Valero Energy Corporation

Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy have each surged more than 150% year to date, yet both now trade above their consensus analyst price targets, prompting a Hold plurality rating on each. Marathon is up 157.1% to $413.20 and Valero is up 152.4% to $404.84, against consensus targets of $370.17 and $355.47 respectively. The rally was driven by crack spreads that roughly doubled in 2026 after Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out more than 2.8 million barrels of Russian refining capacity, with Marathon management estimating over 9 million barrels per day of global capacity was down, roughly 4 million barrels per day above historical norms. The two refiners delivered combined profits of around $8.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, but analysts already model a steep 2027 earnings drop, to $33.95 for Marathon and $31.21 for Valero, making the 13x and 14x forward P/E multiples look like peak-cycle value traps. Marathon's majority stake in MPLX supports 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026 and 2027, while Valero benefits from a reopened gasoline arbitrage that has left net U.S. gasoline imports down about 400,000 barrels a day; Valero returned $2.6 billion to shareholders in the second quarter and Marathon returned over $2.8 billion with $6.1 billion remaining on its buyback authorization.

Valero Energy ended its latest trading session at $403.28, up 1.57% while the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, the Dow lost 1.21% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.01%. The oil refiner has gained 13.42% over the past month, outpacing the Oils-Energy sector's 3.72% gain and the S&P 500's 2.43% loss. Valero plans to report earnings on October 22, 2026, with analysts projecting $18.09 per share, a 394.26% year-over-year increase, on revenue of $38.54 billion, up 19.81%. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates call for earnings of $46.41 per share and revenue of $150.52 billion, changes of +337.42% and +22.68% respectively. The consensus EPS projection has moved 14.24% higher in the past 30 days, and Valero Energy currently carries a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).

Forgent Power Solutions shares jumped 9.5% after the company reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents. Skyworks Solutions shares surged 13.6% as CEO Philip Brace expressed confidence that the $22 billion Qorvo merger could close by late September or early October, while Qorvo shares advanced 9.3%. Axon Enterprise shares slipped 9.8% after announcing plans for a $1 billion debt issuance, adding to investor concerns over borrowing costs. Valero Energy shares rose 3.7% as surging crude prices boosted energy stocks amid escalating Middle East supply concerns.

UBS raised its price target on Valero Energy Corporation from $355 to $450 on September 8 while keeping a Buy rating on the shares, a revision that implies nearly 17% upside from current levels and sits above the stock's all-time high of over $393 reached earlier this month. The call rests on expectations that unusually strong global refining margins will persist longer than previously assumed, as damaged or idled refineries take time to return to full operations and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries further constrain worldwide capacity. Valero's COO, Gary Simmons, said an arbitrage opportunity for jet fuel exports to Europe has reopened, and the company expects jet fuel margins to improve over the remainder of the third quarter as refiners shift to winter diesel specifications. The refiner returned $2.6 billion to shareholders in its highest-ever second quarter, up sharply from $695 million a year earlier, and TD Cowen's Jason Gabelman expects Valero to repurchase about 20% of its market value between the third quarter and the end of next year. UBS's move signals confidence that elevated crack spreads can support further gains, though a pullback in refining margins remains the key risk to earnings expectations and the share price.

Shares of US refiners Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Marathon Petroleum have more than doubled this year, outperforming ExxonMobil and Chevron, which each gained about 40% in 2026, as the global fuel market tightens far more than crude oil markets. More than 7 million barrels per day of refined product flows are offline in the Middle East and Russia, pushing product cracks to record highs and boosting refining margins. Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, and Valero all reported consensus-beating second-quarter earnings and expect high margins through the end of the year and possibly all through next year. Global refinery throughputs hit a summer peak of 81.4 million barrels per day in August, up 960,000 bpd month on month, but that peak was 4.2 million bpd lower than a year ago, with losses spread across the Middle East, Russia, and crude-importing economies in Asia, the International Energy Agency said in its September monthly report. RBN Energy analysts noted that global crude markets are not terribly short of crude, but the world is struggling to refine enough crude into middle distillates, with US distillate stocks in August on track for their lowest end-of-month level since April 2005 and the lowest for the month since 1951.

