The heart of a modern weapon isn't gunpowder — it's the "permanent magnet" made from rare earths. It drives the motors in drones, steers missiles, and turns the mechanisms inside fighter jets. The problem: over 90% of the processing and magnet-making at this level sits in China — the same country the West is arming against. This is the story of taking back the military's deepest "bottleneck" — with governments themselves putting up the money to build the mines, the separation plants, and the magnet factories.
China Rare Earth Group in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, sources say
China Rare Earth Group, a state-owned rare earth giant, is in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, according to two people familiar with the matter. The talks began this year, and China Rare Earth Group wants to take a controlling stake, the sources said. If a deal is reached, Shenghe's holdings in overseas companies would be transferred, including a 3% stake in US rare earth company MP Materials, which would put China Rare Earth Group in the position of investing in MP, whose largest shareholder is the US Department of Defense. A successful acquisition would bring one of China's last major privately owned rare earth mining and refining companies under China Rare Earth Group, ending a decades-long effort to consolidate the sector under state control. Shenghe acquired Australia's Peak Rare Earths last year. According to one of the sources, a deal would make it easier for Shenghe to secure the quotas the Chinese government uses to manage supply. China Rare Earth Group, Shenghe Resources and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.
Trump and Xi to discuss trade in Washington, with agriculture, energy and rare earths in focus
US President Donald Trump is set to hold trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 24, with trade in agricultural goods, energy and rare earths among the key issues both sides have used as bargaining chips in the trade war and which are likely to be raised again. On agricultural goods, one of the major US exports to China worth 29 billion dollars in 2024, China agreed to buy 25 million tonnes of soybeans a year from the United States through 2028, according to the White House, and US officials said China also agreed to buy an additional 17 billion dollars of other agricultural products during Trump's visit to Beijing in May. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on September 3 that incentive measures to promote US agricultural sales to China could be announced. On energy, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, September 15, that energy tariffs could be part of a 30 billion dollar reciprocal tariff reduction package, which was signalled after the May summit but has not yet been implemented. Meanwhile, US energy imports between 2020 and 2024 were worth between 7.5 billion dollars and 12 billion dollars a year. As for rare earths, where China controls production and has restricted exports to the United States, the issue has not been fully resolved. Reuters reported that US officials have demanded China honour its commitment to maintain continuous deliveries of these critical raw materials, and ahead of this summit the United States signalled the possibility of lifting some sanctions while threatening to impose additional ones. Trump said he would consider lifting some sanctions after the visit to Beijing.
EU Sets October Deadline for China to Rebalance Trade
The European Union is demanding concrete action from China to rebalance trade with the EU, setting a deadline for initial results by this October and warning that it will use every tool at its disposal if there is no progress. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič held a phone call with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on September 17, covering issues including the management of goods exported to the EU, greater market access in China for European companies, and controls on rare earth exports. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said serious negotiations remain important, but the EU wants to see concrete initial results from the meeting in Beijing in October, which will show whether both sides are moving from words to outcomes. The EU currently runs a trade deficit with China of more than 1 billion euros, or 1.1 billion dollars, per day, prompting the European Commission, as well as Germany, to keep up pressure on China. EU leaders are scheduled to discuss and consider countermeasures to China's trade practices in mid-October. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned on September 16 that the trade deficit with China has reached a critical turning point, and that while some see the EU as facing a second China shock, it has already arrived. Šefčovič stressed to reporters that he wants to see a clear signal that negotiations will move toward concrete positive results during next month's visit to China, where discussions will cover ways to increase exports of European goods to China as well as adjustments to customs tariff conditions.
Xi-Trump Summit to Put AI Rivalry, Tariffs and Yuan in Focus
Artificial intelligence, a lingering trade war and the yuan will likely dominate the agenda of the upcoming US-China summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, with analysts focused on whether the two nations can reach concessions or put guardrails around key areas of competition. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. survey shows 46% of offshore and 38% of onshore investors expect Chinese stocks to rise after the talks, while only a small minority foresees losses, though overseas exchange-traded fund flows and options positioning suggest foreign investors remain wary ahead of the summit, according to Tony Lee, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s equity-derivatives strategist. AI is widely expected to be a central topic, with access to advanced US chips, safety standards and disputes over the pace of the industry's development among key points of contention, while the fate of a soon-to-expire one-year tariff truce, Beijing's export curbs on rare earths and the value of China's currency may also be in the spotlight. Expectations are high that the summit may result in an extension of the bilateral trade truce that will expire in November, after the two nations have started talks over slashing tariffs on certain goods, including American energy and agricultural shipments, as well as lower duties on Chinese inputs for manufacturers. The yuan may also be discussed, especially after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in August that many people considered the Chinese currency undervalued; the yuan has strengthened around 4% against the dollar this year, making itself Asia's top performer.
