InnovestX outlines three Fed meeting scenarios and recommends defensive stocks

MacroAnalystDigital Finance
โดย HoonVision·USTH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

InnovestX Securities has assessed three possible outcomes for tomorrow's US Federal Reserve meeting, after US August inflation figures came in close to expectations. The Consumer Price Index stood at 3.4% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, while Core CPI slowed from 2.5% to 2.4% year-on-year. However, the month-on-month figures came in slightly above expectations, and the overall inflation level remains above the Fed's target, keeping the market concerned about the interest rate path. The first scenario is a hold, which is the base case, but the market assigns it only about 10% probability, while nearly 90% expect a rate hike. The second scenario is a single Dovish Hike with no signal of further increases, which could pressure the SET to pull back in the short term before building a base. The third scenario is a Hawkish Hike with a signal of further increases, in which case the Dot Plot must be watched to see whether it reflects a higher rate path for next year. For Thai equity portfolios, InnovestX recommends two defensive themes for low-risk investors. The first is a Domestic Play, focusing on big-cap stocks with domestic revenue, such as CPALL, CPN, CRC, BDMS, BCH, PR9 and CHG. The second is a High Dividend Play, stocks expected to deliver a consistent dividend yield above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT and LHSC. For investors with a high risk appetite, the firm recommends a Tactical strategy based on the meeting outcome. If the Fed holds rates, it sees a Risk-on play in MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR, AP, SIRI, DELTA, HANA and KCE. If it is a Dovish Hike, it recommends buying on dips. If it is a Hawkish Hike, it recommends raising cash holdings and waiting for a market correction over roughly three to six months before considering groups that benefit from high interest rates and a weak baht, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, TLI, BLA, TU and ITC.

Impact on stocks 27

Financials▲ · 7 stocks
Srisawad Power 1979 PCL
SAWAD
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

SAWAD is listed among the Risk-on tactical plays if the Fed holds rates, linked to the Fed meeting outcome.

Real Estate▲ · 5 stocks
AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited
AP
± Mixedrelevance

Listed in InnovestX's recommended defensive Domestic Play and Risk-on tactical plays, but no company-specific development; recommendation is contingent on Fed outcome.

Health Care▲ · 3 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
± Mixedrelevance

Named in InnovestX's High Dividend Play list (yield above 5%), a portfolio recommendation rather than a company-specific event.

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 2 stocks
Semiconductors▲ · 2 stocks
Consumer Staples▲ · 2 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Electrification & Mobility▲ · 1 stocks
Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks
PTT Public Company Limited
PTT
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

PTT is included in InnovestX's High Dividend Play defensive theme recommended amid Fed rate uncertainty.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
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