Crude settled around $100 a barrel on Friday after Iranian state media reported Tehran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf Cooperation Council diplomats expected to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday over a possible temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the strait. The meeting is the single most consequential item on this week's calendar, which also includes the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, the American Petroleum Institute and EIA weekly inventory reports, a Federal Reserve interest rate decision with updated FOMC economic projections, and August industrial production. The International Energy Agency now forecasts global oil demand will fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026, roughly 940,000 barrels a day deeper than a month earlier, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast by $8 to around $90 a barrel and expects prices to average $77 by the second quarter of 2027 as shut-in Gulf production restarts; OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a fifth consecutive time. The IEA reported global oil production fell 1.6 million barrels a day month over month to 100.1 million in August, with more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output still shut in, total supply set to fall 5.7 million barrels a day this year, and global observed inventories down 507 million barrels since the war began. Refined products are now the tightest part of the market, with global refinery throughput at a summer peak of 81.4 million barrels a day in August, up 960,000 month over month but 4.2 million barrels a day below a year earlier, and Atlantic Basin refining margins at record levels. Among companies cited, Valero Energy Corporation reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $3.7 billion and returned $2.6 billion to shareholders, Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported a refining and marketing margin that rose from $17.58 to $36.33 per barrel year over year and returned more than $2.8 billion to shareholders, Phillips 66 said refining fundamentals were very tight and getting tighter, Frontline plc reported second-quarter VLCC time charter equivalent earnings of $152,700 per day and a quarterly dividend of $2.61 per share, and Equinor ASA's Alex Grant said there are quite a few bottlenecks all at the same time.

President Donald Trump called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop attacking Russian diesel infrastructure, arguing the campaign is contributing to fuel shortages, the Associated Press reported Sunday. "Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump told reporters Sunday while attending the Irish Open at his Doonbeg golf club, adding, "Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he's causing a shortage of diesel fuel." Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian refineries and other energy facilities to disrupt an industry that generates revenue and supplies fuel for Moscow's war effort, reducing Russian fuel production and contributing to domestic rationing despite Russia's status as a major oil exporter. The comments followed another large exchange of drones, with Ukraine saying it struck a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region while Russian attacks injured at least nine people in Odesa and hit western Ukraine near the Polish border. The Kremlin separately indicated that another round of U.S.-mediated peace talks could take place as soon as October, although Russia and Ukraine remain divided over territory and other central issues.

Valero Energy's refining profitability is being supported by tight global refined-product markets, with as much as 5 million barrels of global refining capacity offline due to Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, according to the company's latest earnings call. Valero's coastal refinery network, concentrated on the Gulf Coast, can process a wide range of crude qualities and shift product yields between light products and distillates, letting it capitalize on elevated refined-product prices, with U.S. average diesel prices recently reaching a record high. Low global light-product inventories are expected to support refining fundamentals, as inventory normalization could extend well into 2027. Other refining players positioned to benefit include Par Pacific Holdings, which operates refining capacity of 219,000 barrels per day plus 13 million barrels of storage, and PBF Energy, which runs six refineries with a combined throughput capacity of 1 million barrels per day. Valero shares have jumped 157.7% over the past year versus a 122.5% gain for its industry composite, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Valero's 2026 earnings has been revised upward over the past seven days; Valero, Par Pacific and PBF each carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is directing capital toward refinery projects to improve yields, flexibility, and costs, with 2026 capital spending expected at $1.5 billion excluding MPLX, allocating roughly 65% to value-enhancing investments and 35% to sustaining operations. Completed projects include the Garyville jet flexibility project in the first quarter and the El Paso yield improvement and Robinson product flexibility projects in the second quarter, with Robinson adding about 10,000 barrels per day of jet fuel production. Management targets returns of 25% or higher on these investments. By year-end 2027, MPC expects to complete a 90,000-barrel-per-day distillate hydrotreater at Galveston Bay, and at Garyville, feedstock optimization should lift crude throughput by 30,000 barrels per day, plus add 10,000 barrels per day of export-premium gasoline capacity. Valero Energy plans about $2 billion in 2026 capital investments, with $1.7 billion for sustaining operations and a $230 million FCC Unit optimization at St. Charles expected online in the third quarter of 2026. HF Sinclair's El Dorado vacuum furnace project supports up to 10,000 barrels per day of additional heavy crude processing, on track for completion during the fall turnaround. Marathon Petroleum shares have rallied 145.2% year to date, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is $47.23 per share, indicating 341.4% year-over-year growth.

