Satellite Broadband, MSS & Ground Equipment

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on SpaceX, implying roughly 99% upside, as investors await Starship's first orbital test on September 22. The 14th Starship flight is expected to send the vehicle into orbit and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites, tying the launch directly to one of SpaceX's biggest growth businesses. CEO Elon Musk has said Starlink V3 deployment will begin in September and that the next-generation satellites could eventually deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of the current constellation. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned maintained an Outperform rating with a $248 target, implying about 64% upside, and said gaining Starship reusability to enable orbital data centers remains most important for SpaceX's valuation; he expects the Connectivity business to generate more than $100 billion in EBITDA by 2031. William Blair analyst Louis DiPalma called the latest deal SpaceXAI's fourth compute agreement in the past four months exceeding $11 billion in ARR, while Wall Street's average SpaceX price target stands at $232.07, implying about 54% upside.

Viasat, Inc. announced that its ViaSat-3 F2 satellite has entered service across the Americas, completing the ViaSat-3 constellation and significantly expanding the company's network capacity, flexibility and resilience in the region. The satellite is designed to provide more than one terabit per second of throughput capacity over the Americas, with advanced beamforming technology that dynamically allocates capacity to high-demand flight routes, shipping lanes and geographic regions. With ViaSat-3 F1 already in service and F3 entering service across Asia-Pacific in August, completion of the ViaSat-3 constellation has tripled the bandwidth available across Viasat's global fleet, supporting its aviation, maritime, government and broadband customers. Chairman and CEO Mark Dankberg called the milestone a major step for Viasat and its customers, saying the VS3 satellites are the most advanced commercial satellites in the world in terms of adaptive beam forming, user performance and resilience to interference, and that the technology sets new commercial standards for solar power generation and thermal dissipation. Viasat, based in Carlsbad, California, completed its acquisition of Inmarsat in May 2023.

Baron Capital holds roughly $25 billion in SpaceX shares, and founder Ron Baron projects that Starlink alone can grow into a $1 trillion revenue line within a decade. SpaceX, trading under the ticker SPCX, closed at $150.88 on September 16, 2026, up 5.15% on the session but down 6.26% from its post-IPO reference, with a market capitalization near $1.16 trillion. SpaceX's Q2 connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion, up 66% year over year, with enterprise and government revenue inside that line growing 108%, even as consumer ARPU slipped from $85 to $66. Baron's model rests on expanding the constellation to 100,000 satellites, with each generation deorbited every five years and replaced by hardware ten times more capable, a plan that depends on Starship V3 cutting the cost to orbit by 99% or more. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capex in Q2 alone, including $15.83 billion on AI compute, and placed a $25 billion inaugural investment-grade bond issuance to fund the buildout, according to Baron Capital. GAO researchers reviewing space-based data centers in April 2026 flagged that cooling at scale remains unproven because heat disperses poorly in the vacuum of space, and that on-orbit servicing is underdeveloped, undercutting Baron's claim that orbital compute costs just $2 one time. The near-term milestone to watch is the Starship V3 test-flight cadence, since a launch-economics breakthrough is the single variable that decides whether the 100,000-satellite plan is arithmetic or fiction.

Nigerian Communications Satellite Limited, known as NIGCOMSAT, has selected EchoStar's Hughes JUPITER scalable gateway system to support its NIGCOMSAT-2A and 2B satellites. Ground network preparation and deployment are scheduled to begin in 2026, ahead of planned satellite launches in 2028 and 2029. The long-term contract underscores EchoStar's expanding role in providing secure, high-capacity satellite connectivity across Africa and reinforces its position in next-generation, infrastructure-level communications projects. The win adds evidence of international demand for EchoStar's infrastructure, though the company's near-term picture remains focused on execution on new networks against a stressed balance sheet and large upcoming maturities. EchoStar's enlarged US$5,000 million buyback authorization stands out as its most relevant recent announcement, sitting alongside high leverage and negative free cash flow. EchoStar's narrative projects $13.2 billion in revenue and $775.8 million in earnings by 2029, assuming revenue declines of 3.4% per year and an earnings increase of about $6.5 billion from -$5.7 billion today, with a $128.43 fair value estimate implying 39% upside.

