SOFR

The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to a 31-year high of 1.25%, but the decision was not unanimous, with two policy board members dissenting, sending the US dollar sharply higher against the yen to 156.68 yen from 156.04 yen the previous day. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, slipped 0.03% to 100.222, while the euro rose to 1.1483 dollars from 1.1475 dollars. The British pound also strengthened to 1.3391 dollars from 1.3353 dollars. Investors remain focused on the risk that Japanese authorities could intervene in the market to support the yen, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan would not hesitate to take additional coordinated measures. Data from CME Group's FedWatch tool showed investors see roughly a 55% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at next month's meeting, up from 27% a week earlier.

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its October 27-28 meeting, an abrupt pivot from just days ago. Chief Economist David Mericle said in a note obtained by TheStreet that the revised forecast follows the Fed's unanimous 12-0 decision on Sept. 16, which lifted the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The quarterly dot plot released the same day showed a median year-end funds rate of 3.6%, consistent with one additional 25-basis-point hike from the current midpoint, with sixteen of 18 participating policymakers anticipating at least one more increase this year. Goldman called the meeting more hawkish than expected, citing the 16-2 majority projecting at least one more hike, a median neutral rate dot that rose from 3.06% to 3.25%, and Chairman Kevin Warsh describing the move three times as having removed a dose of accommodation. Goldman kept its terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%, while the CME Group FedWatch Tool puts the odds of another quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 at 53.1% and at least one additional hike by Dec. 9 at 87.5%.

Kansas City Fed President Schmid said on the 18th that he supports the Federal Reserve's rate hike this week. He characterized the move as a first step toward curbing inflation, and said recent indicators suggest inflation is trending above 3%. "Our inflation problem is not just energy," he said, noting that inflation excluding energy has also remained elevated, with price increases across a broad range of goods and services that are inconsistent with the Fed's price stability goal. He did not, however, comment on the need for further rate hikes.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors begin unwinding defensive positions around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to a Wednesday note. The analysts said Bitcoin investors remain more heavily hedged than gold investors, leaving room for the cryptocurrency to benefit disproportionately if that caution fades. Gold ETFs have already recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half, and short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, remains near its highest level this year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF is below its historical average. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million in net outflows on Sept. 15 and another $295.9 million on Sept. 16, before reversing to $159.5 million of inflows on Sept. 17, with IBIT alone bringing in $183.7 million that day. The call comes despite a difficult backdrop: on Sept. 15 the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed for cloture, and a day later the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday in a unanimous decision, a move ITR Economics senior economist Lauren Saidel-Baker called an inflection point in interest rate policy because it marks the start of a raising cycle rather than the cuts discussed as recently as January. Saidel-Baker told NYSE Live that the unanimous vote shows Fed Chair Kevin Warsh succeeded in building consensus on the committee, and that the vast majority of voting members project at least one more rate hike, possibly two, this year, with the tightening path potentially extending into 2027 and 2028. She said the inflation fight is not finished at just 25 basis points, citing an expanding money supply, lingering tariff pressures and heavy capital expenditure in the data center and AI segment, and flagged declining real incomes as the critical metric because they determine whether consumers can keep spending. With roughly two-thirds of GDP driven by consumer spending, she said households may increasingly draw on savings or credit as real incomes fall, and noted the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5% matters because market-set borrowing costs, not the federal funds rate, drive mortgage and credit card rates. Separately, Saidel-Baker commented on Warren Buffett's announcement that he is stepping down as chair of Berkshire Hathaway, calling his legacy a major mark on value investing and philanthropy.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 5% today as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve officials. As of 9:27 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.004%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.338%. Investors are watching today's comments from Fed officials, including Michelle Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, as well as Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, for signals about the officials' thinking on monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, 12-0, to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its meeting on September 16, in line with market expectations. The increase was the first in more than three years, or since July 2023, and since then the Fed had cut rates six times, by a total of 1.75%. The Dot Plot report showing Fed officials' projections indicated that 16 of 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. In addition, Fed officials expect rates to end 2026 and 2027 at the same level, while the Fed will cut rates once each in 2028 and 2029. Bob Edwards, chief investment officer of Edwards Asset Management, said that if the Fed raises rates again, it would likely happen at the December meeting, since the Fed is unlikely to announce a rate change at its October meeting, which takes place just days before the November 3 midterm elections, for fear the decision would be seen as politically motivated.