Western Star Resources Acquires 14 Lode Claims and 25-Year Surface Rights at Eagle Point Tungsten Project
Western Star Resources Inc. announced the acquisition of fourteen lode mining claims contiguous with the western boundary of its Eagle Point Tungsten Project in Hidalgo County, New Mexico, together with a Surface Use Agreement granting exclusive surface-use rights for mineral operations for an initial five-year term with renewal options for up to 25 years. Consideration for the claims and the Agreement is a cash payment of C$150,000 and the issuance of 4,000,000 common shares on closing, plus a 1.5% net smelter returns royalty granted to the vendors, of which the Company may repurchase 1.0% for a one-time payment of C$1,000,000. The claims were located by the vendors under the Bureau of Land Management Notice of Intent to Locate process, which applies to split estate lands where the federal mineral estate is administered by the BLM and the surface estate is privately owned. The Agreement permits up to 200 acres of active disturbance at any one time, with Western Star controlling the timing, methods and pace of operations, and it is freely assignable. Historical trenches and excavations documented in 1950s U.S. Government examination reports under the Defense Minerals Exploration Administration programme now sit within the expanded land position, and the Company has expanded its ongoing UAV magnetic survey to cover the enlarged property. Closing remains subject to customary conditions including receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals.
EU Opens Door to Canada as First Associate Member, Aiming to Deepen Tech, Defense and Energy Cooperation
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced on September 16 that the European Union is opening the door to welcoming Canada as the bloc's first associate member, a new cooperation framework never before specified in EU treaties. Speaking during her annual policy address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, she said the two sides will cooperate comprehensively across areas ranging from smart manufacturing, critical strategic minerals and energy to AI, and will establish a technology alliance, integrate their defense industrial bases, and push to make the Arctic region a flagship cooperation project. The EC President stressed that this partnership is not aimed against anyone else, while many observers see it as Europe's effort to avoid confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump. The move marks a major policy shift for the EU, which has in the past generally rejected flexible membership categories, with most EU member states still reserving judgment on Germany's May proposal to grant Ukraine associate member status as a path toward full membership. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said earlier this week that Canada is seeking a unique partnership with the EU but does not want full membership. The EC President has invited Prime Minister Carney to a meeting in Strasbourg, and the Canadian leader is scheduled to deliver a speech on Thursday, September 17, following a historic rupture in Canada-U.S. relations caused by failed trade negotiations last month that led to tit-for-tat tariff measures.
US Lacks Effective Tools to Halt China's AI Catch-Up as Rare Earth Retaliation Looms
The United States is struggling to find effective means to prevent China from becoming an AI superpower. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, in a 3,800-word essay, called for banning sales of advanced AI semiconductors to China and tightening crackdowns on smuggling, but President Trump has signaled openness to allowing sales of some chips to China, including Nvidia's H200. The biggest challenge for the US is avoiding provoking further tightening of export controls by the Chinese government on rare earths used in precision-guided missiles and drones. Last year, President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to a truce in which China guaranteed rare earth supplies in exchange for tariff reductions, and that agreement is likely to be extended when Xi visits the White House next week. Although China still lags in semiconductor production, AI models developed by companies such as DeepSeek and Moonshot AI are narrowing the capability gap with the most advanced US models, often at a fraction of the cost.
Victory Metals Granted Mining Lease M20/564 at North Stanmore
Victory Metals Limited announced on 14 September that Mining Lease M20/564, covering almost 2,006 hectares near Cue, Western Australia, was granted on 11 September. Cashu Research had named the mining licence in its 19 August report as one of three milestones that would most materially de-risk North Stanmore, placing it in a 2026-27 window, and it arrived early. The Pre-Feasibility Study, released 18 August alongside a maiden Ore Reserve, put the build cost at A$155 million including 30% contingency, down 54% from A$337 million at scoping, with a A$1.21 billion post-tax NPV8, A$1.76 billion pre-tax, a 240% post-tax IRR and roughly 1.5 years payback from first production across 20 years at 2.4Mtpa, about 29,000 wet tonnes a year of concentrate and A$6.5 billion in life-of-mine revenue. A non-binding EXIM letter of interest for up to US$190 million is already on the table, roughly 1.8 times the entire build cost. Victory Metals CEO Brendan Clark described North Stanmore on release of the study as one of the lowest cost heavy rare earth projects in a geopolitically safe region, with its value carried by dysprosium and terbium, both inside China's April 2025 export controls, which were never suspended, while the broader October 2025 package expires from suspension on 10 November 2026.
Tungsten West has announced plans to restart operations at the Hemerdon mine in Devon, England, with full-scale production targeted for the first quarter of 2027. The company is installing six TOMRA Mining XRT ore sorters equipped with OBTAIN Deep Learning technology as part of a redesigned processing plant at the mine, which was shut down in 2018 and acquired in 2019. The six sorters, split between COM Tertiary XRT and COM XRT 2.0 units to handle material fractions ranging from 10mm to 80mm, are scheduled for installation completion in the fourth quarter of 2026. Approximately 30% of the processed material, containing mineralised tungsten, will be sent for further concentration and tin recovery, while the remaining 70% will be made available as a by-product aggregate for the construction industry. The Hemerdon project is set to provide a substantial source of tungsten for European markets outside China, whose roughly 80% share of global tungsten concentrate production faces export restrictions and reduced domestic output, and Hemerdon's reserves could contribute around 4.1% of global production. Last month, the UK's National Wealth Fund announced an investment of up to $95.74m (£71m) in Tungsten West to support the restart.
