Barclays PLC

Barclays expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November. It cited a "dramatic change" in the medium-term energy outlook and warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could lead to further monetary tightening. The Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% on the 17th, as expected, but projected that inflation would exceed 4% in early 2027, and its meeting minutes also struck a more hawkish tone. Barclays strategists also suggested that if the Middle East conflict continues, there is room for another 25 basis point hike in February 2027. JPMorgan Chase also expects the Bank of England to raise rates in November and in February 2027, revising its previous forecast of one hike in November followed by two cuts in 2027.

Crux AI, the cloud venture backed by Google and Blackstone, has secured $22 billion in debt financing to buy Google-developed Tensor Processing Units, according to Bloomberg. Ten banks are reportedly providing the financing, including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, BNP Paribas and Bank of Nova Scotia, with the debt backed partly by the value of Google's TPUs and partly by customer contracts signed by Crux AI. Blackstone has separately committed an initial $5 billion in equity. Crux AI plans to bring its first 500 megawatts of data-center capacity online in 2027, a test of whether customers will adopt Google's chips on a much larger scale outside Google's own ecosystem. The $22 billion solves part of the funding problem, and investors will be watching how quickly Crux AI fills that first 500 megawatts.

Banks competing in the high-end credit card market are grappling with retention challenges, rising costs, and missed engagement opportunities that can dampen profitability, according to American Banker. The segment, which generally refers to cards with annual fees of $500 and above, attracts high-income spenders with strong FICO scores, and several financial institutions including American Express, Barclays, Citi, and JPMorganChase target the upper end of this luxury market, while others like Capital One and U.S. Bank offer high-end cards with somewhat lower annual fees. To offset rising costs, issuers have raised fees: Amex recently increased the annual fee on its exclusive Platinum Card to $895 from $695, and Chase boosted the fee last year on its Sapphire Reserve to $795 from $550. Brian Riley, co-head of payments at Javelin Strategy & Research, told American Banker that attracting cardholders with introductory points and perks is easier than keeping them in subsequent years, and banks need to make the year-two proposition meaningful. EY research cited by John Radecki, consumer banking leader at EY, indicates that more than 40% of younger consumers are comfortable with AI recommending which credit card or bank account to use for a purchase, adding further pressure to issuer economics. Beth Robertson, managing director at Keynova Group, told American Banker that issuers should streamline benefit enrollment and make membership services easier to access, since cardholders may forget or not realize they have access to certain benefits.

Prediction market Polymarket now prices an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15 to 16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium and about 50% before the August CPI release. The move follows a hotter-than-expected August core CPI print of 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and Barclays reversed its forecast on August 31, 2026 to call for consecutive 25 basis point hikes. A hike on September 16 would be the first since 2023, ending a run in which Chair Kevin Warsh's Fed has held rates at five straight meetings with the federal funds upper bound at 3.75% since December 2025. Bitcoin trades at $77,293.66 and XRP at $1.37 as of September 12, 2026, with Bitcoin's correlation to rate-sensitive assets at a record high and XRP historically swinging harder on Fed decision days. Because the hike is already priced in, a delivered quarter-point move would likely draw only a modest reaction, while the 18% hold scenario carries the biggest surprise potential for both coins.

China is pushing ahead with expanding the scope of tax collection on the overseas assets and income of its wealthy citizens, after net capital outflows in 2025 reached nearly 780 billion dollars, higher than the previous record of about 630 billion dollars in 2015. Zhou Aingke, a director at Barclays, sees the latest measures as possibly the first step toward tighter scrutiny of cross-border wealth, with authorities potentially extending scrutiny in future to exporters' income held abroad, income from overseas investment and employment, and in the longer term possibly including gift or inheritance taxes. Barclays expects China may widen its tax base to cover returns from overseas real estate, equities, bonds and precious metals, bringing China's tax system closer to the approach of other large economies. This year's moves began in May, when banks and securities firms in Hong Kong started restricting mainland Chinese clients from investing in overseas stocks. Then in July, China imposed a 20% income tax on offshore trusts, closing a tax loophole that high-net-worth families had long used. Most recently, regulators set a 20% tax on foreigners' dividends received from foreign-invested companies, which had previously not been taxed. Barclays estimates that the Chinese government's revenue fell to about 20% of GDP in 2025 from 26% in 2021, while spending dipped only slightly from 31% to 29% of GDP over the same period. Bank of America notes that China's tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 19.5% in 2024, compared with an OECD average of 34%.

