Foreign brokers raise targets on six energy stocks, see petrochemical recovery arriving sooner

Analyst
โดย thunhoon.com·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Morgan Stanley has raised its target prices on six Thai energy and refinery stocks: PTT to 44.90 baht from 39.40 baht, TOP to 87 baht from 70 baht, PTTGC to 59 baht from 43 baht, OR to 14.60 baht from 14.30 baht, BCP to 65.70 baht from 51 baht, and SPRC to 19.70 baht from 12.90 baht. The moves reflect a positive view on the outlook for Thailand's energy and refinery sector, especially for SPRC, PTTGC, TOP and BCP, which received significant target-price increases. Sorachai Pittayapruek, director of analysis at Krungsri Securities, assesses that the petrochemical industry is entering the early stage of a new recovery cycle after facing oversupply pressure since 2023. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a catalyst for faster market rebalancing, because some plants that already had plans to reduce or halt production can use the situation as a reason to stop operations and cut product deliveries, removing a large amount of supply from the market during the crisis. However, once the Hormuz closure situation eases, product spreads may correct in the short term in the third quarter of 2026, but they are unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2025, because not all of the old plant capacity that has been gradually shut down can come back to the market. Sorachai estimates that the petrochemical industry has a chance to reach balance sooner than previously expected. He had earlier estimated that the market could reach equilibrium in 2029, assuming plastic resin demand grows by an average of 1 to 2 percent per year and no severe economic recession hits. Once excess supply declines to the point of balance, producers' pricing power will increase, opening the opportunity for product spreads to sustainably stand above 500 US dollars per tonne. His recommended standout stocks are PTTGC and SCC in the petrochemical group, with BCP as the top pick in the refinery group, along with a buy recommendation on IVL and hold recommendations on SPRC and TOP.

Impact on stocks 8

Energy Transition & Power Demand · 3 stocks
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Morgan Stanley raised its target price on Thai Oil (TOP) to 87 baht from 70 baht, reflecting a positive outlook.

Electrification & Mobility · 1 stocks
Materials · 1 stocks
Energy · 1 stocks
Critical Materials & Supply Chain · 1 stocks
Climate Adaptation & Water · 1 stocks

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