Almonty signs binding tungsten partnership with Rwanda Government
Almonty Industries has signed a binding agreement with the Government of Rwanda to form a new tungsten-focused partnership, under which Rwanda will obtain a 25% interest in a new platform, Almonty Rwanda, while Almonty retains the remaining 75% stake. The platform aims to collect and export tungsten ore, pre-concentrate and panning tailings sourced from small-scale licence holders in Rwanda, with Rwanda contributing the Shyorongi exploration concession and a mineral processing licence to the project. A mobile processing unit is planned to upgrade these materials, and the partnership intends to export products until a collection and processing plant is built in the country, with the Government of Rwanda assisting Almonty Rwanda in acquiring material from local mine operators, landowners and licence holders. The initiative follows an introduction by the US Department of State under the 2025 US-Rwanda Framework for Shared Economic Prosperity, and both parties view the transaction as a first stage towards a broader investment framework covering future development and the construction of a centralised processing facility in Rwanda. The block, which encompasses around 32km² at Shyorongi, is designed to access near-term production from the existing output of the sector, and the new partnership comes as forthcoming US defence procurement regulations will require greater traceability of tungsten ore and feedstock from 2027.
China issues new rules giving officials power to bar citizens from leaving the country, aiming to stem the outflow of capital and tech talent
China has stepped up its controls on outbound travel, with new regulations issued by the Chinese cabinet and taking effect on September 15, 2026, giving officials the legal authority to bar Chinese citizens from leaving the country in certain cases, shifting from case-by-case travel bans to a permanent mechanism used to control the outflow of capital and highly skilled personnel. Under the new rules, officials can suspend outbound travel if it is linked to violations of export controls or the transfer of technology deemed a potential threat to national security, with technology personnel likely to face the strictest restrictions, after China had already restricted exports of rare earths, electric vehicle batteries and solar panels. Neo Wang, a China strategist at Evercore ISI, said the goal is to retain capital and personnel, which are crucial to driving China's innovation and raising productivity, while Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, sees the new rules as making the system more permanent and expects stricter enforcement at the local level. On tax measures, in July China imposed a 20% income tax on assets transferred to overseas trusts since 2023, and in early September regulators also set a 20% tax on foreigners receiving dividends from foreign-invested companies, while Clifford Ng, a partner at Zhong Lun Law Firm, said clients with no family or assets left in China are more likely to decide to leave the country permanently.
EQ Resources Takes 10% Stake in U.S. Tungsten Processing Joint Venture
EQ Resources has agreed to take a 10% interest in a new U.S. joint venture that aims to restart the Springer ammonium paratungstate processing plant in Nevada. Under the binding framework agreement, The Elmet Group would own 70% of the venture and serve as operator, while Blue Moon Metals would hold 20% and EQ Resources the remaining 10%. The existing Springer facility is designed for roughly 4,000 tonnes per year of APT processing capacity in its first phase, and Elmet will provide the first $75 million of restart funding, which EQ Resources said is supported by financing from the U.S. Department of War. EQ Resources' direct funding exposure is limited in the initial stages: if restart costs rise above $75 million but remain below $100 million, it would fund 12.5% of the additional spending, capped at $3.125 million, while costs above $100 million would be shared by the partners according to their ownership stakes. The venture plans to enter into an eight-year, spot-priced agreement to buy an aggregate 4,000 tonnes of contained WO3 in concentrate from EQ Resources, equivalent to a nominal 500 tonnes per year after the plant is commissioned, and for the first five years EQ Resources would have access to as much as 1,000 tonnes per year of processing capacity at Springer, equivalent to 25% of the planned first-phase capacity. The agreement is not yet the final joint venture contract, with the parties targeting completion of the main agreements within 90 days and a site master plan within six months.
USA Rare Earth Completes $2.8 Billion Serra Verde Acquisition
USA Rare Earth has completed its $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde, a Brazil-based mining company that is the only scaled producer of the core four rare-earth elements in the Western Hemisphere. The company projects that the newly integrated Serra Verde business will achieve an annualized run rate for EBITDA between $550 million and $650 million by the end of next year, and that its combined businesses will reach approximately $1.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2030, up from just $5.8 million in second-quarter revenue and a $46.3 million operating loss. The U.S. government holds a roughly 10% equity position in USA Rare Earth that could rise to as much as 16% through stock warrants, and the Department of Defense provided $750 million in direct investment in a special-purpose vehicle that also included a $500 million credit facility from a Tier-1 institutional bank and a five-year purchase agreement for rare earth valued at least $300 million. Serra Verde had already announced a 15-year offtake agreement with multiple U.S. government agencies and private companies, securing access to 100% of its Phase I production of magnetic rare earth and guaranteed pricing floors for dysprosium and terbium. By contrast, TMC The Metals Company, which extracts polymetallic nodules from the seabed, has seen its expected NOAA certification pushed out to October and no longer expects to have its permit by the first quarter of 2027, though it still aims to begin commercial vessel commissioning in next year's fourth quarter.
