The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a financial institution that provides a range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through three segments: Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions. The Global Banking & Markets segment offers financial advisory services, underwriting, lending, financing, and client execution activities. The Asset & Wealth Management segment manages assets across various classes and provides investment advisory, wealth advisory, financial planning, and private banking services. The Platform Solutions segment offers credit cards, transaction banking, deposit-taking, payment solutions, and cash management services. Founded in 1869, the company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Nvidia-Backed Nscale Files for US IPO After $1.02 Billion Loss
Nscale, the London-based AI data center developer backed by Nvidia and Microsoft, filed publicly for an initial public offering in New York, seeking to raise as much as $3 billion. The company reported a net loss of $1.02 billion on revenue of $140.6 million for the six months ended June 30, compared with a net loss of $368.9 million on revenue of $10.4 million a year earlier, according to its Friday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Spun off from a cryptocurrency mining operation in early 2024, Nscale was valued at about $14.6 billion in a March Series C round led by Aker ASA and 8090 Industries, with Nvidia and Nokia Oyj also participating. The company has agreed to add more than 30,000 Nvidia chips to an existing rental agreement with Microsoft at its Narvik, Norway gigafactory, and Anthropic has agreed to spend $45 billion to rent AI cloud computing power from its flagship West Virginia data center development. The offering is being led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, with shares expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol NSCL.
Goldman Sachs Warns S&P 500 Earnings Growth Set to Cool
Goldman Sachs Group expects the rapid rise in S&P 500 earnings to cool rather than reverse, saying several temporary forces are currently lifting profits. S&P 500 earnings per share rose 51% year over year in the second quarter, with growth over the past four quarters reaching 26%, a pace the firm said has pushed profits above their longer-term trend, though the index's forward price-to-earnings ratio has eased to 19 from 23 a year ago and now matches its 10-year average. Artificial intelligence spending is a major contributor, with Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet expected to spend about $800 billion on capital projects this year, nearly double 2025 levels, and Goldman expects that earnings boost to fade as spending growth slows and depreciation rises. Semiconductor margins and gains from technology companies' investment holdings are also supporting earnings, and Goldman said weaker chip margins could cut S&P 500 earnings by about 10%, while investment gains that helped second-quarter profits are expected to contribute less in 2027.
Goldman Sachs Says Big Tech Valuation Premium Is Fading
Goldman Sachs Research says the forward price-to-earnings multiples of the largest S&P 500 companies have fallen sharply and are now converging toward the valuation of the other 495 stocks in the index, eroding a valuation premium mega-cap technology names have held for years. The firm points to two pressures behind the de-rating: a higher cost of capital and dramatically greater capital intensity. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Alphabet are committing enormous sums to artificial-intelligence infrastructure, including data centers, chips and power capacity, investments that may support future growth but consume cash today, while higher borrowing costs reduce the present value investors assign to future earnings and cash flows. Goldman's takeaway is that mega-cap tech is no longer priced as dramatically different from the rest of the market, leaving those companies to prove their growth deserves a premium, and investors should focus less on headline AI spending and more on the returns generated from it.
Goldman Maintains Year-End 2027 Gold Price Forecast at $5,400
Goldman Sachs has kept its gold price forecast for the end of 2027 at $5,400 per troy ounce, despite the recent U.S. interest rate hike. The bank said that while monetary tightening is expected to slow the pace of gold's rise, the upward trend itself will not break down. In a report, Goldman said the impact of tightening will show up mainly through a slower short-term pace of gains rather than an eventual decline in the gold price, and noted that continued diversification by central banks around the world is the key structural factor sustaining its bullish outlook on gold. On the other hand, it said a further strengthening of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance could trigger a significant correction in gold prices, and if the Fed raises rates three more times this year and signals a higher terminal rate, gold could fall to around $4,070. However, it expects continued central bank buying to support the market, with prices recovering to around $4,200 by the end of 2026.
Goldman Sachs Flips Fed Call Twice in Four Days, Now Sees October Rate Hike
Goldman Sachs reversed its Federal Reserve rate forecast twice in four days, telling clients on the morning of September 15, 2026 that it expected a hike the next day but not another one as its baseline, then shifting within hours of the September 16 decision to call for another 25-basis-point increase in October. The second change followed the Fed's updated rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on financial conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and the dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year while four projected two additional increases. The Fed also raised its 2026 headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation forecast to 3.7% and lifted its core inflation forecast. Bitcoin is trading near $76,300, up roughly 18% over the past month but about 34% below its level a year ago, while XRP is near $1.29 after gaining roughly 28% over the past month and remains about 56% lower year over year. An October hike would reach markets with less time to adjust than after September's fully priced move, and the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week for the first time since 2007.