SpaceX shares rose 5.1% to $151 in mid-morning trading Wednesday, pushing the stock back above the $150 level it first reached when it began trading June 12 following an IPO priced at $135. The catalyst was fresh policy news: U.S. defense officials confirmed on-orbit space-control weapons and highlighted progress on the Golden Dome interceptor program, tied to multibillion-dollar SpaceX contracts awarded earlier this year, pointing investors toward Starshield, SpaceX's national security satellite business, which already holds more than $6 billion in multi-year Space Force contracts for LEO-based communications and sensing. The Pentagon's FY 2027 budget request carries a $17.9 billion Golden Dome line item covering advanced space-based and terrestrial sensors, command and control, kinetic interceptors, and next-generation non-kinetic programs, and SpaceX is the only operator with a proliferated LEO constellation at production scale. The fundamental backdrop supports the move: the August 4 8-K showed Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, beating the $6.82 billion consensus by 15%, with EPS of -$0.09 versus the -$0.29 estimate, Starlink subscribers doubling to 12.0 million, connectivity revenue up 66% year over year, and enterprise and government revenue climbing 108% on airline partnerships and Starshield contracts. Traditional missile-defense primes Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman all sit inside the Golden Dome supply chain for interceptors, sensors, and integration, while pure-play space names like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile tend to move with SpaceX headlines; SpaceX carries a $47.50 billion backlog and $93.52 billion in cash, alongside $18.37 billion in quarterly capex, $15.83 billion of which went into AI compute, with a market cap of roughly $1.16 trillion. Even after Wednesday's rally, SPCX trades 33% below its intraday high of $226 on June 16, and the tell into the close is whether it can hold above $151 and turn the IPO open price into support rather than a ceiling, with the next Starship V3 test flight, any Pentagon follow-on Starshield task orders, and updates on the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition expected to close in Q3 as near-term catalysts.

SpaceX's AI computing business has flipped to positive adjusted EBITDA, a shift that could help lift the company from its roughly $2 trillion market capitalization toward $3 trillion. The AI segment, the smallest of SpaceX's three businesses in 2025 at about $3.2 billion in revenue, jumped to $3.4 billion in sales by the second quarter of 2026 after SpaceX began renting out spare capacity from its Colossus supercomputer instead of using it solely to train Grok. Starlink remains the only consistently profitable segment at scale, generating $7.5 billion in revenue, or roughly 60% of the company's total, along with $2.8 billion in operating income and $4.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA through June 30, with 12 million subscribers. The space business, which includes Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches, generated $1.6 billion in revenue from 78 launches in the first six months of the year but is still losing money at the operating line because Starship development is consuming billions in research and development costs. SpaceX has signed AI capacity deals including Anthropic at $1.25 billion a month for Colossus 1, Google Cloud at $920 million a month starting this fall, and Reflection AI at $150 million a month in a contract worth up to $6.3 billion, while CFO Bret Johnsen said the company is on track to reach a $100 billion annual run rate by the end of this year.

A series of agreements between US and Vietnamese companies in sectors including energy, technology, aviation and finance are expected to be announced next week to coincide with the New York visit of Vietnam's top leader, Communist Party General Secretary and State President To Lam. The plans were revealed by officials and documents obtained by Reuters. An internal planning document lists 29 agreements that could be announced at a business conference in New York on the 23rd, which Lam will also attend. The contents of the document are subject to change, and it does not set out the specific details of the planned agreements. US energy companies Murphy Oil and Chevron are expected to announce agreements with Vietnamese state oil and gas company PetroVietnam, while ExxonMobil is expected to announce an agreement with PetroVietnam Refinery and Petrochemical, Vietnam's second-largest refinery. Vietjet, Vietnam's largest private airline, is expected to announce it will lease up to 22 aircraft from four leasing companies, comprising 17 Boeing 737s and five Airbus A321neos. SpaceX is also set to announce an agreement to provide its Starlink satellite internet service to 120 Vietjet aircraft. The planning document also includes an agreement between US-based Meta and Vietnam's Ministry of Culture, and one between US semiconductor giant Qualcomm and Vietnamese telecom company VNPT. Visa, Mastercard and Citibank are also expected to announce agreements with partners in Vietnam's domestic financial and hospitality services sectors.

AT&T announced a deal with Amazon to become the first telecom company in the U.S. to offer broadband satellite services via Amazon Leo, which uses the tech giant's low Earth orbit satellite network. AT&T, which already offers fiber and 5G, says that with satellite services it is now uniquely positioned to provide reliability by bringing together three critical network layers. The move comes as investors have worried that SpaceX's Starlink internet service might chip away at AT&T's market share, and the company has shown it will not be passive in that area. AT&T stock has declined 12% over the past 12 months while the S&P 500 has risen more than 16%, and it trades at less than nine times trailing earnings with a dividend yield of 4.3%, far above the S&P 500 average of around 1.1%.