Largo Restructures Debt With Caixa, Starts Copper-PGM Concentrate Sales
Largo Inc. announced a debt-restructuring agreement with Caixa Econômica Federal and its first sales of copper-platinum group metals concentrate. The definitive agreement with Caixa Econômica Federal was signed on September 11, 2026, following the binding term sheet announced on August 20, and Largo expects to enter similar agreements with its remaining Brazilian bank lenders. Separately, Largo extended the maturity of a $6.0 million promissory note with ARG International AG to February 2028 from February 2027, subject to a fee equal to 1% of the principal amount. The initial copper-PGM concentrate sales, made through agreements with two trading companies and a European smelter, are expected to generate approximately $4.7 million in cash proceeds during September 2026, while the first shipment under Largo's contract with the US Defense Logistics Agency is expected to arrive at a US port in late September. Largo also said its 2026 vanadium production is now expected to be at the lower end of its previously announced guidance range as it temporarily reduces mining activity and processes existing stockpiles, and it announced that Jim Bannantine will lead its commercial department while Francesco D'Alessio leaves to take a chief executive position elsewhere.
TD launches $150B five-year plan to accelerate Canadian investment
Toronto-Dominion Bank launched a five-year, $150B commitment to accelerate investment, growth, and innovation across sectors critical to Canada's economy. The commitment will support new lending, underwriting, advisory, and other financing activities across five key areas: energy, critical minerals and resources, defence and aerospace, digital and AI, and infrastructure. TD will also focus on supporting small and mid-sized businesses, Indigenous economic participation, sustainable growth, workforce readiness and AI enablement.
BMO to Mobilize Up to $70 Billion for Critical Canadian Sectors Over 10 Years
BMO announced it plans to mobilize up to $70 billion in new capital over 10 years for sectors critical to Canada's economic security and resilience. The commitment, described by the bank as Canada's first, targets electricity infrastructure including generation, transmission and distribution, energy infrastructure such as pipelines, transportation infrastructure including roads, airports and terminals, mining and critical minerals, AI computing, defence and security, and oil and gas. Chief Executive Officer Darryl White said the initiative builds on more than 200 years of financing Canadian growth, dating to 1817, and that the opportunities in these sectors represent the latest chapter in that story. The capital is expected to take the form of bank financing, debt capital markets activity and the raising of public equity, and reflects expected demand from initiatives proposed to Canada's Major Projects Office, projects supporting Canada's National Electricity Strategy, the Trilateral MOU among the Federal Government, the Province of Alberta and the Oil Sands Alliance, Canadian Sovereign AI initiatives, and proprietary BMO analysis for the defence and oil and gas sectors. BMO said it authorized nearly $300 billion in lending to over 270,000 Canadian businesses and organizations in 2025, invested approximately $3.4 billion in Canadian companies and innovation ecosystems, and has more than 30,000 employees across Canada.
Guardian Metal Signs Tungsten Origin Verification Deal With Oritain
Guardian Metal Resources plc has signed a collaboration agreement with Oritain Global Limited to develop a database of origin fingerprints for tungsten, supporting provenance verification for governments, industry and end consumers. The inaugural database will include tungsten from Guardian Metal's co-flagship Tempiute and Pilot Mountain projects in Nevada, with the company delivering initial samples from both sites to Oritain. The agreement is particularly timely ahead of January 1, 2027, when U.S. defense procurement restrictions under Section 854 of the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act, implemented through DFARS 252.225-7052, are expected to drive tighter traceability requirements across the tungsten supply chain. Those requirements were further reinforced by Executive Order 14415, signed on July 20, 2026, which restricts sourcing waivers for covered-country materials and directs comprehensive supply chain mapping and traceability across U.S. defense procurement. Oritain CEO Alyn Franklin said forensic origin verification is becoming a necessary ingredient for durable critical minerals supply chains, while Guardian Metal CEO Oliver Friesen called the agreement a meaningful step toward building a fully transparent and verifiable tungsten supply chain entirely on U.S. soil.
EU invests €530 million in Greenland to counter US influence
The European Union (EU) has announced a significant increase in investment in Greenland, signaling clear geopolitical competition in the Arctic region. The EU is preparing investments of around €200 million for 2026-2027 and has proposed expanding its long-term budget to as much as €530 million for 2028-2034, a dramatic increase. The focus of investment is shifting from fisheries and education to strategic industries such as critical minerals, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and satellites. This move comes after Donald Trump pushed for the US to take control of Greenland, citing security reasons, which was firmly rejected by both Greenland and Denmark. The visit of the European Commission President to Greenland is therefore a political message that Europe stands ready to support Greenland in maintaining the balance of power in the region. This investment helps reduce dependence on minerals from China and strengthens Europe's technology supply chain security. Meanwhile, global warming is causing ice to melt, opening new shipping routes and access to rare earths beneath the ice sheet, which are essential for producing EV batteries, wind turbines, and computer chips. Greenland's Prime Minister has welcomed cooperation with the EU to bring in funds for infrastructure development, improving quality of life, and strengthening the economy.
US Administration Seeks to Expand Involvement in Venezuela's Mineral Resources
The Trump administration is seeking to expand access to Venezuela's mineral resources, including gold. Following last month's agreement on oil to secure interests, it aims to extend its dominance and influence over other resources as well. Three people familiar with the matter disclosed this on condition of anonymity. If this effort materializes, Venezuela's mining sector would be opened to US investment, allowing US companies to secure not only oil but also mineral resources critical to national security. Moreover, it would expand President Trump's efforts to more closely tie Venezuela's resources to US strategic and economic interests, following the detention of President Maduro in a US military raid in January. The administration is considering a wide range of measures, including an executive order focused on critical minerals, and US officials have held meetings with companies to gauge interest in investment and participation.
USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) stock recorded strong double-digit gains in August, with its share price climbing 19.2% according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.6% rise and the Nasdaq Composite's 3.9% gain. The surge was driven by the company's announcement on August 24 of the finalization of a special purpose vehicle (SPV) deal with the U.S. Department of War, which included a $750 million direct investment, a $500 million debt facility, and a five-year purchasing contract worth at least $300 million, all contingent on the completion of the Serra Verde acquisition. The company's second-quarter results, reported on August 10, showed an adjusted loss of $0.15 per share on sales of $5.82 million, missing Wall Street expectations, but the SPV news overshadowed that disappointment. On September 4, USA Rare Earth completed its roughly $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde, a Brazilian rare-earth mining specialist, which is expected to generate annualized EBITDA by the end of 2027 and contribute to a combined EBITDA of roughly $1.8 billion by 2030.
USA Rare Earth Rises on China Supply Freeze, Then Retreats
USA Rare Earth shares rose 4% to $18.35 before falling back to $17.70, as Chinese suppliers reportedly refused to ship rare earth materials to U.S. customers, highlighting the need for a domestic supply chain. The company completed its merger with Serra Verde Group on September 3, giving it scaled heavy rare earth production in Brazil, and Thras Moraitis, former CEO of Serra Verde, will succeed Barbara Humpton as CEO on October 1. China accounts for 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing, and the Trump administration has finalized a $1.55 billion funding package to develop domestic supply chains. Peers MP Materials and Critical Metals are also affected, with Critical Metals' Greenland project still pre-production. A Xi Jinping visit to Washington on September 24 could influence rare earth licensing policies.
Some rare earth suppliers in China are declining to ship to the U.S. for fear of repercussions from the Chinese government, a problem that has been added to the U.S. planning agenda ahead of President Xi's planned September 24 visit to Washington, Reuters reported Friday. The suppliers have refused shipments since early August, when China imposed sanctions on the Responsible Business Alliance, a U.S. supply chain monitor, following earlier stoppages by other Chinese companies to avoid geopolitical entanglement. In response, shares of Critical Metals rose 6.2%, USA Rare Earth gained 4.9%, MP Materials advanced 3.5%, Energy Fuels climbed 2.8%, and Cameco added 1%. An unnamed U.S. official said the Trump administration continues to press Chinese counterparts to honor commitments made in Busan and Beijing over the past year to ensure smooth rare earth export licensing. While exports of many rare earths and related magnets have rebounded since China's April 2025 restrictions, prices for certain materials with military or sensitive applications, such as yttrium, indium phosphide, and tungsten, remain near record highs with tight supply.
Jefferies flags critical mineral bottlenecks as electrification demand grows
Jefferies initiated coverage of several advanced materials and energy-efficiency companies, naming Element Solutions and Almonty Industries as top Buy-rated picks, with IperionX and Materion also rated Buy, while NioCorp Developments, Fireweed Metals Corp, and Standard Lithium received Hold ratings. Analyst Laurence Alexander argued that electrification, AI, and rising defense and space investment are creating durable demand but also supply bottlenecks across critical minerals. The firm estimates energy investment requirements of $65 trillion to $250 trillion depending on policy, and predicts "spasmodic bottlenecks" including fly-ups in rare earth processing in 2028-32, lithium conversion in 2027-30, nuclear enrichment in 2035-40, and grid transformers in 2034-42. These bottlenecks are relatively small compared to the broader transition, with nuclear enrichment requiring about $2 trillion, lithium about $0.5 trillion, and rare earths about $0.3 trillion. Jefferies recommends favoring companies with improving returns on invested capital and margins, a strategy that has generated a compound annual return above 15% since 1999.
China Shock Dominates G20 Agenda, Leaving China Isolated
At the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting held in the United States, the 'China shock'—reflecting economic friction originating from China—became the biggest point of contention, and a joint statement was shelved due to China's opposition. Concerns over regulations on rare earths and other critical minerals, as well as dependence on exports, have also spread to the Global South, putting China in a difficult position where it is forced to rebut not only the US and Europe but the whole world. On July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce published a rebuttal document on the issue of 'overcapacity,' arguing that its huge trade surplus is 'the result of technological innovation and market competition.' However, the US, as the chair, persuaded the Global South by explicitly addressing critical mineral regulations and developing country debt. Japan faces dual pressure in rare earth procurement and export competition. About a decade ago, the G20 also saw clashes over steel overcapacity, but this time China's growth model itself has come under fire. Huang Yiping, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, also pointed out that 'major countries cannot rely on external demand for growth.'
Taiwan Companies to Invest Additional $20 Billion in US
Taiwan companies are preparing to expand their investments in the United States by an additional $20 billion, following continued growth in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology and chips. Taiwan's Economic Minister Kuo Ming-yen revealed that the Ministry of Economic Affairs has assessed additional investment plans by Taiwanese companies beyond TSMC and found plans for roughly $20 billion in additional investment, driven by a significant increase in AI and semiconductor orders. However, the names of the companies and details of the investment plans were not disclosed. Previously, TSMC announced in July that it would increase its investment in Arizona by an additional $100 billion, bringing its total investment in the US to $265 billion. Meanwhile, Bill Fraunhofer, executive director for semiconductor investment and innovation at the US Department of Commerce, said that the investment plans of Taiwanese companies reflect a shared commitment to building a secure, resilient, and innovative semiconductor and electronics supply chain. These projects will enhance US capabilities in critical technologies and support innovation that will shape the coming decades. This move comes amid US pressure on Taiwanese tech companies to increase their investments in the country to support its goal of expanding domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity, following President Donald Trump's criticism that Taiwan "stole" US semiconductor business. The Taiwanese government views such accusations as unfair but continues to encourage Taiwanese companies to increase their investments in the US.