Goldman Sachs CEO Warns of $500 Million Expense Hit in Third Quarter
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that third-quarter results could carry a less favorable mix, with non-compensation expenses running roughly $500 million above the prior quarter. Speaking Wednesday at the Barclays Financial Services Conference, Solomon said the bank's equity business remains very strong while fixed income, currencies and commodities has been a little bit softer on a relative basis. Several one-off factors are complicating the quarter, including a more muted contribution from investments after unusually strong activity in the second quarter, higher non-compensation transaction costs from elevated business activity and accelerated technology spending, and several years of charitable giving pulled forward in a very, very tax-efficient way. Loan-loss provisions should also be slightly higher than a year ago because of idiosyncratic factors. Solomon said corporate CEO confidence is high and noted that S&P 500 earnings growth is running about 30% above expectations from the start of the year, and he believes roughly 6% revenue growth could translate into more than 10% earnings growth as technology improves efficiency and operating leverage.
Goldman Sachs Arranges $22b AI Chip Financing Package Linked to Blackstone and Alphabet's Crux AI
Goldman Sachs Group is arranging a reported $22b AI chip financing package linked to Blackstone and Alphabet's Crux AI venture, working with Crux AI as part of a broader push to support capital-intensive AI infrastructure projects. The bank is simultaneously expanding its private equity alternatives platform with fresh fundraises across its global private markets franchise, including new West Street funds. Goldman Sachs Group, a US-based capital markets heavyweight with a reported $295.7 billion market cap, is leaning into both AI financing and alternatives as it seeks to tilt earnings toward steadier fee income and capital-light businesses. The reported $22b AI chip financing package plays directly into that capital-light financing thesis, keeping the bank close to high-demand AI infrastructure in the same way JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley pursue large tech-related financings. The missing piece, according to the report, is how consistently Goldman can turn these AI and alternatives mandates into durable, fee-based flows when analysts have already flagged pressure on expenses and some softness in fixed income trading.
Crux AI Secures $22 Billion Debt Financing to Buy Google TPUs
Crux AI, the cloud venture backed by Google and Blackstone, has secured $22 billion in debt financing to buy Google-developed Tensor Processing Units, according to Bloomberg. Ten banks are reportedly providing the financing, including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, BNP Paribas and Bank of Nova Scotia, with the debt backed partly by the value of Google's TPUs and partly by customer contracts signed by Crux AI. Blackstone has separately committed an initial $5 billion in equity. Crux AI plans to bring its first 500 megawatts of data-center capacity online in 2027, a test of whether customers will adopt Google's chips on a much larger scale outside Google's own ecosystem. The $22 billion solves part of the funding problem, and investors will be watching how quickly Crux AI fills that first 500 megawatts.
Trip.com Beats Estimates as Diamondback Falls on $1.9 Billion Block Trade
Trip.com Group Limited reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 cents, sending its shares up 3%. Shares of Diamondback Energy, Inc. fell 8% after largest shareholder SGF Capital executed a $1.9 billion block trade. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. shares fell 4% as financial stocks sold off on the Fed's rate hike and indications of additional tightening. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. gained 5.2% after the company announced plans for its 14th Starship test launch, targeted for Sept. 22.
PNC Lifts 2026 Non-Interest Income Growth Outlook to About 9% on Record Capital Markets Pace
PNC Financial raised its 2026 non-interest income growth outlook to approximately 9%, excluding integration costs and significant items, up from its previous target of 6%, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance, record-paced capital-markets activity and stronger cross-selling. Speaking at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference, CFO Robert Q. Reilly said the company's fee businesses are having a strong year and he expects the momentum to continue, after fee income grew at a compound annual growth rate of 7.7% over the five years ended 2025. Capital markets is on pace for a record year, and as of June 30, 2026, PNC's capital markets and advisory accounted for approximately 20.8% of total noninterest income, with revenues from those businesses up 65.9% year over year in the first half of 2026. The investment-banking business Harris Williams is also on track for a record year, after the 2025 acquisition of Aqueduct Capital Group added private-equity and private-credit capital-raising capabilities and the 2023 merger with Sixpoint Partners expanded capital-solutions and primary-fund-placement capabilities. Fee-generating businesses including capital markets, M&A advisory and treasury management now account for about 40% of corporate-bank revenue, and the January 2026 acquisition of FirstBank, converted in June 2026, expanded PNC's presence across Colorado and Arizona, with Colorado emerging as its fastest-growing asset-management market. Among peers, Goldman Sachs held its No. 1 position in announced and completed M&A in the first half of 2026 with investment-banking fees up 52% year over year to $6.2 billion, while JPMorgan retained its No. 1 global ranking in investment-banking fees with a 9.3% wallet share.