Auria announced a partnership and contract with Mitsubishi Electric Corporation to deliver next-generation satellite communications capabilities using Auria's Kythera Operating System mission and resource management software. Under the deal, Auria will supply software to dynamically and autonomously manage, optimize, and orchestrate payload and network resources for Mitsubishi Electric's next-generation, software-defined SATCOM satellites, drawing on the Kythera Operating System, part of Auria's HeliOS product line, to enable autonomous service provisioning, real-time resource optimization, orchestration of space and ground assets, and adaptive mission operations. Auria will also provide its KOS Interference Manager module, a HeliOS capability that detects, geolocates, and mitigates signal interference. Auria CEO Damian DiPippa said the combination of Mitsubishi Electric's software-defined satellite hardware with Auria's resource management and mission optimization software will let Mitsubishi Electric customers leverage higher capacity and more flexible, resilient, responsive, and efficient SATCOM services, while Auria SVP Growth Andy Musliner said the partnership marries Mitsubishi Electric's advanced satellite systems with the intelligent software needed to manage and optimize them. Mitsubishi Electric, a pioneer in Japanese space technology since the 1960s, recorded consolidated revenue of 5,894.7 billion yen, or U.S.$ 36.8 billion, in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.

SES announced the successful launch of its eleventh, twelfth and thirteenth O3b mPOWER satellites, completing its second-generation medium Earth orbit constellation. The three satellites lifted off at 2:49 pm local time aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. They join the 10 O3b mPOWER spacecraft already in operation, bringing the full constellation to 13 satellites offering services ranging from tens of Mbps to multiple gigabits per second of capacity to any site. CEO Adel Al-Saleh called the launch a defining milestone that reinforces SES's ability to deliver resilient, secure and scalable connectivity for governments, enterprises, cloud providers and mobility customers. The newly launched satellites are expected to become operational by mid-2027, expanding high-performance connectivity capacity in underserved and remote environments and advancing SES's next-generation MEO network strategy.

Jim Cramer picked Space Exploration Technologies Corp. as his fantasy flex player on the September 8 episode of Mad Money, citing the company's multi-faceted growth across rockets, Starlink and AI. SpaceX reported second-quarter total revenue of $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-over-year and beating Wall Street estimates by nearly $1 billion, with a Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.09 that also outperformed estimates. The connectivity segment, supported by Starlink, reached 12 million subscribers, while enterprise and government demand pushed segment revenue higher, and the stock trades at roughly 50x to 68x forward sales estimates with a market capitalization hovering near $2 trillion. The company still reported a net loss of $541 million for the quarter, with quarterly capital expenditures running at nearly $18.4 billion to fund Starship manufacturing and orbital compute infrastructure alongside Connectivity and Space operations. Insider Monkey's database of over 1000 hedge funds shows 119 hedge funds held SpaceX during Q2, with VY Capital holding the most prominent position at 271.8 million shares, followed by BAMCO Inc. with nearly 145.8 million shares.

Eutelsat announced on September 11, 2026, the extension and expansion of its long-standing partnership with StarTV, part of Grupo W Com, one of Mexico's leading direct-to-home television providers, for continued delivery of satellite television and next-gen services via the EUTELSAT 117 West B satellite. Under the renewed multi-year agreement, StarTV will expand its use of satellite capacity on EUTELSAT 117° West B to support the growth of its service portfolio, including direct-to-home television, educational content initiatives, and NVOD, or Near Video On Demand, over IP across Mexico. The deal reinforces the 117° West orbital position as one of the most important video neighborhoods in Mexico and Latin America. Jean-François Fallacher, CEO of Eutelsat, said the expanded partnership shows how satellite continues to evolve alongside the changing video landscape, expanding access to high-quality entertainment and digital services across Mexico. Jose Aguirré Campos, CEO of Grupo W Com, said the partnership has allowed the company to offer low cost pay TV services in Mexico and to launch new services such as NVOD via Broadcast, which is expected to help reduce churn and give customers access to movies and TV shows, especially in remote places without accessible ISPs.

