CME Group Inc

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its October 27-28 meeting, an abrupt pivot from just days ago. Chief Economist David Mericle said in a note obtained by TheStreet that the revised forecast follows the Fed's unanimous 12-0 decision on Sept. 16, which lifted the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The quarterly dot plot released the same day showed a median year-end funds rate of 3.6%, consistent with one additional 25-basis-point hike from the current midpoint, with sixteen of 18 participating policymakers anticipating at least one more increase this year. Goldman called the meeting more hawkish than expected, citing the 16-2 majority projecting at least one more hike, a median neutral rate dot that rose from 3.06% to 3.25%, and Chairman Kevin Warsh describing the move three times as having removed a dose of accommodation. Goldman kept its terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%, while the CME Group FedWatch Tool puts the odds of another quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 at 53.1% and at least one additional hike by Dec. 9 at 87.5%.

The dollar index traded in a narrow range ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting results tonight. As of 10:47 p.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.08% at 99.693, while the dollar rose 0.03% to 1.154 against the euro and weakened 0.07% to 154.97 yen. Markets are watching the meeting outcome, as well as remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the policy rate projections known as the Dot Plot, and US economic forecasts including gross domestic product, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Most recently, the FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicated that investors assign a 92.7% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4% at today's meeting, and a 7.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. If the Fed raises rates as expected today, it would be the first hike since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times by a total of 1.75%. A month ago, investors assigned only a 36% probability that the Fed would raise rates at the September 16 meeting, as the market expected inflation figures to ease. However, after Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole that pointed to tighter monetary policy, market expectations about the Fed's rate path began to shift. Meanwhile, economists at Morgan Stanley said the firm has changed its forecast from expecting no rate hikes this year to expecting two hikes, one on September 16 and another in December. Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said the most important reason is that the slowdown in inflation is still not happening fast enough to give the Fed confidence that inflation will return to 2%. Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer of Wilsey Asset Management, said that if the Fed holds rates steady today, it could surprise the stock market and could damage the Fed's credibility. Jonathan Pryor, co-head of foreign exchange trading at Marex, said the Fed is entering a new phase of monetary policy.

Wall Street stocks moved lower ahead of the US central bank's interest rate decision, which is expected to mark the start of a new rate-hiking cycle. As of 9:21 p.m. Thailand time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 168.18 points, or 0.32%, at 51,924.93. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are pricing in a 92.7% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4% at today's meeting, and a 7.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. If the Fed raises rates as expected today, it would be the first hike since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times, by a total of 1.75%. A month ago, investors assigned only a 36% probability to a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting. Economists at Morgan Stanley have revised their forecast from expecting no rate hikes this year to expecting two increases, one on September 16 and another in December. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, said inflation is still not slowing fast enough to give the Fed confidence that it can return to 2% within an appropriate timeframe.

Wall Street stock markets expect the US central bank to raise its policy interest rate at tonight's meeting to address inflation that remains above the 2% target. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 92.7% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4%, and a 7.3% probability to holding rates steady. If this plays out as expected, it will be the first rate hike since July 2023, after which the Fed cut rates 6 times for a total of 1.75%. A month ago, investors assigned only a 36% probability that the Fed would raise rates at the September 16 meeting, but expectations shifted after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a tightening stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, alongside disappointing inflation data, a stronger labor market, and crude oil prices surging above 100 dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists revised their forecast from previously expecting no rate hike this year to expecting 2 hikes, one on September 16 and another in December. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, stated that inflation is still not slowing fast enough to give the Fed confidence that inflation will return to 2% within an appropriate timeframe.

COMEX gold futures for December delivery closed down $19.10, or 0.44%, at $4,332.80 an ounce on Tuesday, September 15, in New York. The market was pressured by a stronger dollar and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 5.041%, its highest level in 19 years, or since 2007. The dollar index rose 0.23% to 99.616. Sharply higher crude oil prices also fueled inflation concerns, with WTI crude jumping 4.38% and Brent crude rising 2.90% after reports that crude loadings were suspended at the Yanbu port, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil export hub. As a result, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed investors pricing in a 94.5% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% after today's meeting concludes, in a bid to counter inflation driven by the oil price surge.