Prudential Financial's net investment income stands to benefit from higher interest rates after the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% on Sept. 16, 2026, citing still-elevated inflation. Because Prudential Financial holds a large general-account investment portfolio, higher rates can lift investment income as cash flows and maturities are reinvested at higher yields, a dynamic especially relevant to its Retirement and other spread businesses. In second-quarter 2026, the general-account fixed-maturity portfolio generated a 4.67% investment yield, up from 4.39% a year earlier, while fixed-maturity investment income rose to $3.79 billion from $3.41 billion. Higher rates could also make fixed annuities more attractive to customers seeking guaranteed yield and let Prudential Financial price new products using higher prevailing investment yields, though the benefit is gradual because much of the portfolio is invested for the long term. On the negative side, higher Treasury yields generally reduce the market value of existing fixed-income securities, and Prudential Financial notes that rising rates can create earnings and capital volatility, although its liability-management and hedging programs are designed to mitigate that exposure. Separately, Selective Insurance Group continues to benefit from elevated investment income supported by higher yields and growth in invested assets, while net investment income acts as a second earnings engine for Travelers after underwriting profit. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prudential Financial's third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 EPS has moved up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, over the past 30 days, and the same for full-year 2026 and 2027 EPS has moved up 2.3% and 0.9%.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to 3.75% to 4%, its first rate increase since July 2023. Interactive Brokers estimates that a 0.25% rise in U.S. dollar interest rates adds about $81 million a year to net interest income, if maturing investments roll over at the new, higher rates, according to its latest quarterly filing. That $81 million amounts to about 2% of annualized net interest income and about 1% of total net revenues, and a corresponding quarter-point rise in non-U.S. dollar benchmark rates would add an additional $38 million a year. Net interest income, the broker's biggest revenue line, totaled $1.06 billion in the second quarter, more than half of the company's $1.9 billion in total net revenues, and grew 23% year over year even as the average federal funds effective rate fell to 3.63% from 4.33%, driven by balance growth. Average customer credit balances climbed by $41.7 billion year over year, average margin loans grew by $35.7 billion, and average segregated cash and securities increased by $19 billion, a pace that works out to nearly $790 million a year, almost ten times what one quarter-point hike is expected to add.

This week, Bitcoin strengthened its downward trend following the US FOMC rate hike, military tensions between the United States and Iran, and the rejection of the US CLARITY Act's move to deliberation, with the price falling to around $75,000, or roughly 11.7 million yen. Next week, a stock market correction triggered by the US rate hike shift and the US-Iran situation are expected to remain a drag, with the market likely probing lower levels. On the other hand, expectations for large AI-related IPOs and practical progress in crypto asset regulation could help support the market. For the near-term price range, the upside is seen at $80,000, or about 12.48 million yen, while the downside is seen at $70,000, or about 10.92 million yen.

Grace Chen, Managing Director of Bitget, said that although the CLARITY Act failed to win approval in the U.S. Senate and the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, voted to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 0.25%, while signaling further hikes this year, factors seen as negative for Bitcoin and crypto, the price still held above the $75,000 support level. That indicates the market is focusing on other factors, and the recent correction has already absorbed the negative news. Grace Chen noted that Donald Trump's plan to direct the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, to issue crypto regulations on their own without relying on congressional mechanisms helps offset some of the disappointment over the CLARITY Act failing in the Senate. Meanwhile, the trend of reducing dollar holdings remains a key factor driving investors worldwide toward both gold and Bitcoin, and these two factors continue to push prices upward. In addition, on the occasion of Bitget's eighth anniversary, the company is preparing to fully enter the institutional client market. In the second quarter of 2026, the net asset value of institutional clients grew 45% compared with the previous year, and it has most recently become the first crypto trading platform to bring official market data from the Nasdaq stock exchange directly into its infrastructure related to U.S. equities.

Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council, said the US Federal Reserve's 0.25% interest rate increase is not a positive development, as it could raise risks in global financial markets. For Thailand, the Bank of Thailand needs to consider policy approaches to cope with the fallout, especially from the gap in interest rate levels between Thailand and other countries, and it must be monitored for how it affects capital flows and the country's ability to attract investment. Danucha said the key is that Thailand should focus on investment and long-term planning to prepare for volatility that may arise in the future. At the same time, it must prepare to handle domestic risk factors, including floods and drought, so as not to further weigh on the economy during a period of external volatility. As for rising energy prices that could affect transport costs, Thailand already has fund mechanisms and agencies with tools to cope. However, he acknowledged that the government may not be able to make cheap fuel available to everyone, since part of energy prices must follow market mechanisms, and the impact may fall especially on groups with day-to-day incomes. Therefore, the government, businesses, and the public must all prepare, and the government is pushing for an energy transition.

The Bank of Japan, or BOJ, raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, at its meeting on September 18, while signalling that it will continue raising interest rates and adjusting the degree of monetary easing, amid concern that inflation may rise above the BOJ's 2% target. The decision was not unanimous, as two of the nine board members, Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, voted against it. Both hold a stance favouring monetary easing and were appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this year. The BOJ stated that the rate hike was driven by the risk that inflation may rise above the 2% target and by the desire to keep underlying inflation stable at around 2%. It also announced it will monitor movements in foreign exchange markets and global demand related to artificial intelligence, or AI, in order to set the direction of future monetary policy. The rate hike comes after the US Federal Reserve, or Fed, raised interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its meeting on Wednesday, September 16, its first rate hike in three years, and signalled further increases this year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, or ECB, raised its policy rate by 0.25% at its meeting on September 10, its second rate hike this year, amid concerns about inflation. This marks the first time that the BOJ, the Fed and the ECB have all decided to raise interest rates in the same month.

InnovestX Securities (INVX) said rising bond yields in the third quarter to date will benefit life insurance companies through higher investment returns, stronger growth in endowment insurance premiums, and improved CSM and VNB. INVX maintained its OUTPERFORM rating on both BLA and TLI but prefers BLA due to its cheaper valuation and greater potential to benefit from rising bond yields. The 10-year Thai government bond yield rose 36 basis points quarter-to-date to 2.42%, in line with the rise in the 10-year US government bond yield to around 5%. BLA has an endowment insurance product proportion of about 60%, higher than TLI's roughly 45%, and is more sensitive to interest rates. In the first seven months of 2026, TLI's annualized first-year premiums fell 24% year-on-year, while BLA rose 10% year-on-year, compared with industry growth of 6% year-on-year. TLI's claims ratio fell 57 basis points year-on-year to 43.1%, and BLA's fell 563 basis points year-on-year to 50.2%. INVX expects TLI's profit to grow 11% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, while BLA is expected to grow 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027. It forecasts a 2026 dividend of 0.69 baht per share for TLI, representing a dividend yield of 6.0%, and 1.33 baht per share for BLA, representing a dividend yield of 5.4%.

Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun revealed that the government is preparing additional economic stimulus measures as a joint package of the economic ministries under the government's overall framework, to support economic figures in the final quarter of 2026. She said the measures are currently being drafted and discussed, but details cannot yet be disclosed because they must first be submitted to the Cabinet meeting. In addition to extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus program, the government will introduce further measures. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas has already said that the Thai Chuay Thai Plus program will be extended by another two months, through November 2026. Therefore, the economic stimulus measures must be considered in a way that covers the operations of every ministry. As for handling trade and domestic goods prices, which may be affected by the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.25%, Suphajee said the Commerce Ministry is already monitoring goods prices continuously, while matters concerning interest rates must be directed to Ekniti.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the SET Index today will move in a range of 1,570-1,600 points, with the market beginning to see buying return after passing the Fed meeting, which raised rates as expected. Although there is still a chance of further increases, the next direction will depend mainly on inflation data. Earlier, the SET Index closed at 1,583.34 points, up 20.61 points, or 1.32%, with foreign investors returning to net buy Thai stocks of 1.651 billion baht. A positive factor came from the Brent crude oil price falling to 104.8 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia diverted some oil exports through Oman and accelerated the restoration of the East-West pipeline, while the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell 8.8 basis points to close at 4.93%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England voted 6 to 3 to keep interest rates at 3.75% and temporarily halt active government bond sales. Today, the market must also monitor the Bank of Japan meeting, which is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%, along with remarks from Governor Kazuo Ueda, and late in the session there is FTSE Rebalancing, which is expected to support fund flows and increase volatility in individual stocks. The short-term strategy focuses on gradually accumulating stocks that have corrected sharply but whose fundamentals and earnings outlook remain strong, with today's standout stocks being DELTA and ADVANC.

The US 10-year bond yield has gradually declined to around 4.94%. Poon Panichpibool, a money and capital market strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krungthai Bank, noted that although market players still expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates roughly three more times by the middle of next year, the continued decline in crude oil prices and the gradual retreat of long-term bond yields in Europe, especially in the UK, after the Bank of England adjusted its quantitative tightening plan by ending long-bond sales, have helped support some easing in the US 10-year bond yield. He assessed that the US 10-year bond yield still risks volatile swings in the short term, but maintained the previous recommendation that market players can gradually buy long-dated US bonds, viewing that if the Fed can keep raising rates, it will eventually open the way for long-term bond yields to gradually decline, in line with an economic picture and inflation trend that may slow. The Fed also has a chance to cut rates somewhat in the period ahead, making gradual buying of long-dated US bonds on dips an attractive strategy at this time. As for gold, the pullback in long-term bond yields worldwide and in the dollar, in line with the decline in crude oil prices, helped support a rebound in gold prices. COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery rose, though gold prices remain pressured by bouts of dollar strength and the overall risk-on mood in financial markets, meaning that although gold prices have risen somewhat, they remain capped around 4,380 dollars per ounce.

The Fed's monetary policy committee voted unanimously 12-0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00%. The Dot Plot report indicates that 16 of the 18 Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year, which means rates of 4.00-4.25% are fairly certain. Kan Hataisattha, Head of Investment Strategy for the Retail Client Research Group at CGS International Securities Thailand, said the Fed stressed that 2% inflation is its absolute mandate, with the committee having clear objectives on maximum employment, price stability, and U.S. economic growth. He noted that geopolitical factors, especially the situation between Iran and the United States, have contributed to a shift in the Fed's outlook. He also said rates should stop around 4.50% at most, but if they rise to 5.00-5.25%, it would be time to stay on the sidelines.

With the Federal Reserve deciding on September 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points and signaling further tightening, Ethereum plunged 5% on Tuesday to a two-week low of $2,358, then rebounded about 2% on Wednesday to roughly $2,400 to $2,450. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range for the policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, and in its summary of economic projections, a majority of 12 of the 18 participating policymakers forecast another 25bp hike by the end of 2026, while the median core inflation forecast was raised to 3.4%. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a second 25bp hike has risen to 66% from 43% just 24 hours before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Three price levels where past large whale trades clustered are cited: 8,077 trades on August 21 at a median price of about $2,434, 8,814 trades on June 5 at an average price of about $1,635, and 7,644 trades on May 6 at an average price of about $2,293. A clear break below $2,434 would expose the next whale activity zone. Prediction markets put the probability of reaching a $2,750 target at 69% and the $3,000 psychological threshold at 48%, while the probability of falling below $2,000 stands at just 18%.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep its policy rate at 3.75% at yesterday's meeting, its sixth hold this year, even as inflation remains above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00%. The US State Department approved the sale of 48 F-35 stealth fighter jets along with related equipment to Saudi Arabia, with a total value of about 24.3 billion US dollars. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy disclosed that the oil tanker Trend, which flies the flag of Togo, was attacked and forced to stop after attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz illegally.