U.S. stock futures fell early Tuesday, with Dow futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.1%, as markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday amid U.S.-Iran tensions and U.S.-Canada trade disputes. Energy stocks rose in premarket trading after Iran warned it could target Gulf oil and gas infrastructure, with Exxon Mobil up 1.8%, Chevron up 1.7%, ConocoPhillips up 1.6%, Diamondback Energy and Marathon Petroleum each up 1.1%, and Valero Energy up 1.6%. Eaton shares gained more than 3% after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $515 from $450, citing strong sales growth and expected margin improvement. Everpure rose 2.5% after being added to the S&P 500, replacing Builders FirstSource, while Shake Shack rose about 1% after RBC initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and an $89 price target. Old Dominion Freight Line climbed 1.3% after reporting revenue per day rose 12.4% in August compared with the same month last year.

Valero Energy closed at $370.69, up 1.26%, beating the S&P 500's 1.06% gain. The stock has risen 21.07% over the past month, outpacing the Oils-Energy sector's 4.7% and the S&P 500's 2.46%. For the upcoming earnings report, analysts project EPS of $15, a 309.84% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $36.53 billion, up 13.55%. Full-year estimates call for earnings of $40.7 per share and revenue of $146.63 billion, representing increases of 283.6% and 19.52%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has risen 3.85% over the past month, and Valero holds a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.99, in line with its industry, and a PEG ratio of 0.42, compared to the industry's 0.34.

Piper Sandler has lifted its price target on Chevron to a Street-high $243 from $207, part of a broader round of estimate increases across its integrated oil and refiner coverage driven by stronger crude and refining margins. The firm kept its overweight rating on the stock. Analyst John Royall raised the third-quarter Brent forecast to $88 per barrel from $80, and the fourth-quarter forecast to $90, citing continued supply issues on the diesel side lasting well into next year. The changes pushed Piper Sandler's estimates about 12% and 27% ahead of Wall Street's 2026 third-quarter and 2027 EBITDA forecasts for the majors, and roughly 15% and 36% above consensus for the refiners. Piper Sandler also lifted price targets for BP to $46, MPC to $462, PSX to $264, SHEL to $100, TTE to $93, VLO to $435, and XOM to $185.

