Experts say crude oil prices will stay high until 2027 if the war drags on

CommodityMacro
โดย thunhoon.com·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Analysts estimate crude oil prices will remain elevated until 2027 if the Middle East conflict continues, with Brent crude recently at about 91.44 US dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at about 85.45 dollars per barrel. If the war de-escalates, oil prices could fall to a range of 65 to 76 dollars per barrel, or an average of about 70 dollars in 2027. The Energy Policy Executive Committee has approved using excess benefits from July 2026 refining margins to cut the ex-refinery price of high-speed diesel by 2.40 baht per litre for another 31 days, the sixth such move, totalling more than 17 billion baht. This is expected to hit net profits of refinery groups in the third quarter of 2026 more than in the second quarter, with PTT Global Chemical affected most at about 4 billion baht, followed by Bangchak Corporation at about 2.98 billion baht, Thai Oil at about 2.93 billion baht, IRPC at about 2.5 billion baht, and Star Petroleum Refining at about 1.4 billion baht. Analysts recommend short-term speculative buying in line with oil price trends and waiting to gradually accumulate when the war eases, viewing PTT Exploration and Production as a direct beneficiary of higher crude prices while PTT benefits indirectly from the group's refining business.

Impact on stocks 7

Energy Transition & Power Demand▼ · 3 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Government approved cutting ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht/litre for 31 days, reducing refining margins and net profits, with Thai Oil affected by about 2.93 billion baht.

Energy± Mixed · 3 stocks
IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Government approved cutting ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht/litre for 31 days, reducing refining margins and net profits.

Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Government approved cutting ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht/litre for 31 days, reducing refining margins and net profits, with Star Petroleum affected by about 1.4 billion baht.

Materials▼ · 1 stocks

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