Goldman Sachs Raises $11.7 Billion for Private-Equity Funds as Shares Fall 2.6%
Goldman Sachs raised $11.7 billion across a fresh group of private-equity funds through its asset-management arm, even as its shares fell approximately 2.6% to $963.55 on Tuesday. The haul includes $9.6 billion for West Street Capital Partners IX, $1.6 billion for an Asia-focused strategy and another $500 million for co-investment vehicles, putting roughly 82% of the total in the flagship fund, which has already deployed more than one-third of its capital. Goldman expects the money to be invested over roughly four to four-and-a-half years. Goldman Sachs Alternatives managed $459 billion at the end of June and is aiming for $750 billion by 2030, so the $11.7 billion raise represents about 2.5% of the current platform. The shares at $963.55 sit 16.33% above the GuruFocus GF Value estimate of $828.31, a premium that raises the bar for deployment returns, exits and recurring fee growth.
Goldman Sachs Panic Index Plunges Three Points as Risks Mount
Goldman Sachs' Panic Index fell three points Friday, its third-largest single-day decline in three years, signaling that investor anxiety has faded sharply even as major risks intensify. The drop left substantially less fear priced into the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq entering the weekend, while the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, remained well below the closely watched 20 level at roughly 16.90. That calm contrasts with a deteriorating macro backdrop: semiconductor and AI stocks are retreating after prominent technology executives called for slowing AI development, crude oil has climbed above $100 per barrel amid Middle East attacks and Saudi pipeline disruptions, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached the key 5% level ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, which markets largely expect to include a rate increase. Investors had also rebuilt long positions in technology stocks even as market performance remained unusually dispersed. The biggest near-term test is Wednesday's Fed decision, with investors also watching whether the VIX stays below 20, whether the 10-year yield holds above 5%, and whether oil remains above $100.
Colgate-Palmolive Explores Sale of Softsoap, Irish Spring and Speed Stick in Over $1 Billion Divestiture
Colgate-Palmolive is reportedly exploring the sale of several mass-market personal care brands, including Softsoap, Irish Spring and Speed Stick, in a portfolio reshaping effort that could generate more than $1 billion, with the company working with Goldman Sachs on the potential divestiture. Personal care accounted for roughly 17% of Colgate-Palmolive's 2025 net sales, or about $3.5 billion, while oral care remains the company's largest business. The move comes as Colgate faces pressure in North America, where organic sales declined 3% even as the company recently reported a 4.9% increase in net sales. The strategy is consistent with a broader consumer-goods shift toward simplifying portfolios and concentrating capital on higher-growth categories, with Unilever, Nestlé and other major consumer companies similarly selling slower-growing or non-core businesses. Analysts note the divestiture could sharpen strategic focus and free up capital for debt reduction, share repurchases or investment behind stronger brands, but warn that a smaller portfolio does not guarantee faster growth and that selling mature brands into a difficult market could yield a disappointing valuation.
Goldman Sachs Alternatives has closed its latest private equity fundraising at $11.7 billion, the firm said on Tuesday. Of that total, $9.6 billion went to West Street Capital Partners IX, the ninth iteration of the unit's flagship buyout fund, while $1.6 billion was committed to West Street Asia Equity Partners I, an Asia-focused strategy, and $500 million flowed into co-investment vehicles. West Street Capital Partners IX drew commitments from institutional and high-net-worth investors across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, with Goldman Sachs and its employees contributing meaningfully, and the fund has already deployed more than one-third of its capital. Michael Bruun, global co-head of private equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, told Reuters the firm plans to deploy the capital over roughly four to four-and-a-half years, typically targeting businesses valued between $500 million and $2 billion to $3 billion and holding each position for four to five years. As of June 30, Goldman Sachs Alternatives managed $459 billion in assets under supervision, against a target of $750 billion by the close of 2030.
Anthropic Pursues $2 Trillion Nasdaq IPO With Nvidia Backing
Anthropic is moving forward with an initial public offering on Nasdaq that could value the company at $2 trillion, with Nvidia reportedly weighing a contribution of around $10 billion to the offering. The company more than doubled its revenue to $11.6 billion in the second quarter and could seek to raise as much as $100 billion, both figures that would surpass what SpaceX achieved when it went public in June at a $1.77 trillion valuation. Anthropic is preparing to tell IPO investors that its potential revenue opportunity exceeds $30 trillion, and investors have projected annualized revenue will reach between $100 billion and $120 billion before year's end, more than tenfold growth from the $47 billion reported in May. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are leading the offering, and the company filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June. The road to a listing carries risks: Anthropic's top model is priced more than 2.5 times higher than OpenAI's flagship offering, revenue growth slowed in June after the U.S. Commerce Department imposed a temporary export control on its best models, and the company remains in active litigation against the U.S. Department of Defense, which designated it a supply-chain risk earlier this year. Rival OpenAI has also filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a potential fall listing at an $852 billion valuation.
