InnovestX Says Thai Stocks at Risk of Pullback, Brent Crude Hits 100 Dollars, Recommends Selective Buy

MacroCommodityPrice Action
โดย Prachachat·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock index on September 10, 2026, may pull back and consolidate after the investment atmosphere returned to a risk-off stance, driven by the rise in the 10-year US government bond yield and continuously climbing oil prices, which brought the market back to worrying about inflation trends and the direction of US interest rates. It estimates support at 1,605 and 1,600 points, with resistance at 1,625 and 1,630 points. The key pressure comes from Brent crude oil, which rose 3.4% to reach 100 dollars per barrel, the highest since May 22, amid supply concerns after heightened tensions in the Middle East, while demand from China has begun to recover. This is seen as a short-term positive for energy stocks PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC and IRPC, as well as petrochemical stocks PTTGC and IVL, but a negative factor for SPP power plants such as GPSC and BGRIM due to rising fuel cost risks. Meanwhile, the US bond market has resumed creating pressure after the US Treasury's buyback of long-term bonds came in at 6 billion dollars, which, although double the previous amount, was still below the market's expectation of 7 to 8 billion dollars. As a result, 2-year and 10-year US bond yields rose 0.04%, and the market assigns more than 60% weight to the possibility that the Fed may raise rates to curb inflation. This high bond yield environment is seen as a positive factor for insurance stocks such as BLA and TLI. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows still show positive signals: on September 9, foreign investors net bought 3,137 million baht of Thai stocks, with cumulative net buying of 10,038 million baht since the start of September and 61,407 million baht since the start of the year, in contrast to domestic institutional investors who net sold 960 million baht, securities company accounts which net sold 1,260 million baht, and retail investors who net sold 917 million baht. On September 9, the SET closed at 1,617.89 points, down 4 points or 0.25%, with trading value of 81,330.74 million baht. For investment strategy, InnovestX recommends Selective Buy, focusing on stocks with specific positive factors, divided into three main themes: Policy and Domestic Play, Global Macro & Bond Yield Play, and Laggard Play. For the Global Macro & Bond Yield Play group, it gives weight to energy stocks PTTEP, BCP, TOP, shipping stocks PSL, TTA, as well as banking stocks KTB, BBL, KBANK and life insurers BLA, TLI. The Laggard Play group includes AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR.

Impact on stocks 27

Financials▲ · 7 stocks
Thai Life Insurance PCL
TLI
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Named as an insurance stock seen as a positive beneficiary of the high US bond yield environment.

Energy Transition & Power Demand± Mixed · 5 stocks
Global Power Synergy PCL
GPSC
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Rising fuel cost risk from climbing oil prices is a negative factor for SPP power plants such as GPSC.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited
TOP
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Rising Brent crude to $100 on Middle East supply concerns and recovering Chinese demand is seen as a short-term positive for energy stocks including TOP.

Energy▲ · 3 stocks
IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Brent crude at $100 on Middle East supply concerns and recovering China demand is seen as a short-term positive for energy stocks including IRPC.

Health Care▲ · 2 stocks
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲ · 1 stocks
Indorama Ventures PCL
IVL
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Named as a petrochemical stock seen as a short-term positive amid recovering Chinese demand and rising oil prices.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
Consumer Discretionary▲ · 1 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Consumer Staples▲ · 1 stocks
Others▲ · 2 stocks

Theme Impact 2

Related news

3impact 4

Trump signs Russia sanctions bill, granting tariff authority over countries buying Russian oil

US President Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill into law on the 18th. The law grants the president the authority to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil products. It allows the president to impose a 500% tariff on Russian goods imported into the United States, and to impose an additional 100% tariff on the top five energy-importing countries, countries importing Russian crude oil and natural gas, and countries that help evade sanctions. This tariff authority expires after five years. The top five buyers of Russian oil products include China, India, and US ally Turkey, and they could be subject to a broad range of new tariffs. The law also extends the application deadline of the 1996 Iran Sanctions Act to 2031, imposing secondary economic sanctions on non-US companies that trade with Iran; it had been due to expire this year. The Russian presidential administration said on the 17th that the US Congress's passage of the bill was an "unfriendly" move and warned it could affect negotiations aimed at ending the war.
Energy Transition & Power Demand
Bloomberg·1hRead more →
2impact 4

Trump Signs Russia-Iran Sanctions Law, Authorizing Tariffs of Up to 100%

US President Donald Trump signed into law a Russia sanctions bill on Friday, September 18. The law grants authority to expand sanctions, impose customs duties and various prohibitions against Russia, while renewing existing sanctions on Iran. The law, named the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, imposes sanctions on Russian officials, Russian banks and vessels used to transport energy from Russia, and gives Trump the authority to levy tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five countries that import the most oil or natural gas from Russia. It also extends the Iran Sanctions Act for another five years to maintain sanctions targeting Iran's energy and weapons sectors. The US House of Representatives passed the bill on Wednesday, September 16, after the Senate approved it on August 7. The law is a major achievement carrying on the legacy of Lindsey Graham, the former senator who championed the bill and died in July after a sudden illness. However, the bill faced more division in the House than in the Senate, with three Democratic members of the House saying in a joint statement recently that the law may do more harm than good because it greatly increases Trump's power to set tariffs but does not compel him to impose sanctions on Russia.
Energy Transition & Power Demand Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation
InfoQuest·2hRead more →
▼impact 4

Eknat Unveils Energy Restructuring Plan, Reserving 10,000 Megawatts of Rooftop Solar for the Public

Energy Minister Eknat Prompan has unveiled a major energy restructuring plan, under which the government will reserve 10,000 megawatts of rooftop solar generating capacity specifically for the public, set at roughly 5 kilowatts per household, to spread the right across households nationwide. Under the new approach, the state will buy back surplus power and apply it as a discount on the same billing cycle's electricity bill. A 5-kilowatt system can generate about 600 to 700 units per month, worth roughly 2,000 baht or more, and the state will provide a subsidy of 50,000 baht, with the income from the generated power used to pay it off. The equipment is expected to be fully paid off in about 7 to 10 years. On cutting permitting steps, coordination will be handled solely through the distribution utilities, with a target of about 1 week for inspection and acceptance in self-consumption installations, and no more than 1 month in cases of selling power back. For the new Power Development Plan, or PDP, three goals are set: cleanest, most stable, and fairest. It targets raising the share of clean energy from the current level of just over 20% to close to 50% within 10 years, and no less than 65% in the long term, while reducing reliance on spot-market LNG in favor of long-term contracts, and opening the door to future technologies including hydrogen, geothermal, solid oxide fuel cells, and small modular nuclear reactors, or SMRs. Meanwhile, the public electricity cost that has been embedded in the power tariff structure for 30 to 40 years amounts to a burden of about 18 billion baht per year. The government has removed this burden from the structure and has already implemented a measure capping the first 200 units of household electricity at 3 baht per unit.
Energy Transition & Power Demand ▲
InfoQuest·3hRead more →
© 2026 MarketDXNews