CME Group announced that its S&P UBS USD Liquid Leveraged Loan Index futures began trading on September 14, 2026. The new contracts track the S&P UBS index and offer a centrally cleared, capital-efficient tool for relative value trading, according to the Chicago-based derivatives marketplace. Ted Carey, Executive Director of Rates and OTC Products at CME Group, said the futures give institutions risk management tools beyond investment grade and high-yield markets, with cross-margining benefits within a single clearing house. Cameron Drinkwater, Chief Product and Operations Officer at S&P Dow Jones Indices, called it the first-of-its-kind exchange-traded futures contract linked to a transparent and representative leveraged loan benchmark. CME Group credit futures launched in June 2024, and since then over 1.5 million contracts have traded across the complex, with open interest exceeding $2 billion in September 2026. The contracts can provide automatic margin offsets against CME Group's interest rate and equity futures, part of the $95 billion in daily efficiencies the company delivers to clients across asset classes, and are available to trade on CME Globex and eligible for submission to clearing via CME ClearPort.

The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting began Tuesday at 10:30 AM ET, with markets overwhelmingly expecting the central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points when it issues its decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Such a move would be the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. Inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices. As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do." Traders were pricing in a roughly 92.7% chance of a hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, though a hold isn't entirely off the table. Markets will also scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.

Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week, with CME Group's FedWatch tool putting an 87% chance on a quarter-point hike at the FOMC meeting ending Sept. 16, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4% from 3.5% to 3.75%. The market also expects another quarter-point hike at the December meeting, as inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target since February 2021, a stretch of 66 straight months. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in August that responsibility for sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. History offers a warning: the Fed has initiated only three rate-hike cycles in the last 25 years, and after the first hike in each cycle the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones have on average suffered double-digit losses at some point in the following three months, with average maximum drawdowns of 11%, 17% and 10% respectively. The U.S. stock market has still had a strong year, with the S&P 500 up 12%, the Nasdaq Composite up 13% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 9% year to date, driven by massive spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The dollar index surged to its highest level in two weeks, supported by safe-haven buying of the dollar amid Middle East conflict that pushed oil prices sharply higher. At 12:46 a.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.32% at 99.437, after touching 99.590, its highest since September 2. The dollar rose 0.37% to 1.156 against the euro and strengthened 0.55% to 154.39 yen. Supporting factors also included warnings from the CEO of a leading AI company about the potential dangers of artificial intelligence, which weighed on stock markets, and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in a 90.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at its September 16 meeting, and a 9.7% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. West Texas crude oil jumped above 103 dollars per barrel and Brent crude topped 108 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia announced the closure of the East-West Pipeline amid attacks by the Houthi group. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points on selling pressure in artificial intelligence-related stocks.

Markets now assign a 90.7% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, a sharp reversal from expectations at the start of 2026 for a third cut of the year. A Reuters September 14 poll found 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise its target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Inflation has remained 140 basis points above the Fed's 2% target, with August headline CPI up 3.4% year over year, core CPI up 2.4%, and PPI up 5.4%, while Brent crude reached $107.82 and West Texas Intermediate hit $102.82 after renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The August employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, versus just 21,000 in July and a 12-month average of 30,900, removing the justification for tolerating higher inflation. The July meeting left rates unchanged, though three policymakers preferred a quarter-point increase, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16. Reuters' September 14 economist poll found many expect at least one additional hike by March 2027, with the 10-year Treasury yield recently approaching 5% and the 30-year yield above 5.3%.

Webull announced that eligible customers will gain access to CME Group's E-nano S&P 500 and E-nano Nasdaq-100 futures, expanding the platform's futures offering with smaller-sized contracts. The CME Nano Futures are ultra-small equity index contracts sized at one-tenth of comparable CME Micro E-mini futures, allowing investors to take positions with less notional exposure and potentially lower dollar margin requirements. Anthony Denier, Group President and U.S. CEO of Webull, said the addition reflects the company's vision of evolving alongside individual investors, while Tanmay Sheth, FCM Product Head for Futures and Prediction Markets at Webull, said the launch gives customers a more accessible way to participate in major equity index markets. Eligible customers with an approved Webull futures account can trade the contracts alongside existing futures products using the same tools, subject to applicable account, margin, risk and jurisdictional requirements. CME Nano Futures are expected to be available to eligible Webull customers in mid-September.

Nasdaq, NYSE Arca and Cboe EDGX plan to extend US equities trading to 23 hours a day, five days a week beginning Dec. 6, subject to final SEC approval. Seeking Alpha analysts Luca Socci and Jack Bowman weighed the pros and cons of near-continuous trading. Socci said the shift toward a 24-hour market is a matter of when, not if, arguing that more activity will be regulated and exchange structures will improve, that non-US residents will see the time-zone mismatch reduced, and that price discovery could become more continuous, narrowing gaps at the opening bell. He cautioned that longer hours do not necessarily mean more liquidity and that companies will have to figure out how to release earnings while the market is open, noting Berkshire's Saturday reporting strategy could find followers. Bowman said the main benefit for retail investors is no longer being bound to traditional market hours, but warned overnight demand is thin outside institutions and that spreading liquidity across 23 hours will fragment it further. Both flagged exchanges as beneficiaries, with Socci naming Cboe Global Markets, Nasdaq, Intercontinental Exchange, Equinix, Digital Realty Trust, Broadridge Financial Solutions and Virtu Financial, while Bowman cited Nasdaq, the NYSE, Cboe Global Markets and CME, expecting derivatives volume to rise as cross-security hedging becomes more viable.

