preparing to move forward with three key projects during the high season. These are the Thai Travels Thailand Plus, or Co-pay, project to stimulate domestic travel; the Fly Thai All the Feelings project, partnering with six domestic airlines to offer ticket discounts to Thai citizens for 400,000 seats; and the Thailand Air Connect project, collaborating with airlines and partners to increase frequency and seat capacity on both charter and commercial flights. In addition, the government aims to elevate Thailand into a valuable and sustainable destination, promoting travel to secondary cities and 55 target communities, and pushing for the country to become a global event hub by hosting the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival from 11 to 13 December 2026 in Chonburi province, which is expected to attract no fewer than 150,000 attendees and generate total economic value of up to 6.132 billion baht. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, assesses that these measures are a positive factor for tourism-related stocks, including AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, as well as retail operators in tourist cities, viewing that travel and spending have an opportunity to recover in the second half of the year.

Asia Plus Securities says Middle East risks are easing after the US halted strikes, Iran scaled back retaliation, and diplomatic talks resumed. This has pulled Brent crude down from above 100 dollars a barrel to 88 dollars a barrel. However, factors to watch remain, including US-Iran negotiations, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and tensions in the Red Sea. Polymarket indicates the chance of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations is just 16 percent in August, 30 percent in September, and 60 percent in December. The research team therefore recommends a short-term strategy tilting more towards de-escalation trades, reducing some exposure to oil-play stocks and rotating into beneficiaries of lower oil prices, while maintaining tactical hedges. It flags nine stocks: Centel, Minor International, Erawan, Thai Airways, Bangkok Airways, B.Grimm, GPSC, Gulf, and Dohome.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target for the SET Index to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target PER of 17 times. The research team lifted its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 3 percent to 99 baht, and its 2027 estimate to 102 baht, reflecting growth of 13 percent and 4 percent from the prior year, respectively. It also sees the Thai economy recovering steadily and foreign capital flows having a chance to return to the Thai stock market, as foreign investors' holdings of Thai equities remain below past peaks. Recommended top picks include BA, BBL, BDMS, CPALL, CPF, CPN, ERW, GULF, SAPPE, STA, and TIDLOR.

Prime Minister Anutin's visit to China is bolstering investment and tourism confidence. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is partnering with Sichuan Airlines, Meituan, and several Chinese allies to increase flights, enhance safety, and market to quality tourists. The target for Chinese tourists in 2026 has been adjusted to 5.13 million, generating revenue of approximately 288 billion baht. Research views this as positive for tourism and aviation stocks such as AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, given the continued recovery in flights and Chinese tourist arrivals.

Kasikorn Securities notes that the Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that from January 1 to July 18, 2026, Thailand welcomed a cumulative 17.36 million foreign tourists, generating revenue of 839 billion baht. Although this is still down 3.05 percent compared to the same period last year, the top five source markets were China, Malaysia, India, Russia, and South Korea. Meanwhile, in the latest week, tourist numbers rose 4.04 percent from the previous week, supported by school holidays, increased flights, and a recovery in the Taiwan market. The research team views this as positive for tourism and airport stocks such as Airports of Thailand, Asia Aviation, Bangkok Airways, Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, Minor International, and Asset World Corporation, given the gradual recovery in tourist numbers expected in the second half of the year, even though cumulative arrivals remain slightly below last year's level.

Bangkok Airways says advance ticket reservations on the Samui route from January to September 2026 grew 6% compared with the previous year, after Samui was named the world's best island for 2026 by Travel + Leisure magazine. President Puttipong Prasarttong-Osoth said demand remains strong even though flights are nearly full. The company has increased flight frequency on the Phuket–Samui route from three to four flights a day to eight flights a day to accommodate passenger distribution from Phuket, which is becoming a key tourism gateway. In addition, the number of high-end travellers arriving on Samui by private jet has risen from one to two aircraft a day to six on some days, to the point where parking space is becoming insufficient. The company is therefore preparing to develop dedicated areas and facilities for this passenger segment, along with a plan to expand the Samui airport passenger terminal from 2,000 square metres to 4,000 square metres and to seek approval to increase flight handling capacity from 50 flights a day to 73 flights a day. On the fleet side, the company plans to gradually take delivery of 12 new ATR 72-600 aircraft by 2028 and currently operates 22 aircraft.

Yuanta Securities Thailand says crude oil prices have started to soften after Iran signalled that diplomatic channels with the United States through intermediaries remain open, easing concerns over the Middle East conflict and providing a short-term positive sentiment boost for anti-commodity stocks. Stocks expected to benefit from this trend include TASCO, AOT, MINT, BA, MTC, BH, and BDMS.