U.S. diesel futures surged Tuesday to their highest levels since April 2022, with the diesel crack spread hitting a record above $106 per barrel, as the global fuel crunch persists. Retail diesel prices at $5.63 per gallon are near the highest since the Iran war began, and analysts warn they could soon breach the $5.80 record set in 2022. Front-month Nymex ULSD for October delivery soared 6% to $4.6773 per gallon, its fifth straight daily gain, while RBOB gasoline rose 1.9% to $3.1351 per gallon. The spike came as President Trump met with refining executives, including leaders from Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Phillips 66, Chevron, PBF Energy, and Delek US, pressing them to boost domestic fuel production. Executives blamed federal biofuel blending requirements for raising pump prices. Crude oil futures also jumped more than $4 per barrel, settling at a five-week high, as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities raised concerns about flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Goldman Sachs has sharply raised its outlook for diesel refining margins, signaling that the global fuel squeeze could persist well into 2027 and deliver another earnings tailwind for refiners such as Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66. The bank more than doubled its forecasts as wars in the Middle East and Ukraine disrupt refining capacity, tighten inventories, and keep diesel prices elevated. Goldman now expects the profit from producing a barrel of diesel over Brent crude to average $63 per barrel in the U.S. and $49 in Europe next year, sharply above its previous forecasts of $27 and $19, respectively. The supply squeeze is unusually severe, with refinery outages running 60% above seasonal norms and inventories continuing to fall. Russia, normally the world's second-largest diesel exporter, has extended its diesel export ban through September 30 after Ukrainian attacks disrupted domestic refineries. Middle Eastern disruptions are compounding the shortage, as Asian refined-fuel imports fell to 5.1 million barrels per day in August, roughly 2 million barrels below pre-war levels, while diesel refining margins in Singapore have tripled since the conflict began. Goldman warned that a full recovery in runs requires global geopolitical de-escalation.

Exxon Mobil rose about 2.1% to $160.03 on Monday as Brent crude surpassed $90 per barrel, but the company was excluded from President Donald Trump's Tuesday meeting with refiners amid rising gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. The exclusion follows CEO Darren Woods' January comment that Venezuela remains uninvestable, prompting Trump to signal Exxon could be shut out of the country while Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, and Valero attend the meeting. The talks will cover refining capacity, biofuel mandates, and fuel-shipping costs, with Exxon absent. Exxon generated $17.2 billion in free cash flow in its latest quarter, but its stock trades 26.54% above its GF Value estimate of $126.47, indicating a hot valuation and thin margin for disappointment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 374.09 points, or 0.70%, at 53,185.90 on Monday, as investors worried that rising oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East could push inflation higher and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 fell 25.62 points, or 0.33%, to 7,686.14, and the Nasdaq dropped 31.53 points, or 0.12%, to 26,370.89. WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged more than 2.5% after the U.S. struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, marking the first attack on targets inside Iran since late July. Iran retaliated by attacking a U.S. base in Jordan. President Trump vowed to respond to Iran and threatened to destroy Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export terminal. The rise in oil prices pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, and markets grew concerned about inflation and the prospect of Fed rate hikes. This followed comments from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who signaled a possible rate hike at the September meeting, saying at Jackson Hole that he needs to be confident that underlying inflation is clearly and sufficiently moving toward its target. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, led by a 1.63% drop in communication services, while energy rose 2.1% in line with oil prices, with Halliburton and Valero Energy up 1.9%. Amazon shares fell 2.5% after the FTC and 22 states sued the company over allegedly unfair practices in digital advertising auctions. Investors are watching Friday's U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of 58,000 jobs after a decline of 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.

Phillips 66 is close to achieving its 2027 target of about $5.50 per barrel in annual refining adjusted controllable costs, having reported $5.57 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026. The company is pursuing over 200 refining initiatives focused on energy efficiency, process simplification, reliability, and utilization, with projects at Bayway, Ferndale, and Wood River each expected to cut annual operating expenses by more than $1 million. Phillips 66 also reported 96% crude-capacity utilization and an 86% clean-product yield in the second quarter, supporting its cost-reduction program. Among peers, Marathon Petroleum reported second-quarter refining operating costs of $5.72 per barrel, up from $5.34 a year earlier, and expects costs to moderate to $5.60 in the third quarter. Valero Energy's refining operating expenses fell to $4.70 per barrel in the second quarter from $4.91 a year earlier, and the company is advancing a $230-million optimization project at St. Charles expected to start in the third quarter of 2026.