The dollar weakened against major currencies, in line with the decline in US government bond yields, after the release of the August consumer price index. At 9:49 pm Thailand time, the dollar index was down 0.03% at 99.017, while the dollar weakened 0.01% to 1.161 against the euro and fell 0.53% to 153.56 yen. The US Labor Department reported that headline CPI, which includes food and energy, rose 3.4% year on year, in line with analysts' expectations, after also rising 3.4% in July, and rose 0.4% month on month, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.4% year on year, in line with expectations, after rising 2.5% in July, but rose 0.3% month on month, above analysts' expectations of 0.2%, after rising 0.2% in July. However, investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at next week's meeting, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating that investors assign an 85.8% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% at its September 16 meeting, up from 72.4% yesterday, and a 14.2% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.50-3.75% at the September 16 meeting, down from 27.6% yesterday.

The European Central Bank, or ECB, decided to raise its policy interest rate by 0.25% at yesterday's meeting, in line with market expectations. It was the second increase this year, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, the lending rate to 2.90%, and the refinancing rate to 2.65%. Meanwhile, Asian stock markets opened lower this morning, tracking the direction of U.S. equities. South Korea's Kospi opened down 3.3% at 6,802.50 points, and Japan's Nikkei opened down 1.5% at 64,276.82 points, amid broad-based selling. Crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on tensions in the Middle East, stoking investor concerns that inflation will accelerate and that the Fed may raise interest rates. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors assign a 70.0% probability to a 0.25% Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting, up from 61.2% on Wednesday, and a 30.0% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75%, down from 38.8%. This followed the U.S. Labor Department's release of the August producer price index, or PPI, which showed headline PPI up 5.4% year on year, above the 5.3% expected and up from 4.8% in July. Core PPI rose 4.6%, in line with expectations, from 4.3% in July. Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 206,000, above the 205,000 expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 391,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.4 million barrels.

The dollar strengthened against major currencies today after the release of strong US inflation data and surging oil prices prompted investors to raise their expectations for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. As of 00:29 Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.15% at 98.970, while the dollar rose 0.09% to 1.162 against the euro and appreciated 0.46% to 154.24 yen. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in a 70.0% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% at its September 16 meeting, up from 61.2% yesterday, and a 30.0% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75% at the September 16 meeting, down from 38.8% yesterday. The US Labor Department reported the producer price index for August, with headline PPI up 5.4% year-on-year, above analysts' forecast of 5.3% and following 4.8% in July. On a month-on-month basis, it rose 0.4%, in line with expectations, after a 0.1% increase in July. Core PPI rose 4.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, following 4.3% in July, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the forecast of 0.3%, after 0.3% in July. Meanwhile, crude oil prices in global markets soared, with Brent crude surging past $105 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude breaching $100 per barrel amid tensions between the United States and Iran, which have investors worried about disruptions to oil supply from the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal reported that advisers to President Donald Trump warned that an Iran war could drag on for the remainder of Trump's term, and Dan Struyven, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said that escalating violence in the US-Iran conflict, now in its seventh month, is raising the risk that oil prices could spike above $120 per barrel as Iran intensifies attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors have raised their bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its September 16 meeting, after the release of the August producer price index and a surge in West Texas Intermediate crude above $100 a barrel. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool shows investors assigning a 70.0% probability to a 0.25% rate hike on September 16, up from 61.2% a day earlier, and a 30.0% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75%, down from 38.8%. The U.S. Labor Department reported that headline PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above the 5.3% analysts expected and up from 4.8% in July, while on a monthly basis it rose 0.4%, in line with forecasts, after a 0.1% gain in July. Core PPI rose 4.6% year on year, in line with expectations, from 4.3% in July, and rose 0.2% month on month, below the 0.3% forecast, from 0.3% in July. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged past $105 a barrel amid tensions between the United States and Iran. Dan Struyven, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the conflict, now in its seventh month, is raising the risk that oil prices could climb above $120 a barrel as Iran intensifies attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

CME Group and the European Energy Exchange have announced an agreement for EEX to transition its European dairy business to CME Group, marking CME's entry into the European dairy market. Under the deal, EEX will phase out its dairy business and support the transfer of its indices, including European butter and skimmed milk powder indices, to CME Group before the end of 2027. CME Group plans to launch its own European dairy indices, futures, and options in the near future, building on record activity in its U.S. dairy franchise, where volumes have increased 73% over the past five years. EEX CEO Tobias Paulun said the move allows EEX to focus on its core energy markets, while CME's Derek Sammann highlighted the European Union's significant share of global milk production and exports. The transaction is subject to closing conditions, and dairy futures trading at EEX will continue for existing maturities with no immediate changes to the indices.