SES announced the launch of SES CORE, a first-of-its-kind content orchestration and hybrid delivery platform that lets broadcasters and media customers manage, monitor and enable transmission of content via satellite, fiber and IP through a single interface. Built on an infrastructure-neutral architecture, the platform brings multiple distribution technologies into a unified orchestration layer so customers can select the most effective delivery path while guaranteeing service reliability and consistent delivery of high-quality content to global partners. SES CORE gives customers real-time visibility into service status by monitoring active content feeds, provides network performance insights, automates operational tasks and offers redundancy options, helping broadcasters manage distribution more independently and efficiently. Deepak Mathur, President of Media at SES, said broadcasters are navigating increasingly complex distribution environments and that SES CORE provides a unified platform designed for the future of content orchestration and hybrid delivery. SES, headquartered in Luxembourg and listed on the Paris and Luxembourg stock exchanges under the ticker SESG, said the launch follows its Intelsat acquisition and more than 100 years of combined global industry leadership.

Pivotal Research initiated coverage of SpaceX on September 8 with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, implying roughly 49% upside from recent trading levels. Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak framed the entire investment case around a single variable, writing that SpaceX's roughly $2 trillion valuation rests almost entirely on Starship reusability, with each vehicle needing to fly 20 to 50 times with relatively cheap, fast refurbishment between launches. He argued that success would let SpaceX deploy far more Starlink satellite capacity and collect tolls from other companies operating in orbit, while failure would leave SpaceX "a different and much smaller company." The call lands amid a wide range of Wall Street views, with targets across 37 analysts spanning $62 to $450 and roughly three-quarters rating the stock a Buy, after SpaceX priced its June IPO at $135 a share and raised $85.7 billion in the largest public offering in history. Second-quarter capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion, including $15.83 billion for AI infrastructure, prompting Bank of America to reiterate a Buy rating and $235 target, JPMorgan to raise its target to $240, Wells Fargo to cut to $215 from $230, and Piper Sandler to lower its target to $140. More than 300 million additional SpaceX shares become eligible for sale on September 9, with a second tranche of similar size scheduled for September 24.

SpaceX is overhauling how it builds its data centers, a shift that could slow the pace of new construction, according to a report from The Information. A new management team drawn from the company's rocket division is prioritizing reliability over speed, installing more backup power and cooling systems and testing them more thoroughly before data centers go live, a departure from the rapid buildout of the Colossus campus in Tennessee, where xAI brought its first data center online in just 122 days. That speed brought trade-offs including frequent outages, and a construction-related outage at the Memphis facility last week knocked some Grok models offline and affected compute customers including Anthropic and Google. More than a dozen data-center leaders have left in recent weeks and been replaced by SpaceX engineers, and CEO Elon Musk wrote on X after the outage that the company was taking corrective action to ensure it does not happen again. Separately, Reuters reported that the UK has spent nearly $40 million on SpaceX satellite services, including around $17.6 million on Starshield, the military-grade version of Starlink with enhanced encryption, and $22.3 million on standard Starlink, deploying about 1,000 Starshield and 500 Starlink terminals, making the UK the first country outside the US to publicly acknowledge using Starshield. The gains came as SpaceX absorbed new share supply, with about 319 million insider shares, around 7% of insider stock, becoming eligible for sale on Wednesday, the 90-day mark since SpaceX's June 12th IPO. SpaceX went public at $135 a share in June, raising a record $85.7 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation while floating less than 5% of its stock.

Iridium Communications and Deutsche Telekom IoT announced the successful transmission of a voice message over Iridium NTN Direct in a demonstration with Toyota, following the completion of technical integration and a global roaming agreement between the two companies. The message was sent from a Toyota vehicle equipped with a Nordic Semiconductor nRF9151 development board and a Deutsche Telekom IoT SIM, and was transmitted entirely via the Iridium satellite network during Telekom Satellite Day 2026. The first message sent, "testing, testing, one, two, freeway," demonstrated standards-based NB-IoT voice messaging over Iridium's fully operational low-Earth orbit satellite constellation, supported by Fraunhofer's AI-based NESC Voice Codec, which operates at bitrates of 1 kb/s or less. With the roaming agreement now completed, eligible Deutsche Telekom IoT customers using compatible standards-based NB-IoT devices will be able to roam between terrestrial networks and Iridium satellites, and selected European customers are already testing applications on the Iridium network using Deutsche Telekom's Global SIM. Iridium NTN Direct is slated for commercial availability in Q4 2026, extending coverage through Iridium's existing global L-band LEO constellation for automotive, logistics, remote utilities, smart agriculture and emergency response applications.

