JPMorgan Chase & Co

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, and Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, are scheduled to attend an official dinner hosted by President Donald Trump to welcome Chinese leader President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 24, CNBC reported, citing sources. The two will join several other senior corporate executives, including Sam Altman of OpenAI and Jensen Huang of Nvidia, who are also planning to attend the official dinner next Thursday. Fraser was also part of a U.S. delegation of business leaders who traveled with President Trump on his visit to Beijing in May.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors begin unwinding defensive positions around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to a Wednesday note. The analysts said Bitcoin investors remain more heavily hedged than gold investors, leaving room for the cryptocurrency to benefit disproportionately if that caution fades. Gold ETFs have already recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half, and short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, remains near its highest level this year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF is below its historical average. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million in net outflows on Sept. 15 and another $295.9 million on Sept. 16, before reversing to $159.5 million of inflows on Sept. 17, with IBIT alone bringing in $183.7 million that day. The call comes despite a difficult backdrop: on Sept. 15 the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed for cloture, and a day later the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023.

JPMorgan said on the 17th that it is unable to present a clear base-case scenario for the crude oil market for the first time since the war between the United States and Israel and Iran began. In a report, the bank's analyst team said it simply cannot model how the war will ultimately conclude, noting that many of the economic red lines the U.S. administration was assumed not to cross at the start of the conflict have been crossed over the course of six months, with no clear exit strategy in sight. Crude prices have topped 100 dollars a barrel, U.S. gasoline prices have hit a record 4.37 dollars a gallon, and diesel prices have reached an all-time high of 6.31 dollars a gallon ahead of the winter demand season, while inventories have fallen to record lows. JPMorgan estimated a fair value of about 90 dollars a barrel for North Sea Brent crude for September, but with actual prices currently around 106 dollars, it analyzed that the market is pricing in further supply-loss risks on top of the 10 million barrels per day of supply it assumes has been disrupted. Global crude and petroleum product inventories have fallen by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, but that is only about one-third of the decline the bank had forecast at the start of the year, and global oil demand is also running about 4.4 million barrels per day below the same period a year earlier, offsetting the impact of the supply losses. While substantial inventories remain, mainly in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea, and could serve as a buffer, the bank warned that if supply disruptions from the Middle East continue, inventories will fall further and crude prices could rise even more before the end of the year.

JPMorgan Chase raised its prime lending rate to 7% from 6.75% following the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate increase, and shares slipped approximately 0.2% to $348.29 Thursday morning. The prime rate is a key benchmark for borrowing costs across products such as credit cards and personal loans, and Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and several regional lenders made similar moves. The math is not automatic, however, because loans and deposits reset at different speeds, so a 25-basis-point increase in the prime rate does not mean JPMorgan captures a matching boost in lending margins. Higher loan yields can lift net interest income when deposit costs move more slowly, but tighter rates can also cool borrowing, squeeze customers with variable-rate debt and eventually weigh on credit quality. JPMorgan's $348.29 share price sits 9.7% above its $317.50 GF Value, suggesting the market is already pricing in a meaningful amount of strength.