CME Group announced that its Henry Hub natural gas futures reached a new open interest record of 1,807,497 contracts on September 1, 2026, surpassing the previous record of 1,801,183 contracts set on November 8, 2024. The exchange noted that open interest typically peaks around November ahead of winter, but this year it rose faster and to record levels as clients positioned for geopolitical shifts and winter volatility. Peter Keavey, Global Head of Energy and Environmental Products at CME Group, attributed the surge to a Super El Niño reshaping weather-driven demand, record LNG output reordering global gas flows, and Middle East supply uncertainty. CME Group's energy business had a record first half of 2026, with average daily volume climbing 11% to 3.3 million contracts.

CME Group reported its second-highest August average daily volume on record, with ADV up 6% year-over-year to 29.7 million contracts. Among product lines, interest rate ADV rose 3% to 16.7 million contracts, equity index ADV climbed 7% to 6.8 million, energy ADV gained 3% to 2.3 million, agricultural ADV jumped 12% to 2.2 million, and metals ADV surged 48% to 1 million contracts. Foreign exchange ADV stood at 730,000 contracts, while cryptocurrency ADV reached 175,000 contracts.

Hua Seng Heng noted that gold prices declined last week after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a major speech at Jackson Hole, signaling that the Fed still prioritizes controlling inflation and that current financial conditions may not be tight enough to restrain economic activity. This led the CME Group's FedWatch Tool to quickly shift expectations from December to September, suggesting the Fed might raise interest rates by 0.25% at the September FOMC meeting. Key factors this week include tensions in the Middle East, as Pakistan's Army Chief General Asim Munir visited Iran's president to mediate the transmission of a US proposal, and Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi held talks to define a framework for a joint maritime corridor agreement. However, the IRGC launched an attack on a US air base in Jordan and prepared to fire mine-laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US labor market remains stable with no signs of weakness, which could be negative for gold as the Fed may not need to rush rate cuts. Gold has support at $4,370 and $4,300, with resistance at $4,600 and $4,700. For domestic gold bars, it is recommended to accumulate gradually near 68,700 baht, with a stop-loss at 68,000 baht, and resistance at 71,500 and 72,200 baht.

CME Group plans to launch futures contracts on October 5 tied to the hourly rental cost of Nvidia's H100 and B200 graphics processors, pending regulatory approval, marking a new attempt to create a tradable market for AI computing power. The contracts would settle against benchmarks from Silicon Data, which currently prices the H100 at about $2.68 per GPU-hour and the B200 at about $5.66. Nvidia, which forecast roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, is increasingly financing customers and participating in rental revenue, with CEO Jensen Huang saying, "Now, compute is revenue." The CFTC is reviewing whether the market is standardized and transparent enough, with a public comment period running through October 20, while rival benchmark provider Yggdrasil Financial Technologies has warned of potential conflicts similar to the LIBOR scandal. Investors like Jessica Inskip of StockBrokers.com see the futures curve as a valuable signal for future AI demand, but caution that participation will determine its reliability.

Google Cloud has officially launched Gemini Enterprise for Financial Services, now available in preview, marking its entry into the regulated capital markets and corporate banking sector with a focus on governance and auditability. The platform includes the Financial Research Agent, which offers over 50 specialized financial skills, MCP connectors to licensed data sources like D&B, FlowX, Obin, and S&P Global, and features such as confidence scores and source citations to meet audit requirements. Deutsche Bank served as the key design partner and is deploying the agent in its Corporate Bank for German MidCorp clients, with plans to evaluate it for Private and Investment banking. Early adopters include CME Group, BNY, Citi Wealth, Lloyds Banking Group, Macquarie Bank, and Signal Iduna. The financial services AI agent market is estimated at approximately $2.04 billion in 2026, but Gartner projects that over 40% of agentic AI projects may be cancelled by the end of 2027, highlighting deployment challenges.