Telesat and Farcast have successfully completed a collaborative technology demonstration, validating Farcast's electronically steered antenna technology for the Telesat Lightspeed network. The program culminated in an over-the-air test using Telesat's LEO 3 satellite, where Farcast established end-to-end connectivity with performance closely matching predicted link budgets. This milestone paves the way for developing a fully integrated user terminal combining Farcast's antenna platform with the Telesat Lightspeed modem. Telesat's Chief Technology Officer Michel Forest called the results an important step in validating the technology, while Farcast CEO Siamak Ebadi highlighted the teamwork over the past four years. The next phase focuses on modem integration and moving toward production for Telesat Lightspeed.

National Telecom Public Company Limited, or NT, has launched its NT nexConnect service, a low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite broadband internet from Eutelsat OneWeb, as an official service provider in Thailand. The service targets corporate clients, government agencies, and remote or signal-dead areas, as well as maritime use, with highlights on data security and data routing management through the Satellite Network Portal (SNP) Gateway infrastructure located in the country. NT also plans to launch NT Rural Wi-Fi in the form of hourly coupons for remote villages within the fourth quarter of 2026, and will introduce packages for the general public in early 2027. However, NT clarified regarding the comparison of service fees with other providers in neighboring countries at 1,440 baht per month, that NT's packages start at 9,200 baht per month excluding VAT, but are designed for corporate clients and specialized missions, and should not be directly compared with services for general consumers.

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said the company's planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications will expand its satellite communications business without directly competing with Elon Musk's Starlink or Amazon's Leo. In a CNN interview, Beck emphasized Iridium's L-band spectrum, which can penetrate bad weather and buildings, and said Rocket Lab could eventually provide something new and unique that hasn't been seen before. He also highlighted defense opportunities and the ability to replace damaged satellites within hours using a low-Earth orbit constellation. The news comes as Rocket Lab was onboarded to the United States Space Force's NITE-STAR program, a $981 million contract vehicle supporting space test and training infrastructure.

The U.S. Space Force has awarded five $12 million contracts under a $60 million effort to prove non-SpaceX satellites can plug into the Space Data Network backbone that SpaceX built under a $2.29 billion award in May 2026. The move comes as SpaceX completed its 100th launch of 2026, pushing the Starlink constellation past 11,000 satellites. L3Harris Technologies, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Viasat, and Iridium Communications are directly positioned to benefit from the Pentagon's push to avoid single-vendor dependency in space. Rocket Lab's $8 billion all-stock acquisition of Iridium, announced June 28 and targeted to close mid-2027, would create the only vertically integrated public SpaceX alternative, folding in 66 operational satellites and roughly $870 million in annual revenue.

Eutelsat Communications reported full-year 2025-2026 results with total revenue of €1,235.9 million, down 0.6% on a reported basis but up 3% like-for-like. LEO revenue surged nearly 70% year-on-year to €297 million, now representing 25% of group total revenues, while video revenue declined 13.1% to €519 million. Adjusted EBITDA fell 6.5% to €632 million with a margin of 51.2%, and the net loss narrowed to €457 million from €1.1 billion a year earlier. The company completed a €5 billion refinancing package and secured a $350 million call-off contract under the Nexus framework with the French Ministry of Armed Forces. CapEx came in below expectations at €594 million, and net debt dropped to €1.46 billion, improving the net debt to EBITDA ratio to 2.32 times from 3.9 times.

Starlink, the satellite internet service operated by SpaceX, has begun taking orders in Vietnam after the Vietnamese government approved a trial of the service in the country. Households can order through the website starlink.com.vn. Home internet packages start at 1.13 million dong, or about 1,400 baht per month, excluding equipment costs of 8.66 million dong, or about 11,000 baht. Vietnam is the sixth market in Southeast Asia where Starlink has launched service, following Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Timor-Leste. The Vietnamese government has capped the number of users during the trial at no more than 600,000 and set the trial period to run until the end of 2030.

SpaceX reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, with revenue surging 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion and net losses narrowing to $143 million from $541 million. CEO Elon Musk guided for $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 and expects annual recurring revenue to reach $100 billion by year-end, up from a $10.4 billion run rate in June. The AI compute segment, serving clients like Alphabet and Anthropic, generated $2.6 billion in revenue, a 247% increase, while Starlink connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.3 billion with subscribers doubling to 12 million. SpaceX shares, which went public earlier this year at a near $2 trillion valuation, fell from a high of $225.78 to a low of $105.62, a 53% drawdown that aligns with the average tech IPO's 55% peak-to-trough decline within its first year.