Economists at U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase said on the 17th that they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates in November and again in February 2027, revising their earlier forecast of one hike in November followed by two cuts in 2027. The Monetary Policy Committee decided that day by a 6-3 majority to hold the policy rate at 3.75%, warning that a prolonged Middle East conflict could require further tightening, and also indicated that UK inflation is expected to exceed 4% in early 2027. JPMorgan senior economist Alan Monks noted in a report that, barring a major change in the geopolitical outlook, a November hike sounds all but decided, and he expects one more hike in 2027 following the November move, after which the BOE is seen holding the policy rate unless clear evidence emerges of second-round inflation effects such as wage expectations rising to 4%. He also assessed the BOE's decision, announced alongside the rate decision, to halt all government bond sales for the next six months as a clear and resolute plan aimed at reducing uncertainty during a period of market instability, while calling it a big surprise given the impression that it blurs the line between BOE and government decisions.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said federal oversight of artificial intelligence should be "light touch," arguing that a patchwork of differing state laws makes AI commerce nearly impossible to conduct. In a Wednesday interview, Dimon said any regulation should come from Washington rather than the states, adding that while government involvement can "muck things up," that does not mean oversight should be abandoned. His comments follow a lengthy essay published last Saturday by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei calling for slower frontier model development and government regulation of the broader industry, a stance President Trump criticized on Truth Social on Monday. Dimon said JPMorgan is already working with Anthropic on frontier model risks and talking with federal officials as banks and the government build new systems for coordinating cybersecurity vulnerabilities. JPMorgan was part of a syndicate finalizing a pre-IPO credit facility for Anthropic earlier this month, according to a Bloomberg report, and the bank was the only lender named in the initial announcement of Anthropic's Mythos working group, which has since expanded to include more than one hundred other organizations.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said high inflation has not been slayed and that he remains continually concerned it could rise further this year, citing longer-term investing themes including infrastructure, AI and the militarization of the world. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Dimon balanced that warning with signs of economic strength, pointing to the labor market, business formation and overall corporate earnings. On AI, he addressed the financing boom and its risks, after JPMorgan's Doug Petno said earlier this week that the bank has been modeling the blast radius of a potential bad outcome in the AI investing cycle. Dimon said the bank's underwriting of data centers comes down largely to compute and the pricing paid for compute, and to whether the huge tech companies backing those data centers can pay. He stopped short of calling for a slowdown in AI investment, in contrast to some AI leaders over the past week, but voiced support for a lighter touch in federal oversight.

IREN has signed a roughly US$5.50 billion, five-year partnership with Nvidia tied to its fast-growing AI cloud services platform, prompting JPMorgan analyst Richard Choe to issue a rare double-upgrade on the company. The Nvidia deal sits alongside a US$3.65 billion GPU financing facility, and together the two agreements underpin IREN's goal of scaling to 480MW of AI Cloud capacity by the end of 2026. The company is also winding down Bitcoin mining and expanding vertically integrated AI infrastructure, a material redefinition of its core business model. IREN's narrative projects $8.7 billion in revenue and $504.8 million in earnings by 2029, while the most optimistic analysts had already assumed about US$14.7 billion in revenue and around US$1.3 billion in earnings by that year. The company still faces near-term pressure from sizeable capex, financing needs, and execution risk around large contracted projects.

JPMorgan analysts said the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is "not completely dead" even though it failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote, The Block reported on September 16. The Senate vote on the 15th came in at 49 in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move forward with debate. However, Senator Thom Tillis switched his vote to no on procedural grounds and then filed a motion to reconsider, and JPMorgan noted that this procedure leaves room to bring the bill back to the floor for another vote. The analysts, led by Kenneth Worthington, pointed out that the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin regulation law enacted in 2025, also failed its first cloture vote, showing there is precedent for crypto-related bills being voted on again, and said the Clarity Act remains on the Senate calendar and could be re-voted before the current Congress adjourns at the end of the year. On the other hand, they analyzed that the time available to pass it this year is "extremely narrow and narrowing further," with only about two and a half weeks of Senate floor time left before the November midterm elections, and they see limited momentum for additional negotiations during the post-election lame-duck session. With the bill's prospects uncertain, investor attention may shift to rulemaking by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and JPMorgan noted that while rules from regulators can also provide a degree of clarity, they are subject to change by future administrations and to court rulings, and are not as durable as legislation passed by Congress. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig also said on the 16th that they each plan to advance crypto rulemaking under existing legal authority.