The Bank of Japan will announce the outcome of its monetary policy meeting today, September 18, and the market consensus is that it will raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. In a Reuters survey, 66 of 68 economists expected another hike, and a move just three months after the June increase to 1.00% would be seen as an acceleration in the pace of monetary normalization. At the FOMC meeting on September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, a unanimous 12-0 vote marking its first hike since July 2023. If both Japan and the United States raise rates by 0.25%, the interest rate differential would remain roughly unchanged on a simple calculation, so the yen will not necessarily continue to strengthen. What the market is watching is not the rate hike itself, but how far Governor Kazuo Ueda will hint at further increases in October, December, or early 2027, and a rapid yen appreciation could pressure both dollar-denominated and yen-denominated bitcoin through an unwind of yen carry trades.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points under Chair Kevin Warsh, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous decision that marked its first rate increase since 2023 and a reversal after three consecutive cuts had lowered the range to 3.5%-3.75% by December 2025. Fed officials weighed the risk that inflation could stay high for longer, driven by rising fuel prices from the Iran war and ongoing effects of tariffs, especially since the job market was still strong, and the Fed also lowered its unemployment-rate projection to 4.1%, with another rate increase possible before year-end. President Trump strongly criticized the decision, arguing U.S. interest rates should be 1% or lower because of the country's strong credit standing and accelerating investment activity, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq all declined in yesterday's trading session. Insurers appear broadly well-positioned to benefit from the shift, with life and annuity insurers likely to gain the most as higher rates let them reinvest maturing bonds and deploy new premium inflows at more attractive yields, while property and casualty insurers face a more mixed impact because energy-related inflation and tariffs could raise automobile repair, construction and medical costs. Reinsurance Group of America and Lincoln National could gain from significant exposure to spread-based annuity products and long-duration bond portfolios, while Travelers' large investment portfolio could provide a more modest boost to investment income.

Goldman Sachs reversed its Federal Reserve rate forecast twice in four days, telling clients on the morning of September 15, 2026 that it expected a hike the next day but not another one as its baseline, then shifting within hours of the September 16 decision to call for another 25-basis-point increase in October. The second change followed the Fed's updated rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on financial conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and the dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year while four projected two additional increases. The Fed also raised its 2026 headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation forecast to 3.7% and lifted its core inflation forecast. Bitcoin is trading near $76,300, up roughly 18% over the past month but about 34% below its level a year ago, while XRP is near $1.29 after gaining roughly 28% over the past month and remains about 56% lower year over year. An October hike would reach markets with less time to adjust than after September's fully priced move, and the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week for the first time since 2007.

The National Association of Realtors reported on the 17th that its pending home sales index for August rose 0.3% from the previous month to 71.2, an increase that defied economists' expectations of a 0.6% decline compiled by Reuters. On a year-over-year basis, the index fell 4.7%, with gains in the South and West offset by declines in the Northeast and Midwest. Mortgage rates that remain elevated are keeping would-be buyers out of the market, and this increase is likely to prove temporary. The Federal Reserve on the 16th moved to raise interest rates for the first time since July 2023, and according to Freddie Mac data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.76% last week from 6.71% the week before, hitting its highest level in more than a year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, noted that nationwide, current contract signings are running about 30% below the levels seen in the years leading up to the pandemic.

Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh announced a 25 basis point benchmark interest rate hike, taking the funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first rate increase since 2023, with Warsh indicating another round of rate hikes before the end of 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the key interest rate, citing elevated inflation, the ongoing Middle East crisis and resulting rise in oil prices, a stable U.S. labor market and solid economic activity supported by resilient consumer spending. Higher borrowing costs can be a headwind for the capital-intensive utilities sector, which relies heavily on external financing to fund infrastructure investments, pressuring margins and potentially constraining dividend payouts. Among utilities better positioned to withstand higher rates, Exelon Corporation, PG&E Corporation and Centuri Holdings, Inc. each carry a VGM Score of either A or B and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Exelon plans to invest $41.7 billion over 2026-2029, PG&E plans to invest $12.4 billion in 2026 and $73 billion over the 2026-2030 period, and Centuri plans to invest $75-$90 million in 2026.

Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, blaming a 10-year Treasury yield near 5% for compressing valuation multiples rather than any deterioration in earnings. Yardeni, who had been making one of the loudest bullish calls on the Street, moved the old 8,400 target to mid-next year and noted that 7,900 would still print a record high. The 10-year Treasury sat at 5.01% and the 30-year at 5.35% on September 16, 2026, right in the zone Yardeni flagged as multiple-compressing, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed at $754.13, down 2.4% over the past month but up 10.59% year to date. Yardeni said earnings are going to be fantastic, and total U.S. corporate profits reached $4.8 trillion in the second quarter with reported year-over-year growth of 22.8%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. He reads the Summary of Economic Projections as the opening of a hiking cycle, with another move possible this year and one more next year, while the policy rate's upper bound stands at 3.75% and the 10-year minus 2-year spread has narrowed to 0.27%, its lowest in the past year.

Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 last week, matching the lowest level since 1969, while continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million, their lowest tally since May 2023. The reading came in below the 207,000 expected and 10,000 fewer than the prior week's unrevised 206,000. Stocks rebounded after yesterday's sell-off, with the Dow up 626 points, the Nasdaq up 468 and the S&P 500 up 95, gains of 1.2 to 1.6 percent, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.4 percent. The rally followed the first FOMC move of 2026, a 25 basis point increase to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, after which Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give guidance on the path of rates. Housing starts for August came in at 1.275 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, below the 1.3 million expected, as single-family starts rose 7.6 percent but multi-family fell 22 percent, and building permits slipped to 1.39 million from July's unrevised 1.43 million. The Philly Fed manufacturing survey registered 37.8 for September, its third straight month above 37.

Gold prices rebounded, drawing support from falling oil prices and a weaker dollar. As of 9:46 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was up 15.20 dollars, or 0.35%, at 4,362.05 dollars an ounce, while COMEX December gold futures rose 19.30 dollars, or 0.44%, to 4,406.80 dollars an ounce. The drop in oil prices eased investors' inflation concerns, while the weaker dollar boosted gold's appeal and made futures cheaper for holders of other currencies. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at yesterday's meeting, the first increase in more than three years, or since July 2023, after which the Fed had cut rates six times by a total of 1.75%. The Dot Plot report indicated that 16 of 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year.

The SEC rejected a nineteenth XRP short ETF while $1.11 billion flowed out of regulated spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs over just 48 hours. The two-day institutional outflow followed a synchronized shock: an unexpected Federal Reserve rate hike and the Senate's blocking of the CLARITY Act, which together triggered panic selling. The crypto market is now attempting a fragile relief bounce this morning as it tries to stabilize after the large-scale exit of institutional capital.

Barrick Mining Corporation shares rose 1.2% to $43.06 in pre-market trading after coverage was initiated with a Buy rating, with the source of that rating not identified in the announcement. The new recommendation coincided with Bernstein lowering its price target for Barrick to $56.50 from $61, a figure that remains above the pre-market share price. Separately, Barrick reported that second-quarter 2026 net earnings increased by approximately 50% compared with the same period a year earlier, though the company did not announce new financial guidance. The moves came as gold prices recovered above $4,300 per ounce after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase in three years, with policymakers indicating the possibility of another increase before the end of 2026. Major US equity indices also advanced, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%, the Dow Jones up 0.8% and the Nasdaq up 1.1%.

