Citigroup Inc.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, and Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, are scheduled to attend an official dinner hosted by President Donald Trump to welcome Chinese leader President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 24, CNBC reported, citing sources. The two will join several other senior corporate executives, including Sam Altman of OpenAI and Jensen Huang of Nvidia, who are also planning to attend the official dinner next Thursday. Fraser was also part of a U.S. delegation of business leaders who traveled with President Trump on his visit to Beijing in May.

American Airlines Group expects third-quarter revenue growth of 16% to 19% year over year, CEO Robert Isom said at a Morgan Stanley conference, citing broad-based strength in corporate, international, domestic, premium-cabin and coach demand. The carrier's outlook is clouded by fuel, as Chief Financial Officer Devon May said fourth-quarter fuel prices have risen about $1 per gallon over the past four weeks versus levels baked into prior guidance, and that each one-cent move is worth roughly $10 million per quarter, implying about a $1 billion increase in fourth-quarter fuel expense. May said American may adjust late-fourth-quarter capacity, including December flying, in response to higher fuel prices. Isom said the company has recovered a substantial portion of higher fuel costs through pricing and that premium seating is expected to increase about 50% by the end of the decade, with 30% of seats now generating 50% of revenue. American expects approximately $8 billion in co-brand cash remuneration this year, projected to exceed $10 billion by 2030, and said its Citi relationship could add $1.5 billion in pretax profitability by 2030, while total debt has fallen from a peak of $54 billion to roughly $36 billion against a $35 billion target.

JPMorgan co-president Doug Petno forecast that the firm's investment banking and trading fees for the third quarter will rise in the mid to high teens compared with a year earlier, sending JPMorgan stock more than 1% higher on Tuesday. Petno, who runs JPMorgan's commercial and investment bank, said clients are seeing through market volatility and the fog of uncertainty, speaking at a Barclays financial services conference in New York. The outlook places JPMorgan at the bullish end for quarterly Wall Street fees, as rivals offered more cautious views after an unusually strong first half. Morgan Stanley co-president Daniel Simkowitz said at the same conference that the third quarter is no second quarter, while Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo said investment banking fees and markets revenue should each rise roughly mid-single digits year over year. Citigroup CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said dealmaking fees are on pace for mid-single-digit growth and trading fees for low-single-digit growth, and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said investment banking fees are on pace to reach $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, down 10% to 20% from the $2 billion earned in last year's third quarter, with sales and trading flat. Petno also warned that the late-stage economy just feels too good, though he said large secular forces might make this cycle slightly different.

Citi initiated coverage of FuelCell Energy with a Neutral rating and a $19 price target, sending shares down 0.9% in Tuesday's trading. Analyst Vikram Bagri said demand from hyperscaler data centers and colocation and neocloud providers has driven the order pipeline to roughly 10 GW, with average proposal sizes rising about 3x over the last six months. Citi cited differentiated strengths including native DC baseload power, rapid deployment timelines, and more than 20 years of utility-scale operating experience, while the molten carbonate platform benefits from a largely U.S.-based supply chain, improved seven-year stack life, better power density, low emissions, chilled-water production, and carbon-capture capabilities. Bagri said recent restructurings should let operating expenses grow roughly in line with inflation while the company benefits from strong operating leverage as it grows production and achieves positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2027. However, FuelCell's product backlog remains modest at about $109M, the broader pipeline has yet to convert meaningfully into firm orders, and its roughly 50% efficiency trails Bloom Energy's SOFC platform, while expanding gas turbine, fuel cell, and engine manufacturing capacity could increase competitive pressure.

Bernstein has told clients that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of December, a call that would require a 95% gain from its current price of $76,941 with only 15 weeks left in the year. Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team call $150,000 their base case for the end of 2026, citing rising US debt and continued institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and project $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029. Prediction market traders disagree sharply: on Polymarket, where $65.88 million has been wagered, the $150,000 touch carries just a 3% chance, while a drop to $75,000 is priced at 89% and $70,000 at 64%, with Bitcoin now trading only 2.6% above the first of those levels. Kalshi traders, who have wagered more than $10.6 million, see a year-end close of $75,000, and assign a 51% probability to Bitcoin first crossing $100,000 by June 2027. Standard Chartered, whose global head of digital assets research Geoff Kendrick has twice cut his target from $300,000 to $150,000 and then to $100,000, expects $100,000 by the end of December, while Citi sits at $82,000 after two cuts from $143,000; both banks' published year-end targets have missed Bitcoin's actual December 31 close in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The two camps converge on the $95,000 level, which Polymarket gives a 31% chance of being reached, the highest odds for any upward move.