Goldman Sachs Reiterates Buy on Meta as Muse Agent Launch Fuels $2.4 Billion Subscription Case
Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan reiterated a Buy rating on Meta Platforms with a $725.00 price target on September 14, citing increased conviction after Meta's litigation settlement and the launch of its AI agent Muse. Muse offers three tiers: a free version capped at 100 million weekly tokens, a $20 per-month power plan with 500 million weekly tokens, and a $100 Maximum tier offering 3 billion weekly tokens and priority access. Goldman argues Meta's distribution advantage is decisive, noting the company reported an average of 3.6 billion daily active people across its applications in June and Q2 revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year. Under the bull case, 10 million Muse subscribers would represent just 0.28% of that 3.6 billion user base, with the $20 power plan generating $200 million in monthly revenue, or $2.4 billion annually, while roughly 2 million subscribers on the $100 Maximum tier would produce the same $2.4 billion, less than 0.06% of the daily-user base. Goldman flags privacy and security as the biggest risk, coming just after Meta agreed to a multi-billion dollar settlement over claims it designed products in ways that harmed user wellbeing without disclosing the risks, and notes each Muse agent runs in an isolated Linux container on a dedicated virtual machine and can run tasks after the application is closed, potentially requiring substantially more compute. At the end of the second quarter, 254 hedge funds held Meta stock, modestly down from 262 in the prior quarter.
Brent tops $108 as Goldman Sachs sees chance of a surge above $120
Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 2% to top $108 a barrel after attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure left the East-West pipeline still out of service. Brent futures rose $2.50, or 2.37%, to $108.18 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $2.46, or 2.43%, to $103.85 a barrel. Yemen's Houthis launched a new round of attacks on Saudi Arabia on Monday, firing dozens of missiles and drones at an air base in the southern city of Khamis Mushait, following Friday's attack that Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed militants in Iraq, which halted the East-West pipeline. The pipeline had carried about one-fifth of global oil supply, and the disruption could put as much as 4% of global oil supply at risk. Goldman Sachs said the damage could be more severe than estimated and could affect the remaining oil exports of about 2 million barrels per day through Yanbu, adding that the attack increases the likelihood that Brent will surge above $120 a barrel. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just 4 vessels on Monday from 10 the previous day, according to preliminary Kpler data.
Corning Shares Fall 12.7% After $2 Billion At-The-Market Stock Sale Deal With Goldman Sachs
Corning shares fell 12.7% in the afternoon session after the company disclosed an at-the-market equity distribution agreement with Goldman Sachs to sell up to $2 billion of its common stock. Under the terms of the agreement, Corning can offer and sell shares of common stock from time to time through Goldman Sachs as sales agent. The decline reflects investor concerns surrounding shareholder dilution, since an at-the-market offering issues newly created shares directly into the public market, increasing the total outstanding share count and potentially diminishing existing shareholders' proportional ownership and earnings per share. The sizable $2 billion program prompted immediate selling pressure as market participants weighed the potential dilutive impact on equity value. The move follows a 8.7% gain 6 days ago, when Corning announced a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar supply agreement with Verizon through 2032 to deliver more than 80 million miles of high-density optical fiber and advanced connectivity solutions.
Wall Street Shifts to Expecting a September FOMC Rate Hike; Dollar Index Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average Again
Major Wall Street financial institutions have shifted to expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase concluded that the August consumer price index reading justified a rate hike and switched to forecasting an increase at the September FOMC. Short-term money markets have priced in a probability of more than 90 percent for a September rate hike, and hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller at the Jackson Hole annual symposium emphasizing the need to address inflation also bolstered rate-hike expectations. JPMorgan Chase said core PCE has remained above 3 percent since the start of the year with no visible progress toward the 2 percent target, and expects rate hikes in both September and December, whereas as of July it had assumed only a December increase. Goldman Sachs strategists forecast the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75 percent by year-end, and TD Bank also raised its forecast from 4.25 percent to 4.75 percent. Meanwhile, after Saudi Arabia halted operations on its main east-west pipeline as a precautionary measure on the 10th following repeated attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi armed group in Yemen, crude oil prices once again reached the 100 dollar level, with New York crude futures rising as high as 104.68 dollars on the 14th.
Corning Falls 12% on $2 Billion At-the-Market Equity Offering
Corning disclosed a $2 billion at-the-market equity distribution program with Goldman Sachs as exclusive sales agent, sending its shares down 12% to $145.61 in Monday afternoon trading and making it the worst performer in the S&P 500. The open-ended structure sets no fixed price or share count, leaving Corning in control of timing and size, and net proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes under a shelf registration filed earlier this year. The selloff spread across the AI optical connectivity group, with Coherent down 11% to $273.30, Lumentum down 9% to $843, and Fabrinet down 6% to $389.69, declines the article attributes to sympathy selling tied to weekend commentary from senior AI laboratory figures urging a slower pace of frontier capability gains. NVIDIA sits at the center of that read-through as the key optical connectivity customer, and it has separately committed funding through a warrant arrangement to support Corning's optical capacity expansion. Corning has guided Q3 2026 core sales of $4.9 billion to $5 billion, and the article notes that the company's next disclosure on program usage could matter more to the price than the headline dollar figure.