US awards Alcoa $174M for Australian gallium plant
The U.S. Department of War will provide $174 million in financing to Alcoa Corp. to build a gallium plant at its alumina refinery in Western Australia, as Washington moves to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals. Gallium is essential for high-performance semiconductors used in defense technologies, and China controls about 98% of global production, having banned direct exports to the U.S. in 2024. Alcoa has begun construction on the Wagerup facility, expected to produce roughly 100 tons of gallium annually, in partnership with Japan's Sojitz Corp. and JOGMEC. Assistant Secretary of War Michael Cadenazzi called the agreement landmark, securing vital supply for the defense industrial base.
Japan to Submit Record 7.8 Trillion Yen Budget to Boost AI, Chips, and Rare Earths
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is considering proposing a record budget of 7.8 trillion yen, or about 49 billion dollars, for fiscal year 2027 to accelerate investment in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and other strategic industries, which are central to the government's economic drive under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The budget is part of a plan for 370 trillion yen in public and private investment in key industries over 14 years. Within the 7.8 trillion yen, the ministry will allocate 6.31 trillion yen to the Strong and Prosperous Japan Investment Framework, including 2 trillion yen for developing AI, semiconductors, and robotics, and another 680 billion yen for security of critical minerals, including rare earths. Meanwhile, 220 billion yen is for enhancing naphtha supply capabilities, and 180 billion yen for upgrading defense and dual-use technology capabilities, jointly with the Ministry of Defense. This budget allocation reflects the geopolitical and economic security challenges Japan faces, including technological competition among major powers, oil supply impacts from the war in Iran, and China's use of rare earths as a bargaining tool.
Former PM Morrison Calls for Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chains in Quad
Australia's former Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the 26th, at an economic security forum in Sydney, urged for further strengthening cooperation in building critical mineral supply chains through the Quad framework of Japan, the US, Australia, and India, stating that "Japan and Australia are the backbone of the Quad" and advocating for them to take the lead. He also positioned South Korea as a "key partner." Morrison pointed out that China has economically coerced trading partners, including Japan, through measures such as export restrictions on rare earths, and warned, "China will turn off the export tap to achieve its own goals. It is always ready to weaponize it." He emphasized the need to avoid risks by stabilizing supply through cooperation among like-minded countries. Furthermore, regarding Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's stance toward China, he praised her for "speaking clearly," saying, "It is her achievement and we should support her."
Trump admits US faces aluminum shortage and must rely on Canada
US President Donald Trump has acknowledged that the United States has substantial demand for aluminum and still depends primarily on imports from Canada, even though he previously insisted repeatedly that the US did not need to rely on Canada. The admission comes amid intensifying trade conflict between the two countries, with a 50 percent tariff on metals becoming a central issue in the dispute. Trump said during a telephone address supporting Mike Mazzei, the Republican candidate for governor of Oklahoma, that the US needs aluminum badly, while conceding that the country does not have enough aluminum to meet demand and that most of it must be imported from Canada. Later the same day, Trump posted on Truth Social in support of a project to build an aluminum plant in Inola, Oklahoma, saying the plant is something the US urgently needs, and warning that if the project is not approved, the investment could move elsewhere. Currently, more than half of the aluminum consumed by the United States each year is produced in Canada, giving Canada a critical role in the supply chain for American industry, especially automobile manufacturing and appliances such as washing machines in Michigan, which is considered one of the key political battleground states. Last week, the United States and Canada came close to reaching an agreement that would cut aluminum import tariffs in half, but the Trump administration faced pushback from the domestic steel and aluminum industry, which urged the government to avoid making too many concessions to Canada. As a result, the issue has become one of the obstacles in trade negotiations between the two sides.
First Japan-India government event on critical mineral recycling held
On the 21st, the first Japan-India government-to-government event focused on recycling critical minerals was held at the Japanese Embassy in New Delhi, India. Around 130 participants, including officials from both countries and recycling businesses, took part, exploring future cooperation through panel discussions and presentations. The market for critical minerals, including rare earths, is dominated by China, which has strengths in smelting, and both Japan and India currently rely on imports. India in particular is the world's third-largest emitter of electronic waste generated from discarded electronic devices. The aim is to reuse the resources lying dormant in that waste and reduce dependence on China. The embassy co-hosted the event with Japan's Ministry of the Environment, and time was also set aside for participating companies to match with one another. Joji Murakami, president of the Indian subsidiary of Honda Trading, a trading company in the Honda group, explained that competition for rare earths is intensifying globally, and said that because Honda vehicles also use them in motor parts, the company is looking for Indian partners involved in recycling to move away from a supply chain overly reliant on China.