President Trump's new energy agreement with Venezuela grants U.S. companies majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan reserves, pushing total U.S.-accessible proven reserves to roughly 111 billion barrels, or about 7.1% of the world's 1.57 trillion barrels. The deal covers 17 strategic fields in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo, with Venezuelan officials projecting over $100 billion in private investment and $209 billion in eventual tax revenue. Chevron, which already operates the largest U.S. footprint in the country and accounts for a substantial share of current output near 1.25 million barrels per day, is positioned as the clearest near-term beneficiary, while service providers like SLB have secured early contracts. However, Venezuela's extra-heavy crude requires specialized refining and major infrastructure repairs, so production gains will take years rather than months, and gas prices won't fall overnight. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners like Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy stand to benefit from more reliable volumes, but the full production impact will unfold over years.

Valero Energy reported sharply higher adjusted earnings and revenues for the second quarter of 2026, supported by a constructive refining backdrop and a top Zacks Rank #1 rating, which together are reshaping its investment narrative. The company's board on July 16, 2026, lifted its equity buyback authorization to US$15,000 million, a move that could amplify per-share gains if refining margins hold. However, analysts' forecasts project a 1.5% yearly revenue decline to $112.7 billion by 2029, with earnings rising to $4.7 billion from $4.2 billion today, implying a fair value of $267.83—a 24% downside to the current price. Pessimistic scenarios see revenue falling to about US$86.9 billion and earnings to roughly US$2.7 billion, highlighting risks from policy shifts and asset impairments. Despite the strong results, investors should weigh these uncertainties against the improved earnings outlook.

Valero Energy has built a sizeable cash cushion, strengthening its capacity to reward shareholders while retaining flexibility through commodity cycles. As of June 30, 2026, Valero held $7.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, well above its long-term $4-$5 billion target. In the first half of 2026, VLO returned $3.6 billion to stockholders through buybacks and dividends, up from $1.3 billion in the same period of 2025, with second-quarter returns alone totaling $2.6 billion. The surplus cash leaves share repurchases as an important avenue for additional capital returns, especially since management sees no immediate pressure to reduce leverage further. The board added a new $5 billion buyback authorization in July 2026 on top of $1.42 billion remaining under its February program, and the quarterly dividend rose to $1.20 per share from $1.13 a year earlier. Cash flow will also benefit from the $230 million St. Charles FCC optimization project, boosting high-value gasoline output, while improved crude purchasing economics and expected insurance coverage for Port Arthur repair spending are expected to protect cash generation. Peers Marathon Petroleum and HF Sinclair are also boosting shareholder returns, with MPC returning over $2.8 billion in the second quarter and DINO returning $265 million while raising its dividend by 5% to 52.5 cents per share.

US refining stocks are rallying at full speed, with Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy both more than doubling in value since the start of 2026, driven by an unusually sharp surge in global refining margins as disruptions have reduced capacity and tightened fuel supplies. The two refiners delivered combined profits of around $8.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, topping Wall Street expectations, and a Barron's report suggests more upside remains. Marathon, the largest US refiner by volume, doubled its refining margins in the second quarter, helping drive an almost four-fold increase in profits, while Valero benefits from an arbitrage opportunity for jet fuel exports to Europe. Both companies are also expected to repurchase about 20% of their market value between Q3 and the end of next year, according to TD Cowen's Jason Gabelman. However, a major risk is that investors may be assuming the exceptionally strong margins will persist, as crack spreads could normalize quickly if supplies recover, and both stocks have already surged over 110% since the beginning of 2026.

U.S. ethanol blending credit prices plunged Monday to their lowest levels in more than four months after the Environmental Protection Agency extended a September 1 compliance deadline for refiners and ruled on long-pending small refinery exemption requests by the end of August. Conventional ethanol RINs traded as low as $1.75, down $0.34 from Friday and their lowest level since April 15, according to data from Argus Media, after the credits had traded as high as $2.50 on July 7. RIN prices lost substantial value again during Monday's session in response to the EPA's impending small refinery exemption decisions, after falling 5% on Friday. Market participants expect the EPA's rulings to free up a significant number of credits, with refining and ethanol industry analysts estimating that the exemptions could free up 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion RINs that small refiners could use to meet their 2025 compliance obligations, after the EPA had previously indicated it could reallocate 990 million RINs associated with exemptions. Extending the compliance deadline is seen as signaling some form of RIN relief for refiners' 2026 and 2027 obligations as well, University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin told Reuters.