Citi analysts said in a note Tuesday that market expectations for Federal Reserve policy may be turning too hawkish ahead of Wednesday's decision, in which the bank expects a 25-basis-point rate hike. In its base case, Citi expects the increase to be dovish, coming with guidance pointing away from further hikes, and thinks Chair Kevin Warsh will characterize the move as a "slight adjustment" or "calibration" while suggesting no further increases may be needed if inflation appears to be heading back toward target. The bank believes parts of the Fed's updated economic projections should reinforce that impression, with the median dots likely showing just one more hike this year and cuts resuming in 2027, consistent with the view that policy rates near 4% are slightly restrictive and that the restriction should be removed as inflation eases. Citi also said core PCE inflation projections will likely be revised down from June, reflecting methodological revisions. However, the bank cautioned that the biggest driver of the overall tone, and the hardest to predict, is how Warsh talks about the hike, with the hawkish risk being that he simply emphasizes there is more "work to do" without offering near-term guidance, which markets could read as a signal that hikes are likely at both the October and December meetings, with the risk of further increases into 2027.

The Reserve Bank of India announced a plan to sell 1 trillion rupees of government bonds, or about 10.5 billion dollars, to drain excess liquidity from the banking system. It is the RBI's most aggressive measure to date, sending Indian government bonds lower and yields higher. The bond with a 6.94% coupon maturing in 2036 rose 7 basis points to 7.09%, while the bond with a 6.36% coupon maturing in 2031 jumped 16 basis points to 6.78%, after Indian markets reopened on Tuesday. The bond sale will be conducted in three rounds, with the first set for September 17, when the central bank will sell bonds with about 3 to 6 years of remaining maturity. Pressure is also building from the Indian central government's borrowing plan through nearly 8 trillion rupees of bond issuance over the next six months, compounded by high oil prices and August inflation that moved closer to the upper end of the 2-6% target range. Citigroup expects the RBI may raise interest rates by a total of 50 to 75 basis points, with the hiking cycle possibly beginning as early as next month. VRC Reddy, head of treasury at Karur Vysya Bank, said 5-year bonds have been particularly hard hit and expects India's yield curve to steepen, with the spread between 5-year and 10-year bond yields likely holding at around 20 to 30 basis points.

Major Wall Street financial institutions have shifted to expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase concluded that the August consumer price index reading justified a rate hike and switched to forecasting an increase at the September FOMC. Short-term money markets have priced in a probability of more than 90 percent for a September rate hike, and hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller at the Jackson Hole annual symposium emphasizing the need to address inflation also bolstered rate-hike expectations. JPMorgan Chase said core PCE has remained above 3 percent since the start of the year with no visible progress toward the 2 percent target, and expects rate hikes in both September and December, whereas as of July it had assumed only a December increase. Goldman Sachs strategists forecast the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75 percent by year-end, and TD Bank also raised its forecast from 4.25 percent to 4.75 percent. Meanwhile, after Saudi Arabia halted operations on its main east-west pipeline as a precautionary measure on the 10th following repeated attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi armed group in Yemen, crude oil prices once again reached the 100 dollar level, with New York crude futures rising as high as 104.68 dollars on the 14th.

Banks competing in the high-end credit card market are grappling with retention challenges, rising costs, and missed engagement opportunities that can dampen profitability, according to American Banker. The segment, which generally refers to cards with annual fees of $500 and above, attracts high-income spenders with strong FICO scores, and several financial institutions including American Express, Barclays, Citi, and JPMorganChase target the upper end of this luxury market, while others like Capital One and U.S. Bank offer high-end cards with somewhat lower annual fees. To offset rising costs, issuers have raised fees: Amex recently increased the annual fee on its exclusive Platinum Card to $895 from $695, and Chase boosted the fee last year on its Sapphire Reserve to $795 from $550. Brian Riley, co-head of payments at Javelin Strategy & Research, told American Banker that attracting cardholders with introductory points and perks is easier than keeping them in subsequent years, and banks need to make the year-two proposition meaningful. EY research cited by John Radecki, consumer banking leader at EY, indicates that more than 40% of younger consumers are comfortable with AI recommending which credit card or bank account to use for a purchase, adding further pressure to issuer economics. Beth Robertson, managing director at Keynova Group, told American Banker that issuers should streamline benefit enrollment and make membership services easier to access, since cardholders may forget or not realize they have access to certain benefits.

Citi strategists are closely watching five bearish narratives into year-end while maintaining their long-risk stance, according to a macro strategy note. The five risks Citi identifies are a structurally hawkish Federal Reserve, global duration risk from rising yields, a Japan carry unwind, a 1970s-style oil shock, and European natural gas disruption, with the bank arguing in each case that the market is either misreading the signal or overpricing the tail risk. On the Fed, Citi's mapping places Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, and Warsh in the hike camp, while Barr, Cook, and Waller are seen as CPI-dependent, with Waller carrying a hold bias, after core CPI rose 0.3% in August from the previous month, above expectations for a 0.2% increase. Citi has already taken profit on a one-year JPY OIS payer and on a six-month Nikkei above 61,000 / USDJPY below 157 dual digital position, the latter closed at 97%, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for September 18. On oil, Citi's commodities colleagues estimate OECD crude inventories would not fall to the roughly 70 days of demand cover seen during the 1970s-1980s oil crises until late 2027 at current drawdown rates of approximately 3 million barrels per day, with a base case of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the fourth quarter of 2026 that could see Brent crude return to the $60s in 2027, though a partial disruption extending past the U.S. midterm elections could push Brent toward $110 per barrel. On European natural gas, Citi's commodities team estimates a probability-weighted winter TTF price of around €61 per megawatt-hour, materially below the approximately €81/MWh level priced into markets as of the note's publication. Beyond the five named risks, Citi flags AI regulation as a potential sleeper threat, writing that the biggest AI risk could come from model bans, which could be more meaningful and existential than Chinese competition or DeepSeek-style efficiency shocks.