Kasikorn Research Center reported that the baht touched its weakest level in a month and a half at 33.43 baht per US dollar before closing at 33.34 baht per dollar, compared with yesterday's close of 33.28 baht per dollar. The baht weakened past the 33.40 baht per dollar level in early trading after the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting, at which the Fed took a hawkish stance and voted to raise its policy rate to 3.75-4.00%, while signaling one more rate hike before the end of 2026. However, the baht pared its losses and recovered somewhat in the afternoon, tracking global gold prices, in contrast to global oil prices, which slipped on reports that Saudi Arabia will deliver additional crude oil via Oman, helping ease concerns about tight supply. As for fund flows today, foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks and bonds to the tune of 1.651 billion baht and 623 million baht, respectively. For the baht's trading range tomorrow, an initial estimate is 33.20-33.50 baht per dollar. Key factors to watch include the outcome of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, foreign fund flows, the situation in the Middle East, and US industrial production data for August.

UBS told investors Thursday that the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate increase should not derail the equity rally, even as policymakers signaled more tightening to come. The Fed unanimously raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, with Chair Kevin Warsh saying officials had "removed a dose of accommodation" and that broad financial conditions were hard to describe as restrictive. Despite the hawkish tone, with 16 of 18 officials now expecting at least one more hike this year, UBS said much of the tightening is already priced in, noting markets had braced for nearly four increases over the cycle versus UBS's forecast of two. The bank pointed to the Fed's upgraded growth forecasts and strong August retail sales, which rose 1.2%, as evidence the tightening is manageable, and forecast industry AI capital spending rising to $1.2 trillion in 2027 from $900 billion. UBS also forecast S&P 500 profit growth of 25% in 2026 and 14% in 2027, recommending diversified exposure while avoiding rate-sensitive concentration.

The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its meeting on Wednesday, September 16. President Donald Trump told reporters after the meeting that he still has confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh but wants the Fed to cut rates to 1% or lower. This was the first rate hike since 2023. Meanwhile, Axios reported, citing sources, that Trump is scheduled to meet with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council in New York on Tuesday, September 22, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to discuss next steps in the war with Iran, with a focus expected on post-war strategy. Nikkei reported that Japan and the United States are discussing the construction of a semiconductor manufacturing plant, one of the projects under a 550 billion dollar investment agreement. The project is expected to be worth between 2 trillion and 3 trillion yen, or 12.9 billion to 19.3 billion dollars, and will be carried out by GlobalFoundries, a major US chipmaker. The Financial Times reported, citing sources, that the European Union wants China to limit hybrid vehicle exports from China to the European market to around 15%. If China does not act, the EU will take measures itself to prevent its industrial manufacturing base from shrinking.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority on the 17th raised its policy base rate by 0.25% to 4.25%, following the US Federal Reserve's rate hike. The HKMA said the widening interest rate gap between Hong Kong and the United States could spur carry trades and push the Hong Kong dollar toward the weak end of its trading band. The Hong Kong dollar fell to 7.8456 per US dollar in afternoon trading, hitting a one-month low. The currency is pegged to the US dollar in a narrow range of 7.75 to 7.85, and has been gradually drifting toward the weak end of that band in recent weeks. Chief Executive Eddie Yue told reporters that the interest rate gap between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar has widened, and carry trades could weaken the Hong Kong dollar toward the weak side of its permitted trading range. Samuel Tse, an interest rate strategist at DBS, said in a report that he does not expect HKMA intervention, and noted that a weaker US dollar on fiscal concerns, as well as the government's new five-year plan aimed at supporting the economy, are expected to underpin the Hong Kong dollar.