Fed Set to Decide on Rate Hike at September 16 Meeting
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Sept. 16, with expectations of a rate hike amid elevated inflation and CPI prices. Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said a 25 basis point increase would not resolve supply issues but warned that without a monetary policy response, inflation risks running away and inflation expectations could stay elevated. He noted that PPI components mapping to PCE do not yet convince that inflation is on a durable path back to 2%. Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Ines Ferré said gasoline and diesel prices are at record highs for this time of year, and noted Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates next. Gil, speaking about client concerns, said higher rates raise the discount rate on long-duration equities, pressuring tech and growth stocks, and would make debt-financed data center buildouts by CoreWeave and Oracle more expensive, slowing the AI complex.
Goldman Sachs Lifts 2035 Humanoid Robot Forecast Nearly Fivefold to 6.5 Million Units
Goldman Sachs raised its 2035 forecast for humanoid robot shipments to approximately 6.5 million units, up from about 1.4 million previously, a nearly fivefold increase, in its recently published 80-page Physical AI report. The bank also lifted its 2030 forecast from 256,000 to 890,000 units and its 2026 estimate from 51,000 to 75,000, and now values the 2035 humanoid market at roughly $138 billion versus its previous $38 billion estimate. Goldman estimates each humanoid could carry $3,000 to more than $6,000 of semiconductor content, which at 6.5 million units would translate into roughly $19.5 billion to $39 billion of annual chip demand. The bank expects logistics and warehousing to lead adoption, with automotive manufacturing following, and estimates Amazon's broader automation efforts could produce about $72 billion in cumulative service-cost savings from 2026 through 2030, potentially adding as much as 240 basis points to operating margins in an upside scenario. Goldman still flags reliability, limited real-world training data, autonomy and cost as obstacles, while Morgan Stanley has predicted 1 billion humanoid robots by 2050 and RBC Capital Markets calls it a $9 trillion market by then.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank are now forecasting a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at this week's Sept. 15-16 meeting, a reversal driven by stronger-than-expected inflation readings and rising oil prices, according to Reuters. The four institutions are aligned on a quarter-point increase, and several see rates staying higher for longer as the Fed pursues its 2% inflation target. Market odds of a hike this week stood at roughly 88% to 89%, compared with 67% to 70% before last week's inflation data. August inflation data came in hotter than anticipated, with a closely watched gauge of core prices notching its biggest monthly jump in four months, while crude oil crossed $100 a barrel as hostilities in the Middle East intensified. JPMorgan economists led by Michael Feroli said the prior week featured rising bond yields and energy prices and a firm enough set of inflation readings to make a rate hike more likely than not, and the bank raised its estimate of the long-run policy rate to 3.25%. Goldman Sachs maintained its outlook for two Fed rate cuts in 2027, though pushed back from its earlier timeline, after having called a September increase very unlikely as recently as last month, when CME FedWatch data put the odds at around 30%.
Goldman Revises Forecast to Expect Bank of England Rate Hike in November
Goldman Sachs said on the 14th that it now expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November, revising its previous forecast that rates would be held steady throughout the year. In a report, analysts noted that wholesale energy prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, headline inflation has climbed by more than the central bank anticipated, and growth indicators have also been solid. Goldman expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.75% at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the 17th, in line with the broad market consensus. It also expects that after the November hike, rates are likely to be held steady as falling energy prices reduce the need for further tightening, with rate cuts beginning in late 2027. According to LSEG data, the market has priced in a total of 47 basis points of rate increases by the end of the year.
Oil Above $100 Revives Recession Talk as Diesel Hits Record $6
Brent Crude topped $100 per barrel for the first time since July and WTI Crude also exceeded $100 a barrel this week, sharply raising the odds of a Fed interest rate hike next week and re-launching the recession conversation for the first time since the early weeks of the Iran war. The CME FedWatch gauge showed traders putting the chances of a 0.25-basis point hike at next week's Fed meeting at 72.4% as of September 10, up from 49.4% a week earlier. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius told Yahoo Finance the bank has scaled back its 12-month recession risk estimate to 15% from about 30% in March, but would raise it again if another shock hits, and said its roughly 1.5% second-half GDP growth projection does not build in another major shock. Diesel, the main fuel of the economy, has just hit a $6 per gallon average in the United States for the first time ever, after breaking the all-time record of $5.85 last week, while U.S. gasoline prices are at a record high for this time of year. The cushions that kept the oil market subdued since March have largely vanished: U.S. crude stocks in the strategic reserve are at their lowest level since the early 1980s, China has eased restrictions on fuel exports and returned to buying more crude with imports rebounding from the decade-low seen in June, and crude flows from the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to an estimated half to two-thirds of pre-war levels while fuel supply remains severely limited.