Valero Energy expects refining conditions to remain favorable, supported by low global fuel inventories, tight refining capacity and steady transportation-fuel demand. Management noted that roughly 5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity was offline, while light-product inventories were about 130 million barrels below normal seasonal levels. Even if current conflicts ended immediately, consultant data cited by Valero suggested that global inventories could remain below the five-year average through 2027, supporting continued demand for refined-product exports. Valero operates 14 refineries with roughly 3 million barrels per day of combined throughput capacity and sells products across several international markets. Management highlighted strong gasoline export demand from Latin America, while reduced gasoline flows from Europe into the United States have further tightened the market. Valero has an open arbitrage opportunity to export jet fuel to Europe, giving the company another avenue to capitalize on regional fuel shortages. These export opportunities are already supporting Valero's refining economics, with management stating that strong export markets and export premiums helped improve Gulf Coast capture rates in second quarter of 2026. Valero's refining margin reached $6.34 billion in second-quarter 2026, compared with $3.28 billion a year earlier, reflecting the strength of the current refining environment. Marathon Petroleum noted that global gasoline and diesel supplies remain constrained, with refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East adding further pressure to already low inventories. To respond to these conditions, Marathon Petroleum is focusing production on products where demand is strongest. The company reported record distillate exports in the second quarter of 2026, supported by attractive export opportunities in Latin America and Europe. Marathon Petroleum is expanding its refining capabilities through a 90,000-barrel-per-day distillate hydrotreater at Galveston Bay and a Garyville project designed to add 10,000 barrels per day of export-premium gasoline output by the end of 2027. Phillips 66 highlighted increasingly tight global refining fundamentals, driven by low fuel inventories and significant refinery disruptions across Asia, the Middle East and Russia. To capitalize on these conditions, the company maintained 96% refinery utilization in second quarter of 2026 while leveraging its commercial and logistics network to move feedstocks and refined products toward higher-value markets. Its expanded marine fleet and logistics flexibility further strengthen its ability to respond to regional shortages and capture attractive margins. Valero shares have risen 143% over the past year compared with the industry's 84.5% growth. From a valuation standpoint, Valero trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise-value-to-EBITDA of 7.1 times, above the broader industry average of 5.66 times. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Valero's 2026 earnings has remained constant over the past seven days. Valero currently sports a Zacks Rank number 1, Strong Buy.

Valero Energy reported a record second quarter profit amid a global energy crunch and refined product supply constraints. The renewable diesel segment returned to profitability, supported by tight fuel markets and strong refining margins. Management highlighted the impact of supply constraints on refinery utilization and product pricing across U.S. refiners. The company has completed US$8.42 billion of buybacks and dividend growth, and holds $5.3 billion of available liquidity.

U.S. refiners are posting record profits as global fuel shortages deepen, with Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 among the biggest winners of the second-quarter earnings season. Marathon Petroleum, America's largest refiner, earned $5.14 billion in the second quarter, more than quadruple the $1.2 billion it made a year earlier, while diluted EPS jumped to $17.73 and revenue reached $52.34 billion. Valero Energy posted a record second-quarter profit of $3.7 billion, with adjusted earnings surging from $2.28 to $12.54 per share, and Phillips 66 saw second-quarter adjusted earnings jump nearly 300% year-over-year to $9.41 per share. Shares of Marathon Petroleum have gained 122.2% year-to-date, Valero Energy 113.3%, and Phillips 66 85.3%, far outpacing the S&P 500 Energy sector's 36% gain. Chevron also delivered its best quarter in six years with adjusted earnings of $12 billion, or $6.06 per share, while Bloom Energy's second-quarter revenue surged 167% year-over-year to a record $1.07 billion on demand from AI data centers.