Global equities rose alongside short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar on Friday as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike following a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Warsh said the central bank will "have work to do" if policymakers are not confident that underlying inflation is returning to its 2% target, and he acknowledged that financial conditions do not appear restrictive. After his remarks, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting jumped to 55.7% from 35.4% on Thursday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 162.95 points, or 0.30%, to 53,732.39, the S&P 500 gained 29.12 points, or 0.38%, to 7,760.11, and the Nasdaq Composite added 111.40 points, or 0.41%, to 26,652.75. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 7.84 basis points to 4.312%, while the dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.47. Oil prices drifted lower, with U.S. crude falling 0.63% to $83.00 a barrel, and gold slipped 0.61% to $4,572.99 an ounce.

CME Group announced plans to launch E-mini Equity Factor futures on September 21, pending regulatory review, expanding its equity product suite with six new contracts tied to S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes. The new futures include E-mini S&P 500 Growth, Value, Quality, Momentum, and Low Volatility, as well as E-mini Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100, providing tailored exposure to specific equity factors. These contracts will complement single- and multi-factor strategies, offering capital efficiencies for risk management and relative value trading, and will be eligible for margin offsets with other cleared equity products. The launch is supported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, Invesco, and Schwab Asset Management, with trading available on CME Globex and through block trades and BTIC transactions.

CME Group recorded the first trades in its new U.S. Zinc Futures contracts, with participation from Glencore and Trafigura, expanding its regional industrial metals offering for U.S. price risk management. The contracts target producers, traders, and end users across the U.S. zinc supply chain, providing an exchange-traded, centrally cleared hedging tool for physical zinc exposure. CME Group, valued at about $100.4 billion, expects the launch to support volumes and revenue growth, though early traction will be measured by average daily volume and open interest after the first September 2026 delivery. Sustained engagement from commercial users would indicate the contract is becoming a regular hedging tool, while longer-term risks from DeFi-style venues and regulation remain.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in July and was up 3.7% year over year, both 0.1% above economists' expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year, in line with estimates. The hotter-than-expected reading breaks a recent trend of cooling inflation, as the Consumer Price Index came in soft in June and July, and July's jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls versus an expected gain of 85,000. Personal income rose 0.4% and spending rose 0.2%, both higher than expected, potentially fueling inflation. The Federal Reserve is divided on whether to raise rates at its remaining 2026 meetings, with CME Group's FedWatch tool showing a nearly 62% chance of holding rates in September and a roughly 45% chance of a quarter-point hike in December.

Kalshi's GPU rental markets generated $4.4 million in notional volume through July 27, according to data analytics firm Allium. That total covers Kalshi markets across five Nvidia chips and is roughly 15 times the $285,000 traded on rival Polymarket. Bloomberg Opinion had argued that barely anyone is trading compute contracts, noting Kalshi's most popular August market has generated just over $100,000, but Allium's broader measure shows traders are interested in GPU prices. Allium also examined six completed weekly markets tracking Nvidia B200 rental prices and found that two days before settlement, Kalshi's forecasts were a median 10% away from the final price while remaining within 2.2% of the current spot price, suggesting traders were largely following spot prices rather than anticipating moves. CME Group plans to launch futures tracking monthly rental costs for Nvidia's H100 and B200 chips on Oct. 5, pending regulatory review, and the exchange compares compute's development with oil's evolution from spot trading into a global derivatives market.

CME Group reported second-quarter revenues of $1.71 billion, flat year over year and 1.7% above analyst expectations. The company also delivered a decent beat on EBITDA estimates. Its stock has risen 16% since the report and currently trades at $275.30. Among the ten financial exchanges and data stocks tracked, Morningstar posted the strongest quarter with revenue up 9.6% to $663.2 million, while S&P Global was the weakest after full-year EPS guidance slightly missed expectations. The group overall beat consensus revenue estimates by 1.6% and shares are up 8.4% on average since reporting.

President Trump said this week that Hyperliquid, a crypto-native exchange built around perpetual futures, could be brought into compliance with US regulations, reopening a debate over whether perpetual futures should be classified as swaps or futures. CME Group has drafted perpetual futures contracts and built full launch capability despite CEO Terry Duffy publicly calling perps speculative, not hedging, tools. If the CFTC classifies perps as swaps, five-day margin requirements replace one-day rules, effectively eliminating 50x retail leverage from US markets. Global perpetuals trading is pacing around 150 billion of notional per day, and CME is up 10.33% over the past month to close Friday at $274.98.

CME Group participated in a White House crypto summit alongside major financial institutions, underscoring its role in US digital asset policy discussions. The company featured in talks on regulatory frameworks for crypto markets, highlighting its engagement beyond traditional futures and options. At a recent CFTC meeting, CME Group's CEO publicly challenged a prediction market competitor, focusing on market integrity and regulatory standards. The twin events put CME Group at the center of debates on how digital assets and prediction markets should be supervised in the US.