Wall Street is betting on a nearly 93% chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this afternoon for the first time in more than three years, lifting them by a quarter point to a new range of 3.75%-4%. Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matt Luzzetti called the case for a hike strong, pointing to solid economic growth, a rebounding job market, and inflation showing limited evidence of falling back toward the Fed's 2% goal, with oil climbing back over $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions. JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli sees a closer call, noting the Fed's preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures index has been above 3% every month this year, while estimating the three-month annualized core PCE at 2.7% through August. Luzzetti expects three total hikes, on Wednesday, in December and next March, unwinding the three risk-management cuts made in the fall of 2025, while Feroli anticipates one more hike in December. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned on X that a hike would be a policy mistake because energy prices and tariffs are supply shocks rate hikes cannot fix, and said the Fed can wait. The decision is due at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

JPMorgan says the S&P 500 could swing from 1% higher to 2% lower depending on how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh frames Wednesday's expected rate hike. A 25-basis-point hike is largely priced in, with Polymarket traders putting the odds at 89% versus 11% for no change and roughly $193 million traded on the decision. The bank estimates a surprise hold would send the index down 1.25% to 1.75%, while a hike with little guidance could lift it 0.25% to 0.75%. JPMorgan's most bullish scenario, a hike paired with a signal that the Fed is simply unwinding the 75 basis points of easing delivered in 2025, sees the S&P rising 0.5% to 1%, while a signal that rates must rise materially further points to a 1% to 2% decline. The Fed releases its decision and updated economic projections at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Americans aged 40 to 59 now account for 49.9% of new consumer bankruptcies, their highest share since the first quarter of 2017, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Consumer Credit Panel and Equifax. Within that group, those aged 40 to 49 represent 26.8% of new bankruptcies, the largest share of any age group and their highest since the third quarter of 2015, while those aged 50 to 59 account for another 23.1%. Americans aged 70 and older now represent 21.5% of new bankruptcies, their highest proportion since the second quarter of 2017, while borrowers aged 18 to 29 account for just 5.9%, their lowest share since the second quarter of 2014. Total U.S. household debt stood at $18.771 trillion in the second quarter, with credit card balances reaching $1.263 trillion, up $54 billion from a year earlier, and 6.97% of credit card balances transitioning into serious delinquency, compared with 6.93% a year earlier. JPMorgan Chase recorded $2.5 billion in provisions for credit losses in the quarter, down from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with credit card net charge-offs at a 3.33% annualized rate, while Capital One Financial reported a net charge-off rate of 4.71% and net income of $3.0 billion, suggesting lenders are not yet seeing broad-based losses on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis.

Sitara Sundar, head of alternative investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said the artificial intelligence trade is in a digestion period and warned of near-term volatility, while maintaining a constructive long-term view on the industry. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Sundar said the market is trying to price two trades at once: an AI financing and infrastructure buildout that has already absorbed trillions of dollars and is in its middle innings, and the later-stage integration of AI into companies and sectors outside technology, which remains in its early innings. She said JPMorgan Private Bank would lean more into the integration and application layer of artificial intelligence, adding that spending in that area is not going to go down. Sundar said some data centers and financing activity are still being issued at 8%, 9% and 10% rates, and that spreads on hyperscaler issuance in investment grade have already started to widen, though she believes there is still room to go. She also said the biggest risk on the table outside of AI-related issuance is inflation, arguing core fixed income will not protect against it and pointing to real assets and infrastructure as areas where investors remain underallocated.

Major Wall Street financial institutions have shifted to expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase concluded that the August consumer price index reading justified a rate hike and switched to forecasting an increase at the September FOMC. Short-term money markets have priced in a probability of more than 90 percent for a September rate hike, and hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller at the Jackson Hole annual symposium emphasizing the need to address inflation also bolstered rate-hike expectations. JPMorgan Chase said core PCE has remained above 3 percent since the start of the year with no visible progress toward the 2 percent target, and expects rate hikes in both September and December, whereas as of July it had assumed only a December increase. Goldman Sachs strategists forecast the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75 percent by year-end, and TD Bank also raised its forecast from 4.25 percent to 4.75 percent. Meanwhile, after Saudi Arabia halted operations on its main east-west pipeline as a precautionary measure on the 10th following repeated attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi armed group in Yemen, crude oil prices once again reached the 100 dollar level, with New York crude futures rising as high as 104.68 dollars on the 14th.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank are now forecasting a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at this week's Sept. 15-16 meeting, a reversal driven by stronger-than-expected inflation readings and rising oil prices, according to Reuters. The four institutions are aligned on a quarter-point increase, and several see rates staying higher for longer as the Fed pursues its 2% inflation target. Market odds of a hike this week stood at roughly 88% to 89%, compared with 67% to 70% before last week's inflation data. August inflation data came in hotter than anticipated, with a closely watched gauge of core prices notching its biggest monthly jump in four months, while crude oil crossed $100 a barrel as hostilities in the Middle East intensified. JPMorgan economists led by Michael Feroli said the prior week featured rising bond yields and energy prices and a firm enough set of inflation readings to make a rate hike more likely than not, and the bank raised its estimate of the long-run policy rate to 3.25%. Goldman Sachs maintained its outlook for two Fed rate cuts in 2027, though pushed back from its earlier timeline, after having called a September increase very unlikely as recently as last month, when CME FedWatch data put the odds at around 30%.