Largo surges on $82.2M debt restructuring with Brazilian banks
Largo surged 21.5% in Friday's trading after signing a binding term sheet with a syndicate of Brazilian banks including Banco do Brasil and Banco BTG Pactual to restructure US$82.2M of outstanding debt, extending the final maturity to March 2030. Under the proposed revised terms, principal payments will be subject to a six-month grace period, followed by three years of quarterly principal amortization, while interest will be paid monthly. The company said the restructuring will provide additional time to execute its operational plans and unlock incremental value from its existing operations at the Maracás Menchen mine. Largo is focused on ramping up production of copper concentrate and platinum group metals concentrate, progressing toward first commercial sales, and preparing for the first shipment of high-purity vanadium pentoxide to the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency under the US$60M first order announced in July.
Largo Inc. reported higher second-quarter production, sales and revenue, alongside a return to positive adjusted EBITDA, as improved ore availability and plant stability supported its vanadium operations at the Maracás Menchen mine. Total ore mined rose 46.6% year over year to 712,198 tonnes, vanadium production increased 28.5% to 2,900 tonnes, and revenue climbed 68.5% to $44 million. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $2.7 million, although cash operating costs and the net loss increased. Largo agreed to restructure approximately $82.2 million of commercial debt, extending final maturities to March 2030, and secured a $60.1 million U.S. Defense Logistics Agency delivery order. The company also began full-scale copper-PGM concentrate production on Aug. 7, temporarily pausing ilmenite output during the ramp-up, and maintained its 2026 vanadium guidance.
China's rare earth magnet exports to Japan halve in July
According to detailed trade statistics for July released by China's General Administration of Customs on the 20th, China's exports of rare earth magnets to Japan fell 52.2 percent year on year to 111 tonnes. The decline was the largest in one year and one month since June last year, and is seen as reflecting deteriorating Japan-China relations. Since January this year, the Chinese government has tightened export controls on dual-use items, including rare earths, to Japan, making clear its stance of using rare earths as a trump card for economic coercion.
CMOC's first-half net profit attributable to parent rises 86.3% year on year to 16.15 billion yuan
CMOC released its 2026 interim report, with net profit attributable to the parent up 86.3% year on year to 16.15 billion yuan. The company's first-half operating revenue was 135.32 billion yuan, up 42.8% year on year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent was 15.61 billion yuan, up 78.9% year on year; and net operating cash flow was 16.334 billion yuan, up 36.0% year on year. Second-quarter net profit attributable to the parent was 8.39 billion yuan, up 77.6% year on year. In the first half, the company completed the transfer of 100% equity interests in four Brazilian gold mines, moving toward an annual gold production target of more than 20 tonnes, and successfully issued 1.2 billion US dollars in zero-coupon convertible bonds for overseas project expansion and operational optimization.
US and Japan join forces to develop the world's deepest undersea rare earth mine
The United States and Japan are moving ahead with plans to develop a deep-sea rare earth mine near Japan's Minami-Torishima island in the Pacific Ocean, aiming to extract resources from about 6,000 meters below the surface. If successful, it would become one of the deepest undersea mining projects in the world and could help reduce China's grip on the rare earth supply chains of both countries. The issue was raised in talks between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during their meeting at the White House in March. Both countries see the deposits around Minami-Torishima as potentially vast enough to meet global industrial demand for several hundred years. The latest sampling results released by the Japanese government found several key minerals, including yttrium, gadolinium, and dysprosium, which belong to the heavy rare earth group where China holds overwhelming production dominance. Japan is preparing further test drilling and aims to complete a commercial plan by 2028. Several North American companies have begun showing interest in joining the project, including Deep Reach Technology, an offshore engineering firm based in Houston. Although discussions are still at an early stage, and Japan has so far carried out all exploration work, the expertise of US companies in the offshore oil and gas industry could play an important role if the project moves to the next phase. A key driver of the project is the desire to reduce dependence on China, which accounts for about 90 percent of global rare earth supply and has previously used export restrictions as a tool in trade disputes with the United States and in political tensions with Japan. For Japan, the issue has become even more pressing after China restricted rare earth exports to Japan late last year in response to Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan. Under the Japanese government's long-term growth strategy, roughly 5.7 billion dollars in public and private investment is planned by 2040 for undersea resource development, including the Minami-Torishima project. Although Japan has spent years trying to diversify its rare earth sources, such as investing in a separation plant in France and providing long-term financial support to Australian miner Lynas Rare Earths, it still imports about two-thirds of its total rare earths from China and relies almost entirely on China for heavy rare earths, especially dysprosium and terbium, which are critical materials for high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles. Chinese exports of both minerals to Japan have been at zero throughout this year. The potential of Minami-Torishima is considered enormous. A team of researchers from the University of Tokyo estimated in 2018 that the seabed mud south of the island may contain more than 16 million tonnes of rare earths. These minerals are strategic raw materials for the modern economy, from semiconductors and electric vehicle motors to missile guidance systems. Yttrium in particular, which is used in LED displays and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, is estimated by researchers to be sufficient to meet global demand for up to 780 years. Another advantage is that mineral samples from Minami-Torishima show no significant levels of radioactivity, unlike traditional onshore heavy rare earth extraction, which can release harmful radioactive elements. This could make processing easier. However, turning undersea resources into a commercial mine still faces major technical and economic hurdles, because the deposits lie about 6 kilometers deep, while current offshore oil drilling projects reach only about half that depth. Water pressure at the deposit site is about 600 times higher than at sea level, and there is still uncertainty about the impact on undersea ecosystems if full-scale commercial mining proceeds. Some private-sector assessments suggest the project could require several billion dollars in investment and take more than 10 years, while rare earth production costs could be about three times higher than extraction from onshore mines in China. Competition over rare earths also has a geopolitical dimension, after Chinese oceanographic survey vessels entered waters near Minami-Torishima on several occasions. An analysis of ship-tracking data by Bloomberg found that Chinese research vessels have surveyed the seabed up to the edge of Japan's exclusive economic zone. Tensions rose further in June 2025 when a Chinese aircraft carrier entered the exclusive economic zone around Minami-Torishima for the first time. While this did not violate international law, it caused serious concern in Tokyo, prompting Japan to protest to China and later deploy anti-ship missile systems to the island, as well as plan additional radar and defense infrastructure to monitor Chinese and Russian military activity. Japan plans to conduct a full-scale one-month mining test in February 2027, covering extraction, refining, and smelting, before assessing the feasibility of domestic commercial rare earth production the following year. If successful, the project would become Japan's only rare earth mine and could allow the country to build a supply chain from mining to magnet production entirely at home. However, some Japanese government officials acknowledge that the project has almost no chance of starting commercial operations within the remainder of Trump's term, raising questions about whether the United States will maintain long-term support. Even so, the Minami-Torishima project carries meaning beyond economics. It is also a strategic signal to China that the United States and Japan are building new alternatives, so they do not have to rely on China as the sole source of rare earths that are vital to both the technology industry and national security.