Barclays said on the 10th that it expects the European Central Bank to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike in December. It said upward revisions to the inflation outlook, combined with rising energy prices amid a war between the United States and Iran, are strengthening the case for further monetary tightening. The ECB decided on a 25bp rate hike at its governing council meeting on the 10th, and its new economic projections showed it is highly likely that inflation will remain above its 2% target for an extended period. Goldman Sachs also said it expects the ECB to go ahead with another 25bp rate hike in December, pushing interest rates into slightly restrictive territory, and noted that the ECB's baseline scenario shows inflation returning to its 2% target only in late 2027. Barclays sees little chance of a policy change in October and expects policymakers to wait until December, when they will have the latest economic projections in hand.

Barclays estimates that the Japanese yen, which has strengthened rapidly in recent weeks, could reverse course and weaken back into the upper 150s per dollar if expectations that the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, will accelerate interest rate hikes and that Japanese pension funds will shift investments back into domestic assets fail to materialize. Barclays' strategist team, including Shinichiro Kadota, said in a Thursday report that the yen's latest appreciation was driven by expectations that the BOJ will tighten monetary policy, speculation about pension fund portfolio rebalancing, and technical factors in the market. Although the dollar-yen pair breaking below the key support level around 155 yen per dollar gives the yen room to strengthen further in the short term, Barclays believes the structural factors weighing on the yen have not changed significantly. The view comes after the yen strengthened nearly 4% this month, touching its strongest level since February, as the market increased the odds of a BOJ rate hike at next week's meeting and speculated that the Government Pension Investment Fund, or GPIF, may adjust its asset allocation by increasing domestic investment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also signaled support for a stronger yen. In Thursday afternoon trading in Asia, the yen strengthened about 0.1% to 153.45 yen per dollar. Barclays warns that if the yen is to strengthen further from current levels, the BOJ may need to signal or implement policy tighter than the market expects, since expectations for a BOJ rate hike are already high, and it believes the market may be overestimating the impact of GPIF's investment shift, which would leave the yen at risk of weakening again if the fund does not adjust its allocation as the market expects. In addition, several fundamentals still do not support a sustained yen appreciation, including the interest rate differential between Japan and other countries, the risk premium on Japanese equities, concerns over the policies of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and structural yen-selling flows.

Centrus Energy Corp. announced the pricing of a $500 million underwritten public offering of Class A common stock and warrants. The offering comprises 500,000 shares of Class A common stock, pre-funded warrants to purchase an aggregate of 2,005,513 shares, and common warrants to purchase up to an aggregate of 6,992,382 shares. The combined public offering price is $199.64 per share of Class A common stock and accompanying common warrants, and $199.54 per pre-funded warrant and accompanying common warrants, with the pre-funded warrants carrying an exercise price of $0.10 per share. The common warrants will be issued in four series, each with an aggregate exercise price of approximately $500 million and exercise prices of $226.8625, $272.2350, $317.6075, and $362.9800 per share, respectively. Gross proceeds are expected to be approximately $500 million before deducting the underwriting discount and estimated offering expenses, and Centrus intends to use the net proceeds for general working capital and corporate purposes, which may include technology development and deployment, debt repayment or repurchase, capital expenditures, and potential acquisitions. Guggenheim Securities is acting as lead book-running manager and Barclays is acting as a book-running manager, with the offering expected to close on or about September 11, 2026.

Barclays recommends that investors reduce risk in the stock market on a sector-by-sector basis during September, amid concerns that the 10-year US Treasury yield, which has surged to 4.8% and is nearing 5%, will pressure the market. Emmanuel Cau, Barclays' head of European equity strategy, told Bloomberg Television that it is difficult for stocks to continue rising if the bond market remains unstable, and there are sufficient reasons to lower beta or exposure to assets sensitive to volatility. Other pressures include the statistic that September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 in 25 years, the US midterm elections, and large AI company IPOs that could drain liquidity from the market. If upcoming US inflation and employment data are weak, stocks may still have room to rise, but if the numbers come in hotter than expected, concerns will grow, especially if bond yields hit 5%.

JPMorgan Chase is hiring veteran dealmaker David Fishman from Bank of America to lead North America technology mergers and acquisitions, according to an internal memo reported by Reuters. Fishman, who spent nearly 16 years at Bank of America and co-headed its technology, media, and telecommunications banking group, resigned. JPMorgan is also elevating Vineet Seth, its current North America tech M&A head, to vice chair of investment banking, with both bankers joining a new Technology M&A Leadership and Advisory Council. The move follows other recent senior departures from Bank of America, including Mike Joo to Barclays and Amy Lissauer, who is also joining JPMorgan.