Valero Energy reported sharply higher sales and net income for the second quarter and first half of 2026, while completing a share repurchase program totaling 48,114,319 shares for about US$8.42 billion. The company's latest earnings release showed strong year-over-year growth, reinforcing its ability to generate substantial cash from its refining and renewable fuels platform. Management highlighted the completion of the buyback as part of its focus on returning cash to shareholders, though regulatory risks around RIN and California LCFS rules remain key swing factors for profitability. The company's narrative projects $112.7 billion revenue and $4.7 billion earnings by 2029, implying a 1.5% yearly revenue decline but an earnings increase of about $0.5 billion from $4.2 billion today.

The massive buildout of AI data centers is creating distinct investment opportunities across semiconductor equipment, real estate, energy, and cooling, according to experts interviewed by Fortune. Hyperscalers are projected to spend between $750 billion and $800 billion annually, with some forecasts reaching $1 trillion, representing 2.5% to 3% of U.S. GDP. In chips, B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis recommends shifting focus from giants like Nvidia to equipment suppliers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Marvell Technology, citing severe undersupply that will drive multi-year capex growth. For real estate, CenterSquare’s Patrick Wilson highlights data center REITs Equinix and Digital Realty as beneficiaries of the shift from AI training to inference, which favors urban facilities with low latency. Morningstar’s Andrew Bischof points to utilities like American Electric Power, which plans $78 billion in infrastructure investment through 2030, while New Constructs’ David Trainer sees value in traditional energy stocks such as Valero and HF Sinclair. In cooling, Morningstar’s Nick Lieb favors Vertiv for its dominant position in precision cooling, though notes concentration risk, and Eaton for its diversified exposure to the electrical grid. Some analysts warn that current spending levels may be unsustainable, with hyperscalers increasingly relying on debt and equity issuance.

Yuanta Securities estimates that Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited, or TASCO, has a high chance of resuming crude oil imports from Venezuela, which will lift gross margins and drive normalized profit in 2027 up 23.8% to 1.9 billion baht. This follows PDVSA, Venezuela's state oil company, restarting direct crude sales contracts with former customers. Reports indicate Phillips 66 and Reliance Industries resumed purchases in May 2026, while TASCO and Valero Energy are expected to place orders in the coming months. Venezuelan crude has an asphalt yield as high as about 70%, compared with around 50% from other sources, significantly improving cost and production efficiency. The analyst therefore raised the 2027 normalized profit forecast by 18.9% and set a new target price of 19.40 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 times, while maintaining a buy recommendation. A 2026 dividend of 1.00 baht per share is forecast, representing a yield of 6.5%.

Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.

Valero Energy Corp announced a total dividend of $1.2 per share, with the ex-dividend date set for 2026-07-31 and payment on 2026-08-31. The company has maintained a consistent dividend payment record since 1997 and has increased its dividend each year since 2010, earning the status of a dividend achiever. As of today, the 12-month trailing dividend yield is 1.48% and the forward yield is 1.54%, though the yield is near a 10-year low and underperforms over 82% of global competitors in the Oil & Gas industry. The dividend payout ratio stands at 0.33, indicating a conservative distribution policy, while profitability and growth ranks are both 8 out of 10 according to GuruFocus. However, recent three-year revenue and EPS growth rates have declined by approximately 3.80% and 28.60% per year on average, respectively, raising some caution about the pace of future dividend increases.

Valero Energy Corporation outlined a $2 billion capital investment plan for 2026, with approximately $1.7 billion allocated to sustaining the business and the remainder directed toward growth projects. Repairs to the Port Arthur DHT unit are expected to be completed and the unit returned to service by year-end, with total repair costs estimated at $250 million, a substantial portion of which is expected to be covered by insurance. The company reported second-quarter net income of $3.7 billion, or $12.62 per share, driven by strong performance across its refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol segments. Refining throughput volumes averaged 3 million barrels per day, while the renewable diesel segment posted operating income of $717 million and the ethanol segment reported $318 million. Shareholder cash returns totaled $2.6 billion in the quarter, resulting in a payout ratio of 59%, and the debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash, stood at 11% as of June 30, 2026.