US unveils over $2 billion in new domestic mining projects
The US government has announced more than $2 billion in new projects to support the domestic mining industry, alongside over $180 million for mining workforce development. The Department of War confirmed investments including over $85 million for Standard Bauxite to supply refractory-grade bauxite, $150 million for Minnesota-based Niron Magnetics to develop rare earth-free permanent magnets for defense, $1.4 billion for California's Sila Nanotechnologies to expand silicon-carbon battery anode and lithium-ion cell manufacturing, and $400 million for Sunrise Energy Metals to establish a scandium value chain. The Export-Import Bank allocated $8 million to 5E Advanced Materials for boron production, $25 million to Westwater Resources for graphite extraction, and $25 million to Global Advanced Materials for tantalum and niobium development. The Department of Energy is providing $100 million to 14 mining schools to double capacity for mining-related qualifications, while the Department of War will give over $80 million to three schools for workforce and innovation initiatives.
Sunrise Energy Metals shares surge 29% after US pledges 400 million dollars for scandium mine development
Sunrise Energy Metals shares jumped 29% after the US government committed to a 400 million dollar loan to develop a scandium mine in Australia. The US Department of Defense disclosed that the Office of Strategic Capital has made a conditional commitment for that amount to Sunrise to support the creation of a fully integrated scandium value chain, starting with the Syerston project in New South Wales, which the company aims to develop into the world's first mine producing scandium as its primary product. The backing is part of President Donald Trump's administration's efforts to reduce reliance on China in critical mineral supply chains. China currently produces nearly 70% of the world's rare earths from domestic mines and accounts for almost 90% of global rare earth processing. If the transaction is completed, combining public and private funding, the project will be worth nearly 1 billion dollars.
MP Materials Q2 revenue more than doubles to $126.1 million
MP Materials reported second-quarter revenue and PPA income of $126.1 million, more than double the prior-year period, as NdPr sales volumes increased 127% year over year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA improved by $41 million to $28.5 million, and adjusted diluted loss per share narrowed to $0.01. The company completed its first heavy rare-earth separation circuit and expects to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year, while also securing a multiyear gadolinium oxide supply agreement with a U.S. aerospace and defense customer. MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors for qualification testing and continues to expect initial commercial magnet shipments in the fourth quarter, with construction underway at the larger 10X facility and full-year capital expenditure guidance maintained at $500 million to $600 million.
Trump Touts $3 Billion in US Critical Minerals Investments
President Donald Trump touted $3 billion in US investments in critical minerals mining at a meeting with top industry executives aimed at reducing reliance on supply chains dominated by China. The investments include a $1.4 billion loan agreement with Sila Nanotechnologies Inc. from the Defense Department's Office of Strategic Capital, $400 million by the Pentagon to expand scandium production in Australia, and $150 million with Niron Magnetics Inc., a Minnesota rare-earths firm. The Export-Import Bank is also working to provide more than $1 billion in financing for Ivanhoe Electric Inc.'s Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona, along with a $25 million investment to launch a graphite mine project in Alabama. Trump also highlighted plans to spend over $180 million on educational programs for the mining industry.
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth Secure U.S. Government Support for Domestic Rare-Earth Magnet Production
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are advancing their mine-to-magnet strategies with significant U.S. government backing aimed at reshoring rare-earth magnet production. MP Materials secured a 10-year price floor commitment, a 10-year magnet purchase agreement, $1 billion in financing, a $150 million Department of Defense loan, and a $400 million DOD stock investment, followed by a $500 million long-term supply agreement with Apple and a $650 million public offering. USA Rare Earth also received a supportive government deal, as both companies work to reduce reliance on China, which controls over 90% of the rare-earth market. The developments underscore the strategic importance of domestic rare-earth supplies for defense, electronics, and automotive industries.