Goldman's Snider Says AI Capex Drives Half of S&P 500 Earnings Growth
Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snider said on CNBC's Squawk on the Street that AI investment spending is driving about half of S&P 500 earnings growth. Snider noted the index traded at 22x earnings at the start of the year and now sits at 19x with the index near a high, and that the ten-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.83 percent from close to 4 percent a year ago. The growth leans on a small group of buyers: NVIDIA posted Q2 FY27 revenue of $96.22 billion, up 105.8 percent year over year, with data center at $89.02 billion, while Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.70 billion in Q3, up 221 percent year over year, with a Q4 outlook of $21.7 billion. Microsoft, on the buyer side, carries full-year capex of $115.95 billion and an FY27 capex expectation of roughly $175 billion, and its 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats with commercial remaining performance obligations up 84 percent to $678 billion. Snider said Goldman's positioning indicator is at its lowest level since March, even with the market near a high, while September seasonality and the next CPI release add near-term risk with the VIX at 16.46 and the target rate at 3.75 percent.
Goldman Sachs Says Earnings, Not Rate Shock, Will Keep Bull Market Intact
Goldman Sachs strategists expect strong corporate earnings and healthy balance sheets to keep the bull market intact even as rising Treasury yields squeeze stock valuations. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to nearly 5% this week, its highest level since October 2023, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.3%, a level not seen in almost 20 years, and Goldman economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting following a hotter-than-expected inflation report. Strategist Ben Snider attributed the rise in longer-term yields to higher oil prices, solid economic growth, heavy artificial intelligence investment and expectations for tighter Fed policy. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio has declined to 19 from 22 at the beginning of the year, yet the index remains within 2% of its record high, and Goldman estimates roughly 75% to 80% of the S&P 500's present value comes from cash flows more than a decade into the future, making equities especially sensitive to the speed of the bond selloff. Home-construction shares have underperformed the equal-weighted S&P 500 by 16 percentage points since June, while financial stocks may benefit from higher rates, and announced U.S. merger volume has reached $1.4 trillion this year with global activity up 36% from a year earlier.
Nvidia Partners With Apollo, BlackRock, KKR to Raise $500 Billion for AI Infrastructure
Nvidia is partnering with Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to raise over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure, as Bank of America warns the sector may need about $1.2 trillion of external finance to support AI capital expenditures forecast to exceed $5 trillion between 2026 and 2030. Bank of America says major chip suppliers are taking on an unexpected role as credit intermediaries, helping remove financial risks that make massive AI data centers difficult or expensive to finance through minimum revenue commitments, take-or-pay contracts, and residual value guarantees. Broadcom's AI XPV Platform has secured senior notes and the remaining value of chips covering $31 billion of an initial $35 billion loan package arranged with Apollo and Blackstone, nearly 87% of the debt package, with the guaranteed portion priced at 5.75% against 8.5% for an unsecured second lien. In August, Nvidia said it would provide finance assistance for land, electricity, and construction at SB Energy's PORTS-Pike Technology Campus in Ohio, with a first rollout of 4.25 gigawatts of AI factory capacity expected to be used by OpenAI, and Nvidia also said it was investing $1.5 billion in SB Energy. Broadcom on Sept. 2 reported $16.7 billion in AI semiconductor sales for its fiscal third quarter, up 221% from a year earlier, and CEO Hock Tan said the company expects AI semiconductor revenue of about $21.7 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, an increase of 236% year-over-year.
Moonshot AI Targets $2 Billion ARR and $50 Billion Hong Kong IPO
Moonshot AI is aiming to double its annual recurring revenue to $2 billion by the end of 2026, strengthening the Chinese startup's case for a potential Hong Kong IPO at a reported $50 billion valuation. The company told investors that annual recurring revenue surpassed $1 billion in August, up from roughly $300 million in June, according to Bloomberg, with management targeting $2 billion by year-end driven primarily by its Kimi K3 model, which launched in July. Moonshot is reportedly discussing revenue-sharing arrangements with Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet's Google that could broaden access to Kimi, and it is preparing to raise roughly $3 billion through a Hong Kong listing, with Goldman Sachs, China International Capital Corp. and Deutsche Bank working on the potential offering. The startup, known for its Kimi family of large-language models, is attempting to pair strong model performance with pricing below leading U.S. competitors, a combination that could matter more as corporations scrutinize the cost of deploying generative AI at scale. Regulatory approval, IPO market conditions and competitive pricing remain key risks, and investors will watch whether the revenue acceleration survives beyond Kimi K3's initial launch cycle.