J.P. Morgan analysts issued Buy ratings on two stocks outside the market's usual favorites, sustainable womenswear brand Reformation and construction materials supplier Martin Marietta Materials. Analyst Matthew Boss rates Reformation Overweight with a $21 price target, implying a 60% one-year gain, citing mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, a 90% direct-to-consumer revenue mix, and gross margins above 60%. Reformation, which went public on July 30 at $15 per share and raised $210.9 million in gross proceeds, reported fiscal 2Q26 revenue of $155.2 million, up 24.1% year-over-year, and EPS of $0.23, and guided full fiscal 2026 net revenue to $602 million to $606 million. Analyst Adrian Huerta rates Martin Marietta Overweight with a $680 price target, a 35% gain, after the company completed its $13.5 billion acquisition of Lhoist North America, funded with $7 billion in cash and $6.5 billion in stock. Huerta expects $85 million in cost synergies by year two and $100 million to $175 million in commercial EBITDA upside, noting the lime business will be roughly 23% to 25% of Martin Marietta's operations. Martin Marietta reported 2Q26 revenue of more than $1.9 billion, up 21% and a company record, with adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations of $5.

SpaceX stock could receive a much-needed boost on September 21, when a rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100 is expected to increase its index weight from 1.25% to 2.25%, potentially adding $15.5 billion in passive inflows, according to JPMorgan. The company, which went public in June 2026 at an IPO price of $135 per share and now carries a market capitalization of about $1.97 trillion, has seen its stock fall roughly 12% from its opening price of $171.74 on June 15. Investors are cautioned that more than 1 billion shares held by pre-IPO investors such as insiders, early backers, and employees are expected to become available by the end of October, with another tranche of 1.3 billion shares potentially hitting the market after third-quarter results in November, though holders may choose not to sell. Nasdaq had earlier changed its index methodology on May 1, adding a Fast Entry provision that lets newly listed companies join the Nasdaq-100 on an expedited basis if their full market cap ranks among the top 40 constituents, a move JPMorgan estimates brought about $4.3 billion in passive inflows into SPCX stock. SpaceX remains excluded from the S&P 500, which said in a June 4 press release that exceptions to financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization. For Q2 2026, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, and a net loss of $541 million, improving from a net loss of $1 billion a year earlier, while holding $93.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta circulated a note projecting Tesla robotaxi revenue of roughly $320 billion by 2035, with nearly all of it, about $314 billion, coming from a Tesla-owned and operated fleet rather than a customer-owned "Tesla Network." The framework effectively retires the long-standing pitch that individual owners would earn passive income by enrolling personal cars in a shared ride network, with owner-network contribution put at only about $5 billion of the $320 billion total. The note reframes the robotaxi opportunity as a capital-heavy mobility operator business, closer to a scaled-up Waymo than an asset-light software platform, and raises both the long-term ceiling on Tesla stock and the execution bar. Tesla reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $28.24B, up 25.5% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus, Q2 operating margin compressed to 1.4%, and free cash flow swung to -$1.09B. Robotaxi service now spans seven U.S. metros with 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions, up 56% year over year, and CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided 2026 capital expenditures above $25 billion to fund fleet expansion.