Zacks Equity Research identifies Delek US Holdings, PBF Energy, and Valero Energy as well-positioned to benefit from tight fuel supplies and steady transportation demand. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining & Marketing industry ranks in the top 8% of 247 Zacks industries, with aggregate 2026 earnings estimates up 102.8% over the past year. The industry has gained 60.9% in the past year, outperforming the broader sector's 26.9% rise and the S&P 500's 18.7% gain, and trades at an EV/EBITDA of 6.25X versus the S&P 500's 18.24X. Delek US Holdings carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a 2026 earnings growth estimate of 25.9% and shares up 174.3% in a year. PBF Energy, also a Zacks Rank #1, has an expected three-to-five-year EPS growth rate of 56% and shares up 147.6% in a year. Valero Energy, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with a market capitalization of more than $90 billion, has a 2026 EPS growth estimate of 243.6% and shares up 114.4% in a year.

U.S. energy shares rose in premarket trading on Thursday after Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers pushed Brent crude briefly to $100 a barrel, intensifying Middle East tensions and heightening concerns over global oil supply disruptions. Brent crude futures rose as much as 6.3% to $100 per barrel for the first time since May 26, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 5.2% at $91.30 per barrel. Shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron rose 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, and Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum were up between 2% and 2.5%. Refiners Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 also gained between 2.1% and 2.6%. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the production recovery process in the Middle East is expected to be slower than the market anticipates, keeping the oil market tight and prices supported.

Global refiners are cutting out commodity traders and buying Venezuelan crude directly from state-run PDVSA, eroding the temporary monopoly held by Vitol and Trafigura. Phillips 66 and India's Reliance Industries have already signed direct supply agreements, with Valero and Thailand's Tipco expected to follow. The shift comes after the U.S. Treasury issued special licenses to Vitol and Trafigura until June 2027, allowing them to move more than 100 million barrels over six months while others were locked out. PDVSA is restoring its pre-2019 model of direct contracts, raising its realized prices by avoiding reseller premiums. Backed by U.S. regulatory clearance, Venezuela's total oil and fuel exports climbed past 1.2 million barrels per day in mid-2026, up from an average of 847,000 bpd in 2025, and are now eyeing 1.37 million bpd by year-end.

Valero Energy shares rose 1.18% to $313.31 in the latest close, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.19% decline. The oil refiner has surged 31.04% over the past month, far exceeding the Oils-Energy sector's 3.6% gain and the S&P 500's 0.55% advance. The company is scheduled to report earnings on July 30, 2026, with consensus estimates calling for earnings per share of $9.81 on revenue of $35.95 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 330.26% and 20.26%, respectively. Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $32.61 per share and revenue of $135.14 billion, up 207.35% and 10.15% from the prior year. Valero Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, or Buy, and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5, in line with the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry average.

U.S. refiner margins shattered records this week as low stockpiles and supply disruptions from escalating U.S.-Iran attacks threaten fuel shortfalls. The 3-2-1 crack spread, a key profitability benchmark, settled at a record $69.66 per barrel on Nymex Thursday. Diesel has been the main driver, with disruptions to Middle Eastern exports and a temporary Russian export ban tightening an already-strained market, while gasoline supplies are also a growing concern as refiners shift yields toward diesel and jet fuel. U.S. diesel inventories are down nearly 11 million barrels and gasoline inventories down more than 42 million barrels from pre-war levels, and both are well below their five-year seasonal averages. National average retail gasoline prices reached $3.99 per gallon on Saturday, up nearly $0.84 from a year ago, and analysts warn that depleted inventories and damaged Middle East refineries will keep prices elevated, benefiting refiners whose shares have surged this year.