Goldman, BofA, JPMorgan among banks vying to manage Anthropic employees' IPO wealth
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo are in talks with Anthropic over managing the wealth its employees are expected to gain after the AI company's initial public offering, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News. The banks are competing to send Anthropic employees a list of financial advisers, and Anthropic has requested details about fees, services, and other aspects of wealth management, according to some of the sources, who asked not to be identified because the communications are private. The company's IPO is expected to create vast wealth for its employees, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
Goldman Sachs Reinstates Element Solutions at Buy With $44 Price Target
Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage of Element Solutions with a Buy rating and a $44 price target, sending the shares wobbling between small gains and losses in Friday's trading. Analysts led by Duffy Fischer called the termination of the Solstice merger a positive catalyst, saying it removes risk, prevents dilution, and allows ESI management to focus on high-return organic projects. The analysts pointed to robust underlying demand from AI infrastructure and data center buildouts as a primary growth engine, and said the company's asset-light model lets it capture high-margin AI growth faster than peers. Element Solutions continues to reshape its earnings mix through strategic transactions, including the divestiture of its graphics business and bolt-on acquisitions such as EFC and Micromax, and Goldman expects more deals over the next several years. The shares are down about 10% since the deal was announced, which the analysts view as an attractive entry point given a significant valuation discount to peers that should shrink over time.
Goldman Sachs Opens Bellevue Engineering Office for AI and Cloud
Goldman Sachs has opened a new engineering office in Bellevue, Washington, that will house more than 125 employees working on AI and cloud technology, according to a September 8 report from Reuters. The move gives the firm a larger presence in the Pacific Northwest and puts it closer to a deep pool of technology talent. Goldman already employs more than 12,000 engineers worldwide, roughly a quarter of its workforce, and the new Bellevue site adds to that global total. The office is intended to help Goldman attract specialists in AI and cloud computing, where competition for talent is intense, and to apply the technology across its existing businesses rather than as a standalone operation. The firm faces high hiring and retention costs in the Seattle-area market, rapid changes in AI technology, and strict regulatory and cybersecurity requirements that could slow adoption.
Goldman Sachs Names Farshid Asl and Matt Weir Co-Heads of Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs has appointed Farshid Asl and Matt Weir as co-heads of its Investment Strategy Group, succeeding Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, according to an internal memo seen by Private Banker International. Within Goldman Sachs Wealth Management, the Investment Strategy Group serves as the chief investment office, guiding asset allocation and portfolio strategy for private clients around the world. Asl currently leads Strategic and Quantitative Asset Allocation globally within the group, while Weir is a senior member of ISG with a principal focus on equity markets. Asl will remain based in New York, while Weir will continue to work from San Francisco. Mossavar-Rahmani is set to retire later this year after more than three decades at Goldman Sachs, having joined the firm as a partner in 1993.
OpenAI Closes $122 Billion Raise at $852 Billion Valuation
OpenAI finalized a $122 billion capital raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation on March 31, 2026, a round the company frames as its transition from experimental model lab to foundational infrastructure utility. The headline figure is a hybrid assembly of vendor compute commitments, contingent capital, and traditional equity rather than simple cash: NVIDIA's $30 billion contribution is weighted toward hardware and compute access, while Amazon's $50 billion commitment acts as a ceiling tied to milestones such as AGI development or an IPO by year-end. Amazon joins NVIDIA and SoftBank as an anchor investor, reshaping the landscape alongside Microsoft, which remains a core partner with over $13 billion in prior cumulative investment. The round drew more than $3 billion in retail participation and inclusion in three ARK Invest ETFs, and is paired with a $4.7 billion revolving credit facility backed by an 11-bank syndicate including JPMorgan, Citi, and Goldman Sachs. OpenAI reports 900 million weekly active users and a $25 billion annualized run rate, up from $6 billion at the end of 2024, supported by the March 2026 launch of GPT-5.4; CFO Sarah Friar has shifted the IPO to 2027, and a confidential S-1 was filed on June 8, 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Goldman Sachs Raises Micron and Amazon Stakes in Second Quarter
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its stakes in Micron Technology and Amazon.com during the second quarter of 2026, according to its latest 13F filing. The bank added 5.53 million shares of Micron, ending the quarter with 18.1 million shares worth $20.9 billion, and added over 465,000 shares of Amazon, finishing with 68.2 million shares worth $16.2 billion. Amazon was the most widely held stock among the billionaires tracked by Insider Monkey, with 62 billionaires holding shares, up from 59 in the first quarter, while Micron climbed to the 10th most popular stock with 41 billionaire holders, up from 35. Stanley Druckenmiller, Peter Thiel, Seth Klarman, and David Tepper all bought Amazon during the quarter, drawn by its AI exposure through Amazon Web Services, whose revenue jumped about 37% year over year in the second quarter. Amazon's chip business, including Trainium and Graviton, is already running at roughly a $25 billion annualized revenue rate and growing at triple-digit percentages, though the company expects roughly $220 billion of capital expenditures in 2026 and free cash flow has already come under pressure.
Goldman Calls Freeport-McMoRan Selloff an Overreaction After Copper Tariff Report
Goldman Sachs analyst Nick Cash reiterated his Buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan, calling the market's reaction an overreaction after a Reuters report said the Trump administration has not yet decided on refined copper tariffs. Freeport-McMoRan shares fell 7% in Thursday's trading, and copper futures traded 3% to 5% lower, as markets unwound some pricing of potential tariffs. An announcement has been expected on whether the U.S. would impose a 15% tariff on copper cathode, potentially starting in January 2027 and then rising to 30% in 2028. Cash said the publication provided no new information on whether policymakers will implement tariffs or continue to delay commentary on them, and that the stock's sudden drop has given investors an attractive entry point.