Blackstone Inc. is exploring a possible sale of ZO Skin Health, the medical-grade skincare company founded by dermatologist Dr. Zein Obagi, in a deal that Reuters reported could value the business at around $2 billion. The process is still in the early stages, and Blackstone is working with Citigroup and Raymond James on the potential sale. ZO sells cleansers, serums, and exfoliators mainly through doctors and skincare professionals, a physician-led distribution model that gives the brand a clinical, premium image and could attract strategic buyers. Reuters pointed to recent deals such as L'Oréal's $4.7 billion purchase of Kering's beauty business and Henkel's $1.4 billion acquisition of Olaplex as evidence that buyers will still spend heavily on brands with strong growth potential. The $2 billion figure remains only a reported target, and there is no guarantee Blackstone will reach that price or complete a deal, with weak buyer interest potentially forcing a discount or prompting the firm to hold the asset.

OpenAI finalized a $122 billion capital raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation on March 31, 2026, a round the company frames as its transition from experimental model lab to foundational infrastructure utility. The headline figure is a hybrid assembly of vendor compute commitments, contingent capital, and traditional equity rather than simple cash: NVIDIA's $30 billion contribution is weighted toward hardware and compute access, while Amazon's $50 billion commitment acts as a ceiling tied to milestones such as AGI development or an IPO by year-end. Amazon joins NVIDIA and SoftBank as an anchor investor, reshaping the landscape alongside Microsoft, which remains a core partner with over $13 billion in prior cumulative investment. The round drew more than $3 billion in retail participation and inclusion in three ARK Invest ETFs, and is paired with a $4.7 billion revolving credit facility backed by an 11-bank syndicate including JPMorgan, Citi, and Goldman Sachs. OpenAI reports 900 million weekly active users and a $25 billion annualized run rate, up from $6 billion at the end of 2024, supported by the March 2026 launch of GPT-5.4; CFO Sarah Friar has shifted the IPO to 2027, and a confidential S-1 was filed on June 8, 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

US earnings upgrades have now outnumbered downgrades for 21 consecutive weeks, the longest run since September 2021, according to a Citigroup Inc. index. This trend sets the stage for another strong reporting season and has boosted sentiment even as WTI prices hover above $90 a barrel and traders brace for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike. While the S&P 500 remains about 1% below its record high, analysts see robust earnings as a key driver. Keith Parker of UBS Group AG notes that expectations for next year's S&P 500 earnings have risen nearly 4% in the past two months, calling it highly unusual and a sign of strength across sectors. Willem Sels of HSBC Private Bank adds that US valuations still fail to capture the full benefits of the AI boom.

UBS assesses that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% in September and December this year, following stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls data. Meanwhile, Citigroup has pushed back its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut to June 2027, scrapping its previous expectations of two cuts late this year and another early next year. Earlier, UBS Global Wealth Management had expected no policy changes this year but revised its view after August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, surpassing analysts' forecast of 56,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring the strength of the U.S. labor market. UBS noted that hawkish policy communications, particularly from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with rising inflation risks from supply bottlenecks and strong August labor data, were sufficient to prompt a change in outlook. Currently, financial markets reflect about a 58% probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from 52% on Thursday, September 3, before the jobs report, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Citigroup also adjusted its rate path, moving its forecast for the next Fed rate cut to June 2027 from October 2026, and now expects cuts of 0.25% in June, September, and December 2027, dropping its previous expectations for cuts in October and December 2026 and January 2027. Citigroup stated that recent labor data suggests policymakers are likely to view overall employment conditions as stable and will shift focus more toward inflation. Investors will now turn attention to August CPI and PPI data due this week to further assess the Fed's rate direction.

The initial public offering of U.S. artificial intelligence company Anthropic is now expected to begin marketing no earlier than mid-October, with the listing completed just days before the U.S. midterm elections in November, according to multiple sources. Initially, it was thought the prospectus could be released as early as next week, but now it is not expected until late September. This change delays the IPO, which some investors have suggested could value the company at $2 trillion. As part of the IPO process, Anthropic is finalizing a $15 billion revolving credit facility, after which meetings with bank analysts are scheduled. The banks involved include Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. Anthropic declined to comment.