Thaicom Public Company Limited, or THCOM, unveiled its 2027 business plan, moving forward to expand into a full-service space technology provider. It will also change its name to Gulf Space Technology Public Company Limited and its stock ticker to GST, subject to shareholder approval at a meeting on 15 September 2026. In the satellite business, the company expects Thaicom 9 to begin service in the third quarter of 2027 after resolving technical issues. Thaicom 10, its largest satellite, has pre-sold about 50% of its capacity and will start service in the first half of 2029, delayed from the second half of 2028 due to the launch schedule. Meanwhile, Thaicom 4 will extend its service life until late 2026 to maintain revenue during the transition, with plans to temporarily migrate customers to Thaicom 6, Thaicom 7, Thaicom 8, and partner satellites. The company expects the USO Phase 3 project auction results in the third quarter of 2026, and combined with a new Indian customer, this will push Thaicom 6 and Thaicom 8 to near-full capacity utilization in 2027. For the second quarter of 2026, the company posted revenue of 497 million baht, down 7.1% year-on-year but up 9.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 87 million baht, narrowing from a loss of 207 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026, cash stood at 3.116 billion baht, slightly down from 3.22 billion baht at the beginning of the year, due to 833 million baht spent on satellite construction and ground equipment.

Gilat Satellite Networks reported second quarter 2026 revenue of $122.7 million, a 17% increase from $105 million a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA rose 31% to $15.4 million. GAAP operating income was $4.7 million, compared with $5.7 million in the prior-year period, and non-GAAP operating income climbed 35% to $12.6 million. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance for revenue between $500 million and $520 million and adjusted EBITDA between $61 million and $66 million. Gilat also confirmed that its acquisition of Comtech’s Satellite & Space Communications segment is on track to close toward year-end, a deal expected to create a company with more than $700 million in pro forma annual revenues.

As SpaceX prepares to release its first-ever earnings report after Tuesday's market close, investors are beginning to wonder whether Elon Musk's space venture is overvalued or not. Portfolio Wealth Advisors president and CIO Lee Munson stated that short-term profitability will be judged by Starlink's subscriber growth, as it provides cash for the Starship rocket system. He noted that while Starlink's performance is critical now, longer-term success depends on Starship hitting milestones to avoid massive spending that could offset Starlink's gains. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma added that JPMorgan flagged concerns about a lock-up expiration releasing about 12% of total shares, alongside uncertainty around the AI business and a potential Tesla merger, contributing to the stock's pullback since its IPO.

SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings as a public company on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, after its historic IPO in June. Investors will scrutinize five key numbers to assess whether the company's $1.4 trillion valuation is justified. These include total revenue against a Wall Street consensus of $6.82 billion, Starlink average revenue per user which fell to roughly $66 per month in the first quarter of 2026, AI revenue guidance following a $920 million per month Google Cloud deal, connectivity segment margin where Starlink is profitable, and full-year guidance which will be provided for the first time. The update comes ahead of the first lockup expiration later this week, when insiders can begin selling shares.

SpaceX shares have fallen nearly 16% from their June 2026 IPO price of $135 to $113.50 as of July 27, reducing the value of a $1,000 investment at the offering price to roughly $841. The stock initially rose on overwhelming demand, with investors reportedly submitting more than $250 billion in orders for less than 5% of the company's publicly traded shares, but later gave back gains as the market questioned its lofty valuation. SpaceX's Connectivity segment, driven mainly by Starlink, generated $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit in the first quarter, though that profit figure excludes the full cost of launching Starlink satellites, which are capitalized and depreciated over time. The company also has a $1.25 billion monthly compute contract with Anthropic through May 2029, but its AI segment posted a $2.47 billion operating loss in the first quarter, leaving Connectivity as the main profit engine for now. Looking ahead, second-quarter results are due on August 4, and around 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors could become eligible for sale soon after, potentially increasing supply and near-term volatility, while a planned $60 billion stock-funded Cursor acquisition and a $25 billion bond offering add dilution and interest costs. SpaceX trades at roughly 38.5 times the consensus 2026 revenue estimate of $39.3 billion, a premium that depends on Starlink maintaining strong margins, Starship becoming a reliable commercial system, and the AI segment reaching profitability.