Bank of America Flags $163 Billion Forced-Selling Risk as Systematic Buying Capacity Nears Exhaustion
Bank of America estimates that systematic strategies including commodity trading advisers and volatility-control funds hold only about $9 billion of remaining buying capacity if stocks rise, against as much as $163 billion in potential forced selling if markets decline, an 18-to-1 imbalance. The bank's model assumes CTA assets under management of approximately $300 billion and volatility-control strategies each managing about $200 billion, with the $163 billion figure tied to a significant decline whose actual flows depend on the speed of any pullback. Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner traced the imbalance to the speed of the July recovery, which rebuilt systematic exposure to near-capacity levels and consumed much of the buying buffer, and characterized the month as a tactical downside window. Deutsche Bank data show volatility-control strategy equity allocations at the 100th historical percentile, while Goldman Sachs estimates global CTA net long equity exposure at approximately $146.5 billion, near the top of its historical range. Investors withdrew a net $11.12 billion from U.S. equity funds in the week ended September 2, the second consecutive weekly outflow, after $22.72 billion the prior week, and Neuberger Berman's Rebekah McMillan warned that the largest AI-focused spenders cut repurchases by 32% to fund data-center buildouts while financial companies lifted buybacks to a record $287 billion. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett's Bull and Bear Indicator has stayed in sell-signal territory since May 2026, reaching 9.7 in early August, its highest since 2021, and Rubner suggested a more constructive re-entry point could emerge around mid-October if September delivers the expected positioning reset.
Investors Price In 70% Odds of Fed Rate Hike Next Week After WTI Tops $100
Investors have raised their bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its September 16 meeting, after the release of the August producer price index and a surge in West Texas Intermediate crude above $100 a barrel. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool shows investors assigning a 70.0% probability to a 0.25% rate hike on September 16, up from 61.2% a day earlier, and a 30.0% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75%, down from 38.8%. The U.S. Labor Department reported that headline PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above the 5.3% analysts expected and up from 4.8% in July, while on a monthly basis it rose 0.4%, in line with forecasts, after a 0.1% gain in July. Core PPI rose 4.6% year on year, in line with expectations, from 4.3% in July, and rose 0.2% month on month, below the 0.3% forecast, from 0.3% in July. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged past $105 a barrel amid tensions between the United States and Iran. Dan Struyven, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the conflict, now in its seventh month, is raising the risk that oil prices could climb above $120 a barrel as Iran intensifies attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius warns AI investment boom will not last forever
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius warned that the aggressive spending on artificial intelligence will not continue indefinitely, saying "it will not go on forever" at the firm's Communacopia & Tech conference. Hatzius said it is possible many of these investments will prove unproductive, a downside scenario he said cannot be excluded, and that even under a positive verdict on the build-out there will eventually be a slowdown. His baseline assumption is that AI spending is sustainable, productive and contributes to stronger productivity growth, but he noted that a new technology build-out naturally moves from an investment phase, when spending rises substantially, to an exploitation phase, when investment falls, creating challenges for those who assumed the boom would continue forever. The warning comes as projections for AI infrastructure spending remain extremely high: global investment in AI infrastructure will hit a record $31.6 trillion through to 2050, according to baseline projections in PwC's new Global Data Centre Outlook, with annual data center capital expenditures forecast to rise from roughly $800 billion per year in 2026 to $1.8 trillion per year in 2050. PwC said AI infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate as chips and other internet-connected equipment require upgrades every few years, and PwC global infrastructure leader of Australia Clara Cutajar said AI infrastructure is becoming one of the defining capital allocation challenges of the next generation, cutting across technology, energy, real estate, supply chains, regulation and financing. Companies from Meta to Google to Microsoft are investing billions to support their AI ambitions.
Analysts Split on Apple as Foldable iPhone Duo Debuts at $1,999
Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the Duo, priced at $1,999, at its "Surprise and Shine" event, where new chief executive John Ternus also introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max. Citi kept a Buy rating and $365 price target on Apple, calling the Duo the "biggest new hardware category" since the Apple Watch and AirPods, and said the new Siri AI was the most important software announcement as Apple moves toward an AI agent built into iOS 27. Goldman Sachs, which also has a Buy rating, said the decision to split the iPhone 18 launch should support average selling price growth, aided by $100 price increases on the Pro models and a new 2-terabyte storage tier. Oppenheimer reiterated a Perform rating, expecting the Duo to become "the most successful foldable phone on the market" but cautioning that supply is likely limited to 8 million to 10 million units this year. Needham's Laura Martin kept a Hold rating, praising Ternus's take-charge style but warning that the lack of low-end iPhones until spring threatens near-term unit sales and that Apple's AI